Zhengxun Tan's research while affiliated with Hunan Normal University and other places
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Publications (8)
There is an anomaly of “the more regulation, the more rise” in China’s housing market before 2017. However, the anomaly seems to have reversed since 2017. To analyze the mechanism that leads to this transition, we construct a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, including the public expectations about monetary policies. Before 2017,...
Cryptocurrency has become an increasingly important investment vehicle, thus the long-run relationship between risk and return of cryptocurrency is vital for both investors and policy-makers. We apply the Fractionally Cointegrated Vector Autoregression (FCVAR) model and investigate the risk-return relationship. This has not been studied previously,...
Detecting stock market turning points is a task with great significance and challenges. To achieve this purpose, we decompose the trend and cycle components of stock prices by the autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average model, which can simulate fractional difference stationary processes. What is more, we use wavelet leaders method to...
The paper proposes a novel hybrid method that extends previous work incorporating the fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive and the permanent-transitory decomposition model. Using the hybrid method, we investigate whether the rapid rise in China’s housing prices is a trend or cyclical fluctuation as well as whether there exists a housing...
Given that the United States is an engine of global stock market while China is the largest emerging market with a cornucopia of anomalies in particular, it is vital to investigate the risk-return relationship in the two markets. This paper brings new insights not only into risk-return tradeoff, but also to the leverage effect, with the application...
Purpose
This study aims to examine the long memory as well as the effect of structural breaks in the US and the Chinese stock markets. More importantly, it further explores possible causes of the differences in long memory between these two stock markets.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors employ various methods to estimate the memory paramet...
This study suggests a structural modification of the basic ARFIMA-GARCH model by allowing for time-varying baseline mean and, especially, symmetric threshold GARCH. By applying it to the inflation of G7 countries, we find that past excessive positive or negative shocks have positive impacts on future volatility and GARCH persistence. Compared with...
Citations
... That is, the asset-liability ratio shall not exceed 70%, the net gearing ratio (liability to owner's equity) should not exceed 100%, and the cash to short term debt ratio shall be greater than one after excluding the prepaid receivables. Tan et al. (2022) mentioned the anomaly of " the more regulation, the more rise", which is a common sense agreed by China's domestic housing market researchers before 2017, these strictest policy issued in 2018 and 2020 show the central government and banks' determinations to regulate the housing market and completely changed the public the unlimited housing increasing expectations. ...
... Most studies of housing price determination confirmed the explaining power of GDP and money supply as the most essential determinants. For example, Tan et al. [5] found that the fundamental value of housing prices is determined by macroeconomic factors of GDP and money supply. Li and Chiang [6] discovered an equilibrium relationship between housing prices and GDP. ...
... However, diferent markets show various forms in different periods, especially in the stock market, where there are many stylized facts [2][3][4], such as volatility clustering [5][6][7], fat tails [8][9][10], and long memories [11,12], which are difcult to explain by modern fnancial theory. Terefore, modern fnancial theory based on efcient market hypothesis and rational expectation theory is not accurate enough in the risk management. ...
... Such dependence behavior would imply high predictability of these returns which can be used to generate substantial profits. In the same vein, Tan et al. (2020) pointed out that the existence of long memory in the return series implies potential predictability to returns, which contradicts the EMH. ...
... Cryptocurrencies have recently attracted significant attention from several scientists due to enthusiasm and innovations in economic life. In the studies that produced the early literature of cryptocurrencies, researchers generally conducted research to determine frequently pondered characteristics of cryptocurrencies, such as user's latent intention-asset or a currency node [11][12][13], fundamental price and speculative bubble [14][15][16], investor attention and behavioral determinants [17][18][19][20], portfolio management [21][22][23][24], volatility spillover and value forecasting [25][26][27], liquidity [28,29], risk management and hedging opportunities [30,31], cryptomarket efficiency [32,33], price dependence and movements [34,35], crash risk and bubble form [36][37][38][39], connectedness with traditional assets/currencies or markets [40][41][42][43][44], and energy consumption [45][46][47]. ...
... It has been two years since the whole globe cannot find the exit route from the prevailing position; the only remedy recognized is vaccines. During any disease outbreak, the population faces mental stress, social disorder, emotional distress and economic losses (Tan et al., 2021). India is among those nations along with the world which is adversely affected by the pandemic.The situation lockdown has been imposed all over the country, leading to the consequences of poverty and other adverse effects on the economy and the nation's growth (Favale et al., 2020;Nundy et al., 2021).The whole economy was under the comfort of a new recession and economic crisis. ...
... In particular, the time-varying ARFIMA-GARCH process models long memory, conditional and unconditional heteroscedasticity simultaneously for d > 0. Some recent development on time-varying ARFIMA-GARCH processes includes Belkhouja and Mootamri (2016), Tan and Liu (2021). When c(t), α(t) and β(t) do not depend on t, the model (3.3) coincides with Baillie et al. (1996)'s ARFIMA(p,d,q)-GARCH(1,1) model. ...