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If not forecasting, would you replace the forecast with a foresight prediction method?
We are entering the new year 2022 and it is at the turn of the year that many macroeconomic and microeconomic forecasts for individual markets and industries appear. On the other hand, companies listed on the stock exchange are happy to boast of their potential to create value in the first quarter of the year, present attractive forecasts of increasing sales, acquiring new customers and profits in the markets ... to tempt new investors into shares. Is it not sometimes as Peter Drucker stated years ago?
„The best way to predict the future is to create it.”
“Time is the scarcest resource. Unless it is managed, nothing else can be managed.”
What do you think about forecasting and planning the future?
I've added some inspirational leads
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Economic forecasting is the process of attempting to predict the future condition of the economy using a combination of widely followed indicators. Government officials and business managers use economic forecasts to determine fiscal and monetary policies and plan future operating activities, respectively.
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Hi,
I'm looking for insights on whether to forecast online sales with or without the returned stock. And what factors we shall consider.
Could you point me in the right direction? Thank you for any help you can offer.
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Will Covid- crisis boost shadow (informal, underground, parallel) economy? Will Grey (Parallel) Market Rise more?
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It is difficult to formulate one view, an international approach to this issue, or universal conclusions on this issue. In individual countries, before the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) pandemic, the scale of the development of the shadow economy was very diverse, both in terms of the scale of development, structure in terms of branches and sectors of the economy, correlation with specific economic processes, etc., as well as in the question of the correlation of the scale of the shadow economy development with specific determinants, regulations, fiscal systems, etc. of individual countries. On the other hand, the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic may favor the development of the shadow economy in certain areas, industries and sectors of the economy, in certain types of economic activity. An example is the practice of extorting government subsidies, which are granted to certain types of companies and enterprises, certain types of economic activities that have been in an economic crisis due to the pandemic, and / or economic entities that have been subject to a lockdown. The scale of this type of shadow economy may vary greatly from country to country. It is determined, inter alia, by the level of organization and efficiency of the subsidy control system.
Best regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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Will there be any Corruption after Covid-crisis? Will it be major problem of economy? Can you suggest papers and publications about this topic?
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Corruption is intensified in and after this health crisis; it is a good time to get a 'golden nose' by speculative and opaque gangs. The greater the fear and dilettantism the more money can be 'earned'. Yes, it is a huge jackpot, with many undercurrents.
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Management theory was for long dominated by Causation, (just think about Kotler, in other words Planning, Implementing and follow up.) a different theory that has gained momentum in the last years ( Even if it was first launched in 2001 by Saras D Sarasvathy) is the theory of effectuation that is means driven instead of ends driven. I studied those theories quite extensively but found that when it comes to effectuation there is still no consensus, in other words the theory is not yet mature, something that is in my view a bit odd since the theory is 20 years old just about. Why do you think it has taken such a long time for this theory to mature? my second question. What is the relevance of Kotlers Marketing Management today? Still relevant or? Your thoughts?
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Both causation (Kotler) and effectuation (Sarasvathy) are very relevant, when it comes to understand marketing management. Advancing research into cognitive biases of managerial marketing process requires a better behavioral understanding of bounded rationality and intuitive reasoning.
In this sense, marketing is much more a (open loop) process than a (closed loop) system, in terms of behavioral interplay between prospective client and offered product in all the bazaars of life.
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Most people expect businesses to behave the way friends do—like they trust and care about each other. How can we elevate the human experience in any organization?
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Thank you! Following! Best regards: Julia Doncheva
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Dear Colleagues! As far as, from your point of view, it is possible (and justified) to implement the concept of Life Long Learning in a professional academic career by completely withdrawing from a successful scientific (teaching) activity, including with a defended doctoral thesis activity in a professional business activity (possibly with a corresponding new education / degree), not connected in any way with research and teaching activities? Do you know and can you give examples of such personal career development?
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I started my career in higher education, then went to work as a contractor for the U.S. federal government after receiving a Ph.D. I now do both, work as a contractor and teach at a university. It keeps me motivated in both areas.
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Based on my experience, most purchases or mergers of companies do not provide long-term value to the shareholders and customers of the organizations. In fact, there is value destruction and generally the expected synergies are difficult to materialize in terms of competitiveness, especially in the case of companies whose negotiating power in the M & A process is lower. Can you tell me your impressions about it?
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A merger might provide some plants enhanced access to markets outside of the combined service territory, resulting in increased generation from those plants. If increased access to markets results in increased operations, there may be environmental impacts. Enhanced access to markets may arise if the merger results in lower transmission costs, lower marketing costs, or lower overall costs due to efficiencies gained through the merger.
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Fellow Programme in Management at EDII Ahmedabad was introduced to create scholars and thought leaders who can produce insightful research in enterprise creation and promote entrepreneurship widely. The Institute is happy to invite applications for its fifth batch of the doctoral level programme for the years 2018-22. The programme is designed to address the gaps in the availability of trained educators, researchers, business consultants and resource persons in entrepreneurship at higher learning institutions/professional organisations/ Government departments/industry in India. The cadre of academicians thus created will raise the standard of education and research, thereby ensuring wider acceptance of entrepreneurship as a career option in the society.
FPM programme focuses on:
1. Foundation of theoretical, empirical and applied aspects in major areas of Entrepreneurship.
2. Professional ethics and intellectual honesty.
3. Interdisciplinary research and training of high quality.
4. Proficient activities and joint academic efforts.
5. Networking with leading entrepreneurship and research institutions globally.
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Entrepreneurship is extremely important, complex, and susceptible to an almost unending set of challenging variables which threaten successful entrepreneurial efforts. The common rule of thumb is that 80& of all entrepreneurial ventures fail to last five years.
The success of your new program depends upon the quality of your academic group. I would be interested in learning more about them and their practical and scholarly achievements. Who are the thought leaders that you have brought into your group who are recognized as Subject Matter Experts whose work has increased the success of entrepreneurial ventures.
I like the idea that you recognize the moral and ethical implications of studying entrepreneurship. The field is fraught with enormous risk and uncertainty.
CC
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High Turnover rates are observed in the Consulting Sector
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Philip,
1. Speaking about measurement, not sure I understand what means "high" in your context.  It is a figure which is perceived as being "high"?  Or it is a particular situation where it is "higher" comparing with industry data?
2. I would do a research on people in the company to understand: their career expectations and plans, their professional development needs, other factors which are affecting their desire to stay or to go.  Based on culture, organizational maturity, business environment, here you can have lot of factors: social responsibility, business ethics, attitude toward environment, internal communication, etc. 
3. I would try to understand people which left the organization, or which just decided to do so, what were their reasons.
4. After having a list of factors at 2. and 3. I will look for commonalities, define some metrics, see if they are aligned with business strategy/operations, if not will align them. Based on this will be possible to design and action plan, start to implement it and measure the success!
Good luck! :)
Marcel
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Weak project management often results in undefined objectives, poor communication, and missed deadlines. Without managers, can flat organizations remain efficient and organized?
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Dear Manish,
Even in any flat organization, there is a project manager who has project plan and schedules in software (e.g., MS Project).  Moreover, project is broken down to WBS and he knows exactly when to start, when to finish, what is required, and how to run the project sequentially without affecting other work packages..  
Then the necessity of middle managers are minimized and flat organization may more  profitable than a tall organization provided that harmony of the project team is maintained.
Upananda
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Three terms used interminably in business need to know the scientific difference ,, 
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BUSINESS PLAN: What do you want to do? How do you plan to achieve it? this plan answer the question of "what is it?"
FEASIBILITY STUDY: Is your plan or idea feasible? Is it doable with reasonable probability of success? this answers the question of "is it do-able?"
MARKETING PLAN: How do you plan to move you idea or product to the consumers, or users. This plan answer the question of "how will you turn do it?"
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Am investigating consultant related variations in building construction projects. I want to find out the best approach considering the fact that I have singled out the consultant as the only project player.
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Interesting Sam,let try to check on RFIs.
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A new system of grading should be implemented in a large insurance company, what literature, tools or systems can be a help?
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A very broad based question...can it possibly be narrowed down a bit...property insurance, re-insurance, casualty, health, life... in any case the concepts of 'adverse selection' and 'moral hazard' have to be digitized via application of machine-readable algorithms. tschüss!