Catastrophization - Science topic

Parametric curve

Note: We will address several questions related to this issue.

The Next Question: What is an alternative?

A fuse is a standard device found in any electrical system. Examples include a home, an automobile, a power tool, and many more. The fuse is common and comes in a relatively small variant of the required application and the amperage or load the fuse is expected to carry. For a particular application and load, fuses are typically interchangeable. If the FUSE fails, the circuit is open and will not conduct electricity. Plug in a new fuse, and the circuit is complete and resumes operation.

How many software programs are there in the world? Joseph Newcomer, Former Chief Software Architect (1987–2010) and Author have 14.7K replies and 3.7M answer views. Billions. Probably not trillions. But certainly, more than hundreds of millions. Some are one line long. Some are a hundred million lines long. And everything in between.

These software programs have insidious problems, such as:

• Lack of reliability.

• Lack of stability/unstable

• Excessively costly (billions) to build, purchase, and operate.

• Brittle

• Software projects continue to fail at an alarming rate.

This data immediately prompts two questions:

1. Is it a problem with the project methodology or how organizations administer software engineering projects?

2. Is it a problem with the quality of software engineers available within the marketplace?

1. Every software solution must be targeted for an operating platform, and invariably, a software engineer or team of engineers must build out not only the functional capabilities of the software but also must deliver the plumbing of the software itself. The multitude of questions must be addressed at the commencement of a software engineering project:

a. How does information move within the application?

b. What algorithms and patterns will be used, and which will be avoided?

c. How do different components interact?

d. Is there a need for a message bus?

e. Will the application employ services?

f. How is information stored, retrieved, rendered, reported, and transmitted to consumers of other details?

g. What are the performance requirements of the application?

h. What is the mechanism for recovering from routine application failures? Or catastrophic failures?

i. How do we prevent the application from suffering from design constraints that effectively lock the application from evolving to meet changing requirements over time?

j. How can we prepare for inevitable changes in requirements and ensure the integrity of the application across many design changes?

Functional and non-functional requirements must be vetted, and a solution that satisfies these questions and many more is needed. Plus, there needs to be a holistic methodology for efficiently documenting a software application's functional and non-functional requirements, neither at its inception nor throughout its lifecycle. Approaches to writing these requirements are as diverse as the number of software architectures today. For example, FUSE employs a holistic approach to software architecture; software design and applications are simply artifacts of the architecture and design.

We could spend hundreds of pages analyzing the many weaknesses of contemporary software engineering practice, but the purpose of our research is different. The compendium of research into the failures of modern software methods is vast, and each new methodology and technique introduced addresses point solutions to only specific problems and weaknesses in software engineering. Unfortunately, no unified and holistic software approach addresses the issues with prior methods.

One may ask, "How so?" or, "How did we get into this desperate situation?

Unfortunately, this specific line of questioning perpetuates the problem and keeps the software engineering community on the wrong track. The question pre-supposes that minor tweaks to how software is engineered are adequate to "fix" the problems that genius software engineers have bequeathed to our world. We cannot just tweak things as has been tried before. We cannot replace zero methodologies with waterfalls to fix how projects are managed. We need to replace waterfall with agile and get a better outcome.

We have made meaningful advances in Software Engineering in the past 50 years. Waterfall methodology was an essential improvement over the diverse approaches used before Waterfall methods were introduced. Object-Oriented Analysis, which led to Object-Oriented Design and Object-Oriented programming, was a similarly crucial step forward. This object orientation motivated the Gang of Four to introduce their notion of systems of patterns, ushering the concepts of patterns into the contemporary world of software engineering. So pervasive was this concept and so widely adopted that it is unlikely to find any software undertaking that does not employ the idea of patterns today.

However, if this is the case, why are the artifacts of software not improving markedly? Why do we still have failures with alarming frequency across all software projects? Shouldn't we expect more from software projects that employ the correct techniques and methods? However, again, this question needs to be corrected. It assumes that we can adjust a small error here or there and solve the fundamental and conceptual problems of software architecture, software design, and software development. There is little more to be done.

The sorting out of the devastating earthquake has catastrophic economic, social and political effects on the Syrian economy and society, which is already suffering from a devastating war for more than 12 years. All of this creates new economic and social behaviors and practices, represented in dependence on aid, theft of aid, trading in aid, chronic unemployment, and runaway inflation. All of the above will produce a new Syrian political economy, I think. The question is, can this case not be called the political economy of the earthquake?

The amount of medical waste generated from COVID-19 since the outbreak is estimated to be 2.6 million tons/day worldwide and is still growing. Such an amount of medical waste can be also attributable to global mask mandates which are still in force despite the global vaccine rollout. As the Wuhan spike protein-based vaccines have waning efficacy against transmission of new variants, medical mask mandates are still applicable, but there is a need to discuss more focused approach when it comes to medical masks recommendations/mandates in a incidence-dependent manner, meaning that higher the new COVID-19 cases stronger should be the recommendations/mandates, and vice versa, in case of significantly lower incidence of new COVID-19 cases, recommendations/mandates should be relieved. There is also a need for the development of new technologies in medical masks manufacturing towards easily recyclable and biodegradable protective medical equipment, if possible, as well as the need for the improvement of existing technologies for medical waste sanitation. Open scientific debate on the ecological sustainability in the context of COVID-19 pandemic is mandatory.

The question is basic relation of human mind with war in history

To Everyone out there - thank you for your comments in advance. I welcome all comments and suggestions.

I am involved in a project studying country/region level catastrophe response systems.

To be clear, I need to clarify my use of the term catastrophe.

Insurance companies define disaster and catastrophe differently. There are 2 main contextual differences.

Disasters are predicable and local.

Catastrophes are widespread (regions, country wide) and not predictable.

Disaster Example: Tornadoes in Oklahoma

Catastrophe Example: The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami

Our research is trying to codify differences in the context of (for example) widespread floods, fires, hurricanes, cyclones, wind events, chemical spills, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, etc. impacting a large geographic area.

Catastrophe Response:

Here is our Main Area of Inquiry (let's call this Q1):

In your country, when there is a large scale catastrophe, what international, country or regional Institutions are in control and what is the scope of their control (to what level are they responsible for the response)? Please clarify if they are governmental or public/private organizations. Also, are they local, regional or national? What does it take to elevate a regional catastrophe to receive country level (national) response? To what degree is the response elevated to international response?

Here is our Secondary Area of Inquiry (let's call this Q2):

To what degree are independent, non-governmental or local response organizations involved? (UN, Red Cross, local NGOs). If they are involved, how responsible are they (in a percentage compared to a government agency or military role)? In a catastrophe, to what extent (% response) is left up to local businesses, regional governments, local citizens?

We welcome ALL answers, comments and questions.

Thank you.

MT

Most of the studies on corporate accountability focus on the legal aspect. I'm looking for studies that focus on the lived experience on the ground and the aftermath. Thank you.

As we know there are 2 types of errors in hypothesis testing. Type I & type II.

When applied to real life situations, which are more catastrophic ?

Examples would be helpful.

Thanks.

The United Nations says we could have just 12 years left to limit a climate change catastrophe. The climate emergency has resulted from humans putting additional greenhouse gases in our atmosphere. These have heated our planet and at current levels are already a true disaster on a global scale. Unless removed, these gases will result in a level of global warming that will be catastrophic for humanity and much of the world's remaining ecosystems. http://www.caceonline.org/what-is-the-climate-emergency.html

With fast melting ice at poles, we must find alternative ways to conserve our resources and protect our Earth from facing catastrophic consequences

Flooding and associated loss of life and property has become a norm with several catastrophes in the recent years. I am interested in understanding how scientists and researchers can contribute towards preventive solutions. What sort of research can one pursue to gain skillset that enables better understanding of flooding patterns? Additionally, until we have "concrete" solutions, what can be done to alleviate the severity of the events?

Serious infection and SARS from Covid-19 presently has little specific treatment other than ventilator and oxygen, supportive care. We are urgently waiting for vaccination, immune care, antivirals, etc., to be made available for the masses. This was published in JAMA only two days ago, but things are evolving rapidly. Today, I am aware of three new articles, identifying the antiviral properties of chloroquine. I suggest that quinine is an even better agent than chloroquine, in malaria it has less resistance, has been tested and used extensively throughout the world, for more than a century, available ubiquitousl, and is inexpensive. It's safety, side-effects, and contraindications are widely know. It is over-the-counter, versus chloroquine generally requiring a doctor visit and an expensive prescription. Quinine is ubiquitously available as "tonic water" originally as prophylaxis and treatment for malaria. Perhaps this probable prophylactic and therapeutic antiviral agent can prevent the impending catastrophe. One glass of tonic water has about 100mg of quinine, which is a low dose. Not for patients on cardiac medications, side-effects, or complications. Is it time to notify the public that a little tonic water may be considered prudent at this time?

His disproof of cosmic expansion is a catastrophe for Stockholm, and for the young generation’s trust in their elders. And for the survival chances of humankind.

Sept. 24, 2020

water hyacinth has for a long time been a menace in Lake Victoria, Kenya, despite both social and economic efforts being put in place to curb its impact on the region's economy. Should more research and focus therefore be directed to its eradication or rather to maximizing the benefits that may be derived from the hyacinth?

Guerena, D., Neufeldt, H., Berazneva, J., Duby, S., (2015) Water hyacinth control in Lake Victoria: Transforming an ecological catastrophe into economic, social, and environmental benefits. Sustainable Production and Consumption. VL - 42

DO - 10.1016/j.spc.2015.06.003

Wherher 1T mode is only responsible for catastrophe in rocket engines. Whether equal 1L mode will not be similarly dangerous as 1T mode. Is it the case that 1L mode will damp, but 1T doesn't. Whether 1T mode possess the maximum acoustic energy?

I have questions regarding the report of the vaccine status from one company, that sent the stock price soring yesterday.

1. The report printed in part below stated that the subjects had only mild symptoms, and that all developed antibodies and immune response. But the news last night showed interviews with purported subjects who became so ill from the vaccination that they dropped out of the study. I don't see any of this reported by the company in the news. We have a discrepancy here that needs to be clarified. I really hope this is not the fiasco my vivid imagination can see brewing.

2. Admittedly, there are perhaps hundreds of labs working on COVID-19 vaccines. That being said, the first one to publish, will be making 500 million doses per year. There are 8 billion people to vaccinate. Maybe two doses required? I hope the people realize that this is going to be a long while before the vaccine is distributed and working. We will probably be beyond Phase Three of the viral death curve by then, and unwitting herd immunity if it takes too long.

3. I pray that there are people in that industry who have an influence on the ethics and morals of everything and everyone involved in this endeavor, to do the right thing this time. I pray that the catastrophe has evolved those ethics and morals in this time of need, and especially for future scenarios.

Could there have been some subtle underlying, seemingly unidentifiable cause of death that combined with the closely related catastrophes (eg asteroid impact hypothesis and/or disruption in animal food chain), these got me thinking because discerning virus effects in geological past is not a common practice in geology as far as I can relate, but I am open to insights from experts in this regard. Thank you

The mechanism of seismoturbidites, produced by catastrophic events, such as a strong earthquakes, is explained in the paper:

Mutti E., Ricci Lucchi F., Séguret M. & Zanzucchi G., 1984. Seismoturbidites: a new group of resedimented deposits. Marine Geol., 55-1/2, 103-116.

Organizational trauma may result from a catastrophic event, from repeated wounding, or the deleterious effects of an organization's work. The impacts result in patterns that cause the organization's people and culture to suffer. www.organizationaltraumaandhealing.com

What are your experiences of organizational trauma?

The outbreak of pandemic Covid-19 all over the world has disturbed the political, social, economic, religious and financial structures of the whole world. World’s topmost economies such as the US, China, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan and many others are at the verge of collapse. Besides, Stock Markets around the world have been pounded and oil prices have fallen off a cliff. In just a week 3.3 million Americans applied for unemployment and a week later another 6.6 million people started searching for jobs. Also, many experts on economic and financial matters have warned about the worsening condition of global economic and financial structure. Such as Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of International Monitory Fund (IMF), explained that “a recession at least as bad as during the Global Financial Crisis or worse”. Moreover, Covid-19 is harming the global economy because the world has been experiencing the most difficult economic situation since World War-II. When it comes to the human cost of the Coronavirus pandemic it is immeasurable therefore all countries need to work together with cooperation and coordination to protect the human beings as well as limit the economic damages. For instance, the lockdown has restricted various businesses such as travelling to contain the virus consequently this business is coming to an abrupt halt globally.

Keeping in a view the staggering situation G-20 nations called an emergency meeting to discuss worsening conditions and prepare a strategy to combat Covid-19 as losses could be reduced. The spread of the epidemic is picking up speed and causing more economic damages. It is stated by the U.S. official from federal reserves that American unemployment would be 30% and its economy would shrink by half. As for as the jobs of common people are concerned, there is also a real threat of losing their jobs because with business shutting down that shows that companies will be unable to pay to workers resultantly they have to lay off them. While when it comes to the stock market, it is severely damaged by Covid-19 such as the stock market of the United States is down about thirty percent. By looking over the existing condition of several businesses, most of the investors are removing its money from multiple businesses in this regard $83 billion has already removed from emerging markets since the outbreak of Covid-19. So, the impact of Covid-19 is severe on the economic structure of the world because people are not spending money resultantly businesses are not getting revenue therefore most of the businesses are shutting up shops.

It also observed that the economic recovery from this fatal disease is only possible by 2021 because it has left severe impacts on the global economy and the countries face multiple difficulties to bring it back in a stable condition. Most of the nations are going through recession and collapse of their economic structure that points out the staggering conditions for them in this regard almost 80 countries have already requested International Monetary Fund (IMF) for financial help. Such as Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan also requested IMF to help Islamabad to fight against Novel Coronavirus. Furthermore, there is uncertainty and unpredictability concerning the spread of Coronavirus. So, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) stated that global growth could be cut in half to 1.5% in 2020 if the virus continues to spread. Most of the economists have already predicted about the recession to happen because there is no surety and still no one knows that how for this pandemic fall and how long the impact would be is still difficult to predict. Besides, Bernard M. Wolf, professor, Economics Schulich School of Business, said that “it is catastrophic and we have never seen anything like this, we have a huge portion of the economy and people under lockdown that’s going to have a huge impact on what can be produced and not produced”.

As Covid-19 has already become a reason for closing the multiple businesses and closure of supermarkets which seems empty nowadays. Therefore, many economists have fear and predicted that the pandemic could lead to inflation. For instance, Bloomberg Economics warns that “full-year GDP growth could fall to zero in a worst-case pandemic scenario”. There are various sectors and economies that seem most vulnerable because of this pandemic, such as, both the demand and supply have been affected by the virus, as a result of depressed activity Foreign Direct Investment flows could fall between 5 to 15 percent. Besides, the most affected sectors have become vulnerable such as tourism and travel-related industries, hotels, restaurants, sports events, consumer electronics, financial markets, transportation, and overload of health systems. Diane Swonk, Chief Economist at the Advisory Firm Grant Thornton, explained that “various nations have multinational companies that operate in the world because the economy is global. For instance, China has touchpoints into every other economy in the world, they are part of the global supply chain. So one should shut down production in the U.S. by shutting down production in China”. Besides, Kristalina Georgieva in a press release suggested that four things need to be done to fight against Covid-19 and avoid or minimize losses. Firstly, continue with essential containment measures and support for the health system. Secondly, shield affected people and firms with large timely targeted fiscal and financial sector measures. Thirdly, reduce stress to the financial system and avoid con tangent. Fourthly, must plan for recovery and must minimize the potential scaring effects of the crisis through policy action. Concerning the serious and worsening conditions all over the world, nations need cooperation and coordination among themselves including the help and mature as well as sensible behaviour of people to effectively fight against Coronavirus. Otherwise, because of the globalized and connected world, wrong actions and policies taken by any state will leave a severe impact on other countries as well. This is not the time of political point-scoring and fight with each other rather it is high time for states to cooperate, coordinate, and help each other to defeat this fatal pandemic first for saving the global economic and financial structure.

The gravitational-redshift proportional size increase got overlooked for 113 years: Why?

A catastrophic fact.

March 17, 2020

Black swan risks are described as an extreme outlier events that come as a surprise to the observer, and in hindsight, the observer rationalizes that they should have predicted it. Those risks have the maximum impact, but the minimum likelihood, and it's never easy to predict them. How can we draw the line between realistic risk scenarios and those perceived as unrealistic, but nevertheless possible ones, with catastrophic outcomes?

If economic theory is about stripping a problem down to its absolute essentials, and deriving meaningful insights from those essentials. Then, how do we reconciled the game of resources allocation?

Excessive use of fossil fuels has recently (over the last 30 years) revealed itself as a major problem that could have catastrophic consequences, There are many paths to address this problem. The path most traveled recently is to replace fossil fuels with "renewable" fuels like wind, solar or even nuclear. There has also been a large push towards "biofuels" which to many means turning plants that could be food into fuel instead. There are obvious pros and cons with that approach.

Fossil fuels will probably still be around for a long time because no technology has stepped up as a clear successor of fossil fuels. Solar, Wind and Nuclear power have been the leading contenders ease the transition from fossil fuel to for a while now but they do not yet appear to be up to the task. What technologies do you believe are capable of replacing fossil fuels and providing a sustainable future for our planet.?

A gramophone gets music or the spoken word back from incised grooves in a disk. The grooves were made by vibrations laid down as sound in matter. Is it possible that Nature left its imprint in matter such as rock and metals (e.g. coins) that could be retrieved as sound from the past? For example, battles, impact of meteors and asteroids in the K/T boundary, 66 million years ago?

PGK2.2 is used for CRISPR CAS9 , but it has a catastrophic

transfection efficiency using lipofectamine.

A light caustic is the result of light reflected from a curved surface.

The attached images show an example of a coffee cup caustic and its geometry. A coffee cup caustic has two main parts:

cusp: Each of the pointed ends of the crescent of a coffee cup

caustic, formed by light rays making smaller angles on a coffee

surface.

fold caustic: The tails of a coffee cup caustic, formed by light

rays making larger angles on a coffee surface.

Another example of a coffee cup caustic appears in J.F. Nye*.

In general, F.J. Wright** observes that a caustic is the envelope

along which geometrical light rays coalesce.

The coffee cup caustic is an example of what is known as photonic catastrophe.

Photonic catastrophe theory comes into play here in the study of

sudden and dramatic shifts in the behavior of reflected light.

--------------

* Nye, J.: Natural Focusing and Fine Structure of Light. Caustics and Dislocations.

Institute of Physics Publishing, Bristol (1999). xii+328 pp., MR1684422

** Wright, F.: Wavefield singularities: a caustic tale of dislocation

and catastrophe. Ph.D. thesis, University of Bristol,

H.H. Wills Physics Laboratory, Bristol, England (1977).

Two step tensile failure has been observed in welded Al joint. I want to know the significance of two step tensile failure. Is it a type of failure which gives a pre-failure alert and is this failure has some extra advantage over sudden catastrophic failure which usually we see for tensile failure of Al joints. For reference, the image of the fractured zone and the corresponding tensile graph are provided.

According to the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) this year’s flu season is more damaging and dangerous than any other since the catastrophic “swine flu” epidemic of 2009.

The major apprehension of genetic engineering is that through recombinant DNA experiments , unique micro-organisms or viruses (either inadvertently, or sometimes deliberately for the purpose of war) may be developed that would cause epidemics and environmental catastrophes. Are these fears unfounded? Don't you think the benefits or potential benefits of genetic manipulation outweigh the downsides?

Hello! I would like to use some VR in my theses which should concentrate on firemen. I would like to ask if somebody know some programs which are for firemen or could be use as simulation of the situations there are in contact with? Meaning like natural catastrophe, fire, floods etc. Thanks in adcance for every lead!

Human beings are dependent on one another, that is what makes us as a society. But, can complete dependence on someone be always fruitful or it can be catastrophic?

Your valuable inputs would be appreciated.

Regards

Is solar geoengineering frightening science fiction or bona fide scientific research that someday might provide the tools for staving off catastrophic climate change? Does humanity still have a choice between such extreme and risky schemes and reduction of emission? Are we willing to shoulder the economic burden now, or are we going to wait until we have no alternative to such strategies?

While analyzing the socio-economic inequality in catastrophic health spending, I have converted my catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) variable into natural log transformation (rather than taking actual CHE) as a dependent variable for decomposition.

I have used following command in STATA 13:

gen logcata10=ln(cata10)

Here cata10 is the catastrophic health spending at 10% threshold.

I have obtained the odds of CHE (incurrence of catastrophic spending at 10% e.g. 16000 households out of say 100000 households), figures which is showing only the number of observations, and is showing 0 mean SD and other estimates.

I am unable to understand where I am doing the mistake.

Any timely help would be really helpful.

Thanks

Regards

Rinshu Dwivedi

Ethics committees get very concerned when a study involves the administration of questionnaires that ask participants to rate their levels of depression, anxiety, etc., or report if they have had some traumatic experiences. Although this concern is justified, I’ve found they tend to anticipate catastrophic scenarios that I have never observed in my clinical experience. Does anyone know of empirical studies that have examined the potential harm questionnaires could cause? Or any study investigating this area in general?

Many thanks


We have normally the 'stress due to 'climat changes'.

And the 'crisis' or catastrophe ?

How and why we are ready to bear the evil to protect our children and not the nature?

So we now see the capitalist system recover from the 2008-09 crisis and banks are back ruling the world. We seem more likely to see a catastrophic collapse of the world under the weight on global warming than an effective social regulation of financial capital.

What can be done? Especially in the developing or third world where the impact is most serious?

When a BMG sample is subjected to a tensile test, the sample deforms elastically with a maximum elastic straks and then fractures catastrophically .

During the 2017 edition of the World Science Forum Conference ( www.worldscienceforum.org) held at King Hussein convention centre, Dead Sea- Jordan 7-11 Nov. 2017 much emphases were put on the resilience and recovery issues after major disaters, I wanted to see more emphases on prevention agaist disasters, besides, man-quakes are more destructive than earthquakes, what is resilience in the case of a nuclrar holocaust ? whether accidental or or intentional? , knowing that every minute that passes brings humanity closer to this type of mega catastrophe, dont you think that we should focus on working towards a better informed World as a mean of prevention? So that no deceptive monopoly of media is possible.

In the coming years, communities across the United States will face the catastrophic effects of tornadoes due to a contribution of several factors.  Climate change will alter the coverage, frequency, and intensity of said events.  Tornadoes most frequently occur across the Midwestern and Southeastern United States, and these regions have seen rapid urbanization and an increasing number of large population centers.  These factors combine to put more communities at risk of being impacted by large, damaging tornadoes.  While devastating, these events provide an opportunity for redeveloping in a manner that reduces future risk.

 We are all very familiar with the concept of anthropogenic climate change, usually expressed in its negative to potentially catastrophic terms.

What is less frequently discussed is that pre-industrial levels of C0² had dropped to dangerously low levels. Low levels of atmospheric C0² pose a number of dangers to life on Earth, not only by the loss of the positive aspects of the greenhouse effect and to the ability of plant life to flourish, but in the evolution of alternative photosynthetic processes that have materially affected our abilities to grow food crops.

Did burning fossil fuels over the last 1000 years actually have a positive effect as well as the negative ones we are so frequently reminded of?

Many years ago I recall a paper in a high-impact journal (probably Nature, maybe Science) predicting the future of the human species. The argument, as I recall it (and this may be faulty) was that the population curve of the human race was an exponential increase up to a catastrophic threshold, after which it would collapse to a stone-age level again, stay like that for ~1 million years, and we would then become extinct. As the time before the crash is when most humans would be alive at any one time on the planet (a variation of the old argument that X% of humans that have ever lived are alive today), the probability is that we are now living in that time, and hence we can expect a complete collapse of the human race in 50 - 500 years. This I read sometime between 1988 and 1992 I think, so at this distance in time I may have many of the arguments wrong. With that caveat, does anyone recall this paper??

In relation to finding mechanisms of pain catastrophizing in healthy humans and what it will likely be when HPA axis is disrupted by disease.

I am aware of works on large scale social disorganization brought about by environmental crises, such as in the cases of Teotihuacan in Mexico and the fall of the Maya empire in Yucatán. But I am interested in cases where people were able to predict major change and prepare for it, not relying on modern technological prediction apparatuses. 

I am trying to formulate decision rules for capturing and segregating near miss catastrophic events in a risk management system. I would like suggestions on how to segregate near miss into robust system or intervention driven .

How can one design a mechanism to analyse this? Is there any research work on this?

Thank you