Armed Conflict - Science topic

State security is a concept that ensures a country's protection against internal and external threats, encompassing measures against various factors such as terrorism, cyber attacks, and military threats. Surviving in international and regional conflicts typically focuses on individual safety.

Individuals in conflict zones should create emergency plans, secure essential resources, and learn to respond appropriately to evolving situations. Factors like shelter, basic healthcare, and food security are crucial in this process. Both state security and individual survival involve a complex equation that requires coordinated efforts.

Devlet güvenliği, bir ülkenin iç ve dış tehditlere karşı korunmasını sağlayan bir konsepttir. Bu, terörizm, siber saldırılar, askeri tehditler gibi çeşitli faktörlere karşı önlemleri içerir. Uluslararası ve bölgesel çatışmalarda hayatta kalmak ise genellikle bireylerin güvenliği üzerine odaklanır.

Bireyler, çatışma bölgelerinde hayatta kalmak için acil durum planları yapmalı, temel ihtiyaçları için kaynaklar bulmalı ve gelişen olaylara uygun şekilde tepki vermeyi öğrenmelidir. Bu süreçte, sığınma, temel sağlık hizmetleri ve gıda güvencesi gibi faktörler hayati öneme sahiptir. Hem devlet güvenliği hem de bireylerin hayatta kalması, karmaşık bir denklemi içerir ve koordineli çabalar gerektirir.

The decision to go to war involves complex geopolitical, economic, and diplomatic factors. It is important to engage in open dialogue, seek diplomatic solutions, and promote international cooperation to prevent conflicts from escalating into global wars.

If you are interested in understanding the perspectives of scholars, it's advisable to consult experts in international relations, political science, and history. Scholars often analyze geopolitical trends, historical precedents, and current events to provide insights into potential conflicts and avenues for resolution.

Remember that maintaining peace requires the collective efforts of nations, leaders, and citizens worldwide. Promoting understanding, tolerance, and cooperation on a global scale can contribute to a more stable and peaceful world.

Hey there Manal Taha,

When it comes to verifying methodologies for GHG emissions in armed conflicts, it's indeed a bit of a wild west. The lack of a clear methodology from UNFCC and the inconsistency in factors used by academia pose a real challenge. In this chaotic landscape, precision is key.

Firstly, consider a multi-pronged approach. Collate data from various sources, cross-reference methodologies employed in different studies, and identify common factors. It might be worthwhile to look beyond UNFCC and academia to military sources or international organizations dealing with conflict situations. Sometimes, unconventional channels offer valuable insights.

Now, onto the intriguing question of why some studies factor in both the destruction and reconstruction of concrete buildings, while others focus solely on rebuilding. It boils down to the substantial CO2 emissions associated with the destruction phase. Concrete production and demolition emit a significant amount of CO2. Those studies taking a holistic approach recognize the environmental impact of both phases, offering a more comprehensive view of the emissions associated with armed conflicts.

In summary, the key lies in meticulous data compilation, exploring unconventional sources, and recognizing the environmental impact at every stage of conflict-related activities. It's a complex puzzle, but a methodical approach will help unravel it.

Good question, and good answer by Stuart B Jennings

Many fighters/members and supporters come from Europe, mostly from the UK and the Netherlands. Whether there are any European experts, and what kind of experts, is debatable, except for information on the development of chemical and biological weapons. Islamic State allegedly recruited experts in chemistry, physics, and informatics to develop mass destruction weapons and continue to wage war against the West.

Your research topic is very exciting. There are several qualitative research approaches available in scholarly literature. Since it is related to disaster and violent armed conflicts, I will suggest you to do case study method. You can have some in-depth key informant interviews both the professionals (like, psychologist , sociologist, psychiatrist) and the people who involved in such violent activities. Snowball technique may help to find out such people. Wishing you all the very best and looking forward to read your research.

I dont think so, as it is not binding.

World diplomacy is so complicated to be predicted.

Yes, I will send you a message.

Leah

Civil wars often occur in third world countries where the data is rarely available for this kind of question. However, you may look at the individual companies data that are known for investments in unstable regions such as the ME countries.

You could research what happened in Colombia as well, back in the 80´s when the Farc's first demobilized and formed the UP political party. Around 3.000 former combatants were killed. We have for sure an historical debt in this issue.

Thank you very much dear Mary C R Wilson

Weldon is echoing, almost "channeling" some of the reflections of Prince Andrei in War and Peace. Andrei is disgusted with the pomp and chivalry used to gloss over the facts of war.  He thinks to himself that it should be no-holds-barred.  Despite his disillusionment (?) he continues to serve honorably until his death.

As a member of the profession of arms, I thought it a very important part of my role to keep the Pandora's Box of armed conflict from flying completely open.  It was restraint of force that distinguished me from the thug.  Making war really bad won't stop it. War already is really bad, and it hasn't stopped.  No restraint + modern weapons means the end of everything.      

 Thank you very much, I will read this. Unfortunately the UK case is more complicated than that, declarations of war are one of the last remaining Royal Prerogative powers (decided by the Prime Minister on behalf of the monarch). However, within the last 10-20 years a Parliamentary War Powers Convention has developed, whereby even though it is not a formal law the Prime Minister is now  expected to ask Parliament before committing troops. The problem is that there are so many uncertainties about what requires authorisation and many deployments are able t be undertaken without Parliament's consent - such as embedded troops.

What restraints are there is the US around operations short of war - such as refuelling the Saudi-led coalition?

Dear Nossek,

I had a chance to read your article last year while i was looking for relevant literature to my research. I have to go back and read it again. Many thanks for your comment.

Regards

Yes armed conflicts have impact on biological diversity. Please have a look at these links for details.

Thank you Béatrice. I downloaded the articles and they are very helpful.

Here are some links - with statistical data - you might want to look at:

Getting out of Afghanistan (Jan 15), http://www.fastcompany.com/3041147/getting-out-of-afghanistan

Logistics: The high cost of leaving Afghanistan (Feb 2015), https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htlog/20150223.aspx

The crazy logistics of packing up the US war in Afghanistan (April 2014), http://theweek.com/articles/447435/crazy-logistics-packing-war-afghanistan

The mammoth military task of leaving Afghanistan (Jan 2014), http://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-25848662

In Afghanistan drawdown, US forced to take costly option in transporting military gear out (Sept 2013), https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/in-afghanistan-drawdown-us-forced-to-take-costly-option-in-transporting-military-gear-out/2013/09/12/6a5e260a-1bde-11e3-b4fb-944b778463f5_story.html

The big retrograde. Withdrawing from Afghanistan (Apr 2013), http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21576720-logisticians-face-practical-and-geopolitical-mess-relish-big-retrograde

In addition it might also be worthwhile looking at reports published by the US GAO (http://www.gao.gov) and the UK NAO (https://www.nao.org.uk)

While one might quibble about the "absoluteness" of the theory, it does appear that countries at high levels of democracy (e.g., FREE in Freedom House's annual assessment) are unlikely to go to war with each other.  The question, then, is what is the likelihood that the world will become entirely democratic?  Political demographers have shown that the constraints on getting to high levels of democracy are associated with the maturity of the population age structure (which can be measured in various ways). Countries with youthful age structures are rarely assessed as FREE, and if they attain FREE, they very rarely keep it for more than a decade.  The cross over in the probabilities for gaining FREE, and losing FREE is around 26 years of median age.  And about 50% of states that reach 28.9 yrs are assessed as FREE (that point is called FREE-50).  Thus, if one uses the UN Population Division projections to look into the future, one sees that states in the equatorial belt of sub-Saharan Africa are several decades way from making it to FREE-50 (optimistically). The same is true for some of the core Middle Eastern states (Iraq, Egypt, Syria, and many of the states of the Gulf).  

I've attached a paper published in the J. Intelligence Analysis -- this foresight system was developed in the National Intelligence Council in 2006-09, and is proliferating around foresight shops and planning office.  I've also attached two web essays that illustrate the use of this simple model, and (of course) its limitations.  The model was used to forecast the rise of democracy in North Africa (Tunisia) in two papers in 2008-09 -- so, there's some respect for the method, given the inability of regional specialists to understand the timing of democratization (I've pointed to one of those papers).  

The PSC theory can also be verified in the Colombian armed conflict. The reason may be due to multiple circumstances that make it difficult the situation between the different opposing parts. We would have to add also the analysis of the conflict from the gender mainstreaming perspective.

Another response, this time with a link for you:-

Hmm, tough one. If he contacts me on mgk92@hotmail.com I will see if I can assist in any way. Mike.

Also, more from Peter:-

Slight mistake on my part,the RENAMO leader was Alfonso Dhlakama and the FRELIMO leader was Joaquim Chissano, UNOMOZ (United Nations Organization in Mozambique) which was set up to oversee the ceasefire was made up of many nations including Italy, PRC (Peoples Republic of China, Zaire, Portugal (surprisingly enough as they had been the former colonial masters) and a small contingent of Japanese (the first time the Japanese Defence (land) Forces had been permitted outside Japanese territory since the end of WW2. The Peace treaty ending the Mozambique civil war was signed in Rome on 4th October 1992. After the peace treaty was signed some areas were administer by RENAMO and some by FRELIMO prior to the multi-party elections of 1994. wide scale demobilization of FRELIMO forces started in 1993-94. We were at one location when a truck full of demobilized FRELIMO soldiers overturned near our camp (three were killed instantly and almost 30 injured (2 of whom died before they could be evacuated by helicopter, to the UNOMOZ hospital, run by the Italians, in Chimioa. Owing to the weather conditions (it was the rainy season and the heavens opened) we had to use our medic and all our vehicles to evacuate the casualties to the nearest large town with a medical center. I had heard stories of lack of beds and hospital patients being laid on sheets of cardboard but it was the first time I had witnessed it for myself. As I said before the New National Army was probably made up (mainly) of ex FRELIMO career soldiers with some RENAMO intergrated. We had on the initial route clearance operation, a FRELIMO military observer and a RENAMO military observer, they were given the same tent to share and after some initial hostility became great friends. It was also rumoured that some ex FRELIMO soldiers had joined forces with some ex RENAMO soldiers and formed groups of bandits (there seemed to be a marked reluctance to give up weapons as there had been many who died from famine in the civil war, and I suppose an AK47 was one way of taking what food you wanted

Me:-

That's a really interesting story. It must all have been a fun-filled time for you! Was there a lot of IED work or was it mostly EOD bread and butter stuff?

Peter:-

Mostly mine clearance of suspected mined roads (we were clearing the roads of the towns along the Zambezi river from Caia to Muracca, Moracca to Senna, Senna to Chembo, Chembo to Chiramba, we were then clearing another road from Casa Banana down to another town (I forget the name). The trip to Maputo was just for a few days while the peace talks were underway then back into the field to deploy to the different locations in Sofala and Manica provinces. 6 months under canvass put me off camping for life!!!

There might be be more later for you. R.

Hello Abubakar

I could not find very much about your subject and don't think these papers include all you need:

An Assessment of Psychosocial Needs and Resources in Yola IDP Camps: North East Nigeria (2015)

This might also have some useful references:

Getanda, E. M., Papadopoulos, C., & Evans, H. (2015). The mental health, quality of life and life satisfaction of internally displaced persons living in Nakuru County, Kenya. BMC public health, 15(1), 1.

Very best wishes

Mary

You can have a look at the ECP Database on Conflict and Peacebuilding. It does not have exactly the information that you are looking for, but it contains updated information on the intensity of worldwide armed conflicts.

Methodologically, I believe that the connection between military expenses and GDP growth is very weak if you are looking at the effects of armed conflicts and economic performance. First, as some already pointed out, using military expenses as proxy for armed conflicts is not a good selection. Besides, the U.S. do not face an armed conflict as many other countries actually do. These conflicts are beyojnd their borders. So, it would be very interesting to develop a theoretical model that shows this connection and see if theoretically this effect is significant. And second, you need to define what armed conflicts are. For instance, there are several countries in Latin America and Africa with extreme violence and many thousands of people killed per year; so are these events counted as armed conflicts? Besides, some countries do not spend much money on arms. So, it would be very important to have first a precise definition of armed conflict and try to model it theoretically to have a look at your hypotheses.

Hezbollah, AMAL and Kataeb are parties with bloody legacy from Lebanese civil war. They are powerful parties in Lebanon today and their impact on political constestation is studied by many. It could be a comparative point which may expose a repeating pattern. 

Dear Mr. Andres Suarez Agudelo

To the question: Do the post-conflict affairs lead to rural environmental unsustainability?, the answer is yes! Yes because the whole country has, during the conflict and post-conflict period, been relegated to a completely disorganized and chaotic state or, in thermodynamics or Socio-Physicochemical terms, in a disordered state. Disordered states have low enthalpy since their resources have been impoverished and rendered unsustainable.

 Now sustainability is composed of environmental endurance, economical viability, and social equitability. The country facing the conflict is generally reduced to the dead level of sustainability at the cost of environment (ecology), economics, and social well-being. The biodiversity is sacrificed while the environment is degraded to the core; the economy is in bad shape, the partners in crime and the arms suppliers are the only ones who are economically well placed, rest of the masses are either unsettled or preparing to leave/migrate. Rural area is worst sufferer, its resources have been rendered useless. Socially the families are in miserable state, their future is not certain; they may be waiting for their turn to get kidnapped or get internally displaced. 

The beneficiaries of the conflict are those who trade in narcotics and arms. It is never ever in the interest of the arms suppliers that clandestine trade in narcotics should slow down or narcoterrorism should be routed.

I am presently working on the hypothesis that Hate begets hate, and Terror begets terror but neither hatred nor terrorism can be annihilated; they assume different forms instead. This hypothesis is based on the famous Laws of Physics and Thermodynamics, as well as Physicochemical Sociology. Terrorism and safety/security have evolved a mechanism to accommodate one another. Terror at times overpowers security but soon enough the negative forces are passivated but not eliminated. The mode change is part of the socio-physicochemical process and has been going on since ages. Time has shown that there is no winner in wars against terror.

 America has waged many such wars and abandoned when it reached a no-win situation, but not before its economy reached the break-even point. Eisenhower had warned the Americans that the US economy is built on wars, especially after World War II. Now it has almost gone to the point of no return; the US can no longer function as the sole Superpower unless it engages an enemy and has one or two wars going at a time.

 American help in Columbia was in the form of technological and intelligence-driven defense and security apparatus, better training and equipment, but the same raised the defense expenditure to about 4% of GDP. Narcoterrorism and actions of FARC have a grave social impact on the citizens of Colombia. 40 years of multi-party conflict between the army and illegal armed groups including insurgent groups, notably the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) have led over four million Colombians to be internally displaced, according to the Consultancy on Human Rights and Displacement (CODHES).

The aftermath of success of Plan Colombia in defeating much of the FARC is noted in the slowdown of economic development of Colombia, while many of the poor rural farmers have no other option but to grow coca and pay the tax enforced by FARC.

War in Iraq finished the country but not without destroying most of it and all the women and children who were supposed to be freed are worse off now. Afghanistan is in shambles after over a decade of war, but Americans still do not believe that Terror may beget terror yet terrorism cannot be annihilated.

War on terrorism is in all respects an unevenly matched conflict between powerful state military machine and underground units engaged in asymmetrical warfare reminiscent of the early phases of the Thirty Years' War. It is an unbalanced game between an organized system with visible and open targets everywhere and a vast network of disjointed units that are difficult to find until after they surface up with an attack. The same was true with the Holy Roman Empire in its effort to rein in the Protestant German princes and their religious zealot advisers during the Thirty Years' War.

Dr. Mirza Arshad Ali Beg

Certainly this has not happened, especially that in this period, King Hussein was preoccupied with the events of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, and the beginning of the peace process in the Middle East in the autumn of 1991. Since the Hamas movement against the peace process, while Jordan participated under the leadership of King Hussein in the Madrid Peace Conference, of course, is the no meeting point between the parties

More important is the protection of common and innocent people who have nothing to do with the conflict. When peoples' protection is not ensured protection of cultural property is extremely difficult. More than armed conflicts, industrial development, pollution, population pressures of a country put the cultural treasures at high risk.

This is an interesting but rather dry topic. Dry in the sense that very little documented information is available. I worked for the Nigerian Railways when the war broke out. I was at a remote station that was used primarily for traffic operations (crossing trains) on the single line block system. The only link between the station and the world outside was the railway block telegraph system.The phone was an open line system, connecting all stations from Lagos up to Minna at the Northern end of the Western District sector.  Through this phone the traffic controller in Lagos gathered information about the position of any train on the network. When the war broke out, it was the means by which Ibo railway officials living in the North of Nigeria informed themselves of developments in the civil unrest.

I cannot give exact dates here. But when the first round of kiilings of Ibos started in 1966 in Northern Nigeria, the railway stations served as a haven for fleeing Ibo natives. They took the first available train (passenger or goods) going south to Lagos from where they found their way to the East. An Ibo staff at my station,asked m e to check for the position of any train. He returned to his quarters to prepare his wife and new-born  baby to leave. He came back out with just a package, probably food for the baby. The train stopped, they boarded, and were gone.  I remained because, although an Easterner, only Ibos were originally the target.  About the next evening, I received a call on the block telegraph from a staff at a station close to Minna. He reported a mob attack on a waiting room full of passengers waiting for train to flee, but were killed indiscriminately. Other Easterners non Ibos began to leave, using the railway because it seemed the safest means. However, a mob attack on on a passengers train at a station was a cause for concern. There was the report of a bold train driver who decided to break the rules to save his passengers fleeing southward. The train was booked to stop at a station (Zungeru, I believe). The driver had been hinted that a mob awaited his Ibo passengers if he stopped at the stain. The driver, reportedly drove through the station without stopping, and so could take his passengers through, alive. 

Reports of attacks on stations and trains compelled me to leave my station on a goods train. It became clear that strategic locations on the railway line were now in some way check-points. For example, every train coming from the North must cross the bridge over the River Niger on its way south. Every train was stopped on this bridge for military checks. So was mine. The soldiers searched everyone and every coach before it was allowed to leave the bridge. I arrived in Lagos and was assigned to Ibadan where I worked until the war was over. in 1971.

As regards use of the railway for movements of soldiers or for the war effort, it is very unlikely that the railway could serve such a purpose efficiently. I have three works on the civil war. (1) Thirteen Years of Military Rule 1966-1979 by James O. Ojiako mentions plans to revolutionize transport and communication only in the famous 30 billion Naira budget. (2) Why We Struck by Adewale Ademoyega (1981) offers some insight into the movement of troops by military vehicles from he barracks. (3) The Giant of the Cemetery by Jimmy Essien (1985) virtually weeps over the deplorable state of public transportation as "trains strain" along at snail speed. Such transport system could hardly serve reliable military purposes. Soldiers travelled by train or by road, etc, but I do not know of any real effort to use the railway for such a purpose. I would suggest that you find out if the railway served the purpose of transporting heavy military equipment from North to South.  I do not think that it would be difficult to find out by inquiring at the goods sheds at depot stations such as Apapa, Iddo, Ebute-Meta, Ibadan, Kaduna and Kano. 

Good luck with your work.

I would like to add to Roos' answer. Your question is indeed ambiguous.

At an individual level, children recruited to armed groups can be categorized in many ways, including: abduction vs. voluntary recruitment, age, gender, or in terms of other individual characteristics. Individual data on children actively participating in an armed group will no doubt be difficult to obtain. Such data for the most part is country specific and comes from surveys of demobilized individuals.

The alternative is to consider the armed group as the unit of analysis, whereby the mode of recruitment or the focus of recruitment activity could be categorized.

What is most important is that you have a theoretical reason for considering the categorical distinction.

Dear Adrein,

Given the times, the issue you are dealing with is not just topical but very imperative. My speciality is urban planning but just like everyone else violence, like an evil wind, touches everyone, one way or the other. I believe you have seen the piece on "Someone Stole My Smile: An Exploration into the Causes of Youth Violence in South Africa" edited by Patrick Burton (2007) < http://scholar.google.nl/scholar?q=faith-based+organization+and+curbing+violence+in+south+Africa+&btnG=&hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5>.

Besides, a focus on the role of faith-based organisations is also key in violence reduction or prevention. For example, the Johns Hopkins' Bloomberg School of Public Health is currently doing a similar thing with its Faith-Based Violence Prevention Initiatives <http://www.jhsph.edu/research/centers-and-institutes/center-for-prevention-of-youth-violence/faith_based_initiatives>

I wish you all the best the best in your endeavour! 

Feminist critical security scholarship in international relations might be a productive place to start.  You might try reading some of the work by Jane Parpart, Megan MacKenzie, and others, which looks at both the effect of armed conflict on women, and the role of women in armed conflict (and other aspects of gender analysis of conflict) in Africa. 

Hi Michelle,

I am not aware of the exact instruments, but would recommend checking the publications of this researcher as he is an expert in resilience:

Michael Ungar, Dalhousie University (he is director of the Resilience Research Centre and has done research on resilience across many cultures including Africa) 

Toula

Whatever method you chose, it will be your interpretation. Without a significant write-up on limitations, it'll be viewed with with scepticism by many academics (although you might make a nice graphic for USA Today). Peacebuilding initiatives are highly complex phenomenon and really warrant qualitative analysis, as was noted previously in another comment. Another reference on the complexity of the issue: James C. Scott, Seeing Like a State.

Generally the answer is "Yes", for several reasons.

1. Trust between and among conflicting sides takes time to revive and sustain.

2. The--a-- stronger side may still make effort to impose its own will.

3. Depending on the length of the conflict there may be generations infused with "wrong histories" and prejudices, making true reconciliation and peaceful coexistence a similarly several generations' long effort.

4. Sometimes a slower process is more natural and acceptable with stronger "buy-in" and is not necessarily deleterious.

It also provides a sense of legitimacy to the operations otherwise the West is accused of Imperialism. They still get hit with this anyway, but to a much lesser extent if boots aren't on the ground.

True totally agree. Your methodology is flawless but army coups in egypt are not really reassuring. In terms of Egypt, I think we should both wait to see the upcoming elections results. My point is that the problem in egypt goes well beyond mere points you've discussed that are purely based on levels of governance etc. The problem is more likely to be related with Islamists in the region and the rise of the brotherhood. Tunisia for instance faces the same problem. Turkey seems for me at least a bit less related to the issue of islamists and more related to your paper.