Zhou Li’s research while affiliated with Sichuan International Studies University and other places

This study examines how commodity financialization—marked by surging capital inflows and new financial instruments like ETFs—affects commodity pricing dynamics by analyzing inventory-linked convenience yield and investor behavior. Based on the extended theory of storage, using futures market data from 1994 to 2021, this paper examines the efficiency of the factor models in capturing financialization in commodity markets. Furthermore, Fama-MacBeth regression, structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, and several statistical indicators are adopted to illustrate the roles of heterogeneous investor behavior in explaining and forecasting commodity pricing. The empirical results can be summarized as follows. Firstly, a financialization-inclusive two-factor model outperforms a single-factor model in aligning with actual commodity futures prices and their term structure. Secondly, non-commercial traders dominate trend-following trades, while commercial traders dominate counter-trend trades. Thirdly, heterogeneous investors’ positions have both short- and long-term predictive effects on commodity prices. In summary, this paper demonstrates the importance of investor behavior for commodity pricing and provides policymakers with regulatory insights.

Rational asset allocation is central to household wealth accumulation. This paper employs data derived from the 2019 China Household Finance Survey to methodically examine the influence of property tax expectations on the asset allocation decisions of households. This study finds that the expectation of property tax positively influences both the probability of holding risky financial assets and their proportion of household assets. The percentage of housing assets constitutes a substantial negative moderating factor affecting the relationship between property tax expectation and household investments in risky financial assets. The positive effect of property tax expectations is more significant in eastern China. A definite expectation of property tax causes a precautionary saving effect among households. This study highlights that forming reasonable expectations about property taxes can help households adjust their investment portfolios in advance, diversify their asset allocation, and mitigate the impact of changes in property tax policies.