Zvi Griliches’s research while affiliated with Harvard University and other places

The measurement of the output of the medical care system is necessary to assess the productivity levels and growth of a country's economy and medical care system. Medical price indexes have uses other than those involving output and productivity measurement. In the United States, both within the health sector and more generally, contracts occasionally contain provisions that depend on growth of the medical Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI and the Producer Price Index (PPI) are also employed in updating fee schedules for certain administered pricing schemes and payments to some health plans. This chapter reviews the measurement issues underlying the construction of medical care price indexes. It describes procedures employed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in the construction of its medical CPIs and PPIs (including recent revisions and changes). It also discusses alternative notions of medical care output that involve the price of a treatment episode rather than the prices of fixed bundles of inputs. Finally, the chapter outlines salient features of a new price index for health expenditures.

We review in considerable detail the conceptual and measurement issues that underlie construction of medical care price indexes in the US, focusing in particular on the medical care consumer price indexes (MCPIs) and medical-related producer price indexes (MPPIs). We outline salient features of the medical care marketplace, including the impacts of insurance, moral hazard, principal-agent relationships, technological progress and organizational changes. Since observed data are unlikely to correspond with efficient outcomes, we discuss implications of the failure of transactions data in this market to reveal reliable marginal valuations, and the consequent need to augment traditional transactions data with information based on cost-effectiveness and outcomes studies.We describe procedures currently used by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics in constructing MCPIs and MPPIs, including recent revisions, and then consider alternative notions of medical care output pricing that involve the price or cost of an episode of treatment, rather than prices of fixed bundles of inputs. We outline features of a proposed new experimental price index — a medical care expenditure price index — that is more suitable for evaluation and analyses of medical care cost changes, than are the current MCPIs and MPPIs. We discuss the ways in which medical care transactions enter national economic accounts, including inter-industry flows and national health accounts, as well as aggregate economy implications of possible mismeasurement of prices in the medical sector. We conclude by suggesting future research and measurement issues that are most likely to be fruitful.

In this paper we explore the relationship between computers and productivity growth at the firm level. We apply standard productivity and growth accounting techniques to data from 600 large US firms over 1987-1994. While we find that computer make a positive and significant contribution to output growth in the short term (using 1 year differences), the implied returns to computers are two to five times greater when differences are taken over seven years instead of one year. Our results challenge the conclusions drawn from aggregate data on computers and productivity, but are consistent with case evidence that the combination of computers and organizational co-investments make a substantial contribution to growth. JEL Categories: O3 Technological Change; D24 Capital and Total Factor Productivity Computers and Productivity Growth Page 1 1.

A panel of price research experts convened to discuss research agenda that they believe should merit the highest priority over the next two decades.

We present a partial equilibrium model of endogenous firm growth with R&D investment and stochastic innovation as the engines of growth, drawing on the quality ladder models in the macro growth literature, and the literature on patent races and the discrete choice models of product differentiation. The model fits a number of empirical patterns well, including: (i) a skewed size distribution of firms with persistent differences in firm sizes, (ii) firm growth independent of firm size, as stated in the so-called Gibrat's law, and (iii) R&D investment proportional to sales.

© 2000 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog

A number of market failures have been associated with R&D investments and significant amounts of public money have been spent on programs to stimulate innovative activities. In this paper, we review some recent microeconometric studies evaluating effects of government-sponsored commercial R&D. We pay particular attention to the conceptual problems involved. Neither the firms receiving support, nor those not applying, constitute random samples. Furthermore, those not receiving support may be affected by the programs due to spillover effects which often are the main justification for R&D subsidies. Constructing a valid control group under these circumstances is challenging, and we relate our discussion to recent advances in econometric methods for evaluation studies based on non-experimental data. We also discuss some analytical questions, beyond these estimation problems, that need to be addressed in order to assess whether R&D support schemes can be justified. For instance, what are the implications of firms' R&D investments being complementary to each other, and to what extent are potential R&D spillovers internalized in the market?

A number of market failures have been associated with R&D investments and significant amounts of public money have been spent on programs to stimulate innovative activities. In this paper, we review some recent microeconometric studies evaluating effects of government-sponsored commercial R&D. We pay particular attention to the conceptual problems involved. Neither the firms receiving support, nor those not applying, constitute random samples. Furthermore, those not receiving support may be affected by the programs due to spillover effects which often are the main justification for R&D subsidies. Constructing a valid control group under these circumstances is challenging, and we relate our discussion to recent advances in econometric methods for evaluation studies based on non-experimental data. We also discuss some analytical questions, beyond these estimation problems, that need to be addressed in order to assess whether R&D support schemes can be justified. For instance, what are the implications of firms' R&D investments being complementary to each other, and to what extent are potential R&D spillovers internalized in the market?

After presenting major findings and recommendations, the CPI Commission reiterates the estimate of a 1.1 percentage point per annum upward bias. It rejects the contention that the BLS already makes substantial corrections for quality change; that quality improvements and new products accrue only to the rich; and that procedures to make more extensive quality adjustments, valuations of new products, and adjustments for commodity and outlet substitution are impractical. The bias in the CPI can be sharply reduced, as the authors detail in this paper. Coauthors are Ellen R. Dulberger, Robert J. Gordon, Zvi Griliches, and Dale W. Jorgenson.

We review in considerable detail the conceptual and measurement issues that underlie construction of medical care price indexes in the U.S., particularly the medical care consumer price indexes (MCPIs) and medical-related producer price indexes (MPPIs). We outline salient features of the medical care marketplace, including the impacts of insurance, moral hazard, principal-agent relationships, technological progress and organizational changes. Since observed data are unlikely to correspond with efficient outcomes, we discuss implications of the failure of transactions data in this market to reveal reliable marginal valuations, and the consequent need to augment traditional transactions data with information based on cost-effectiveness and outcomes studies. We describe procedures currently used by the BLS in constructing MCPIs and MPPIs, including recent revisions, and then consider alternative notions of medical care output pricing that involve the price or cost of an episode of treatment, rather than prices of fixed bundles of inputs. We outline features of a proposed new experimental price index -- a medical care expenditure price index -- that is more suitable for evaluation and analyses of medical care cost changes, than are the current MCPIs and MPPIs. We conclude by suggesting future research and measurement issues that are most likely to be fruitful.