Zsófia Derts’s research while affiliated with Budapest University of Technology and Economics and other places

Efficient solutions to flood and water logging problems are hardly achievable without flexibility in land use and management. This report considers how the use of economic policy instruments (EPIs) can improve the flexibility of land use and thereby contribute to more cost-effective flood protection and offer solutions to water logging problems. Two case studies have been conducted within the Tisza river basin of Hungary to explore if innovative EPIs can be applied in water management - with a vision to improve social welfare. The case study was prepared in the EPI Water research program (Evaluating Economic Policy Instruments for Sustainable Water Management in Europe - www.epi-water.eu

While characterized by numerous environmental risks directly or indirectly caused by anthropogenic interventions, the Tisza Valley has an important potential to get its natural capital enriched through landscape scale adaptive management. In this paper, the current and potential ecosystem services are identified for the deep floodplains of the Tisza Valley by means of hydrodynamic modeling results and a detailed land cover analysis. Meanwhile, the agricultural suitability and environmental sensitivity of the study areas are analyzed, and the results of this phase of the research will provide a background for the quantification of the natural capital of the study areas.

There are major unsolved water resources problems (water scarcity, excess water, floods, water budget imbalance) in Hungary, which are likely to worsen in the future due to the unfavourable trend of driving forces. The aim of the WateRisk project was to support scientific understanding and management of the mentioned issues. To do so, a novel scenario analysis method and an integrated hydrologic model were developed. The method includes three major stages: scenario development for water resources, modelling of hydrologic conditions and comparative economic scenario evaluation by quantification of water related profits (including ecosystem services), damages and risks. The method was tested on three Hungarian pilot areas, which are affected by typical water management problems. Altogether 22 scenarios were developed to analyze current and alternative land use-water governance practice with respect to present and predicted future climatic conditions. Scenarios represent different approaches based on either major engineering interventions or landscape-level adaptation. Detailed model simulations of complex hydrologic processes were carried out successfully. Derived results are summarized in the paper as aggregated hydrologic and economic indicators. These show that well-planned changes in the land use-water management system would provide overall hydrologic-economic improvement or at least minimise the negative effects of climate change.

Sajátos hidrológiai helyzetéből adódóan Magyarország egyszerre néz szembe a víztöbblet és vízhiány okozta kockázatokkal, amelyeket közvetlen és közvetett emberi hatások mellett tovább súlyosbít az éghajlatváltozás. A kockázatok enyhítése csak tájszintű tervezés segítségével lehetséges, amelyet nagyban megkönnyítene az egyes tájhasználati szcenáriók természeti tőkéjének összehasonlítása. Egy tavaly (2011-ben) lezárult hazai K+F projekt (WateRisk) egyik célkitűzése éppen ez volt. A három éves projekt során kifejlesztett döntéstámogató rendszer egyik kulcseleme a környezet-gazdaságtani almodul. Ez többek között lehetővé teszi, hogy megbecsüljük a mezőgazdasági termelés mint ellátó szolgáltatás hasznát. Jelen cikk célja utóbbi számítás elvi alapjainak bemutatása.

Due to its specific hydrologic/hydro-geologic situation, Hungary is risked by extremities in water resources aggravated by direct and indirect anthropogenic effects and climate change. The mitigation of these risks could only be feasible by means of landscape scale planning. Latter would be advanced by comparing the natural capital of the possible land use scenarios. A fundamental aim of an R&D project (WateRisk) finished in 2011 was to elaborate a tool for these kinds of studies. A complex decision support system (DSS) was developed during the three year long project. A key element of the DSS is the environmental-economic module, which is able to estimate the profit of agricultural crops. The main topic of this article is the presentation of this calculation methodology.