Zeke Hausfather's research while affiliated with Berkeley Earth and other places
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Publications (38)
In every IPCC Assessment cycle, a multitude of scenarios are assessed, with different scope and emphasis throughout the various Working Group and Special Reports and their respective chapters. Within the reports, the ambition is to integrate knowledge on possible climate futures across the Working Groups and scientific research domains based on a s...
Tipping elements are components of the Earth system which may respond nonlinearly to anthropogenic climate change by transitioning toward substantially different long‐term states upon passing key thresholds or “tipping points.” In some cases, such changes could produce additional greenhouse gas emissions or radiative forcing that could compound glo...
The sixth and latest IPCC assessment weights climate models according to how well they reproduce other evidence. Now the rest of the community should do the same. The sixth and latest IPCC assessment weights climate models according to how well they reproduce other evidence. Now the rest of the community should do the same.
The increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere create an increase in Earth’s thermal energy, which is mainly stored in the ocean. Quantification of the rate of increase in ocean heat content (OHC) is vital for understanding the current and future climate of Earth. Linear trend lines have been frequently used to quantify long-ter...
Analysis of climate pledges by nations at the COP26 meeting indicates that such commitments could ensure that global warming does not exceed 2 ºC before 2100 — but only if backed up by short-term policies. Pledged climate policies predicted to cap global temperature increase.
On 22 September 2020, within the backdrop of the COVID-19 global pandemic, China announced its climate goal for peak carbon emissions before 2030 and to reach carbon neutrality before 2060. This carbon-neutral goal is generally considered to cover all anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The planning effort is now in full swing in China, but the pathway...
Achieving global climate and energy goals will require prodigious increases in non-emitting electricity generation, raising concerns about the scale of materials needed and associated environmental impacts. Here, we estimate power sector demand for materials and related carbon dioxide-equivalent (CO2eq) emissions from 2020-2050 across different cli...
A global land–ocean temperature record has been created
by combining the Berkeley Earth monthly land temperature field with
spatially kriged version of the HadSST3 dataset. This combined product spans
the period from 1850 to present and covers the majority of the Earth's
surface: approximately 57 % in 1850, 75 % in 1880, 95 % in 1960, and
99.9 % by...
We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2, characterized by an effective sensitivity S . This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of ev...
A global land/ocean temperature record has been created by combining the Berkeley Earth monthly land temperature field with spatially-kriged version of the HadSST3 dataset. This combined product spans the period from 1850 to present and covers the majority of the Earth's surface: approximately 57 % in 1850, 75 % in 1880, 95 % in 1960, and 99.9 % by...
Abstract. Increasing attention is focusing upon climate tipping elements – large-scale earth systems anticipated to respond through positive feedbacks to anthropogenic climate change by shifting towards new long-term states. In some but not all cases, such changes could produce additional greenhouse gas emissions or radiative forcing that could com...
Stop using the worst-case scenario for climate warming as the most likely outcome — more-realistic baselines make for better policy. Stop using the worst-case scenario for climate warming as the most likely outcome — more-realistic baselines make for better policy. A rainbow forms behind giant windmills near rain-soaked Interstate 10, Palm Springs,...
Plain Language Summary
Climate models provide an important way to understand future changes in the Earth's climate. In this paper we undertake a thorough evaluation of the performance of various climate models published between the early 1970s and the late 2000s. Specifically, we look at how well models project global warming in the years after the...
The Paris Agreement introduced an ambitious goal of limiting warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Here we combine a review of modelled pathways and literature on mitigation strategies, and develop a land-sector roadmap of priority measures and regions that can help to achieve the 1.5 °C temperature goal. Transforming the land sector and d...
An analysis of the record of sea surface temperature reveals that some climate variations that are thought to have occurred in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific oceans are an artefact of changes in measurement approaches. Adjustments to measurements of sea surface temperature.
The early twentieth-century warming (EW; 1910–45) and the mid-twentieth-century cooling (MC; 1950–80) have been linked to both internal variability of the climate system and changes in external radiative forcing. The degree to which either of the two factors contributed to EW and MC, or both, is still debated. Using a two-box impulse response model...
Observational records of ocean heat content show that ocean warming is accelerating
Removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) combined with emission reduction is necessary to keep climate warming below the internationally agreed upon 2°C target. Soil organic carbon sequestration through agricultural management has been proposed as a means to lower atmospheric CO2 concentration, but the magnitude needed to meaningfully lower temp...
There is overwhelming evidence that the climate system has warmed since the instigation of instrumental meteorological observations. The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that the evidence for warming was unequivocal. However, owing to imperfect measurements and ubiquitous changes in measurement netw...
Sea surface temperatures form a vital part of global mean surface temperature records. Historical observation methods have changed substantially over time from buckets to engine‐room intake sensors, hull sensors and drifting buoys, rendering their use for climatological studies problematic. There are substantial uncertainties in the relative biases...
They are useless in evaluating whether research results are correct
Sea surface temperature (SST) records are subject to potential biases due to changing instrumentation and measurement practices. Significant differences exist between commonly used composite SST reconstructions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Extended Reconstruction Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST), the Hadley Centre SST d...
Changes in diurnal temperature range (DTR) over global land areas are compared from a broad range of independent data sets. All data sets agree that global-mean DTR has decreased significantly since 1950, with most of that decrease occurring over 1960–1980. The since-1979 trends are not significant, with inter-data set disagreement even over the si...
Numerous inhomogeneities including station moves, instrument changes, and time of observation changes in the U.S. Historical Climatological Network (USHCN) complicate the assessment of long-term temperature trends. Detection and correction of inhomogeneities in raw temperature records have been undertaken by NOAA and other groups using automated pa...
Natural gas has significant potential carbon benefits over coal when used for electricity generation, but these benefits can be offset by emissions of fugitive methane or delays in the adoption of near-zero carbon technologies. We analyze the time-evolution of radiative forcing from both natural gas and coal-based electricity generation by calculat...
Natural gas has been suggested as a “bridge fuel” in the transition from coal to a near-zero emission energy system. However, the expansion of natural gas risks a delay in the introduction of near-zero emission energy systems, possibly offsetting the potential climate benefits of a gas-for-coal substitution. We use a schematic climate model to esti...
The level of agreement between climate model simulations and observed surface temperature change is a topic of scientific and policy concern. While the Earth system continues to accumulate energy due to anthropogenic and other radiative forcings, estimates of recent surface temperature evolution fall at the lower end of climate model projections. G...
Monckton of Brenchley et al. (Sci Bull 60:122-135, 2015) (hereafter called M15) use a simple energy balance model to estimate climate response. They select parameters for this model based on semantic arguments, leading to different results from those obtained in physics-based studies. M15 did not validate their model against observations, but inste...
The International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) is striving towards
substantively improving our ability to robustly understand historical land
surface air temperature change at all scales. A key recently completed first
step has been collating all available records into a comprehensive open
access, traceable and version-controlled databank....
The International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) is striving towards substantively
improving our ability to robustly understand historical land surface air temperature change at all
scales. A key recently completed first step has been collating all available records into
a comprehensive open access, traceable and version-controlled databank....
An assessment quantifying the impact of urbanization on temperature
trends from the U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) is
described. Stations were first classified as urban and nonurban (rural)
using four different proxy measures of urbanity. Trends from the two
station types were then compared using a pairing method that controls
for diff...
Metals are used in a variety of ways, many of which lead to dissipative releases to the environment. Such releases are relevant from both a resource use and an environmental impact perspective. We present a historical analysis of copper dissipative releases in the United States from 1975 to 2000. We situate all dissipative releases in copper's life...
Rapid urbanization over the past half century has contributed to a
warming bias in some Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN)
temperature records. The extent to which this urban warming bias
contributes to global temperature trends remains largely unquantified
both in raw and homogenized datasets, and no clear consensus exists on
the need...
Citations
... The collapse of these tipping elements would have severe impacts on the climate from local to regional scales, and their research is thus of high priority. However, both the probability of tipping and the degree of warming under which it might happen remain highly uncertain for these tipping elements (IPCC, 2022;Wang et al., 2023). This is in part due to the lack of such abrupt transitions in the recent observational records, and in part due to the difficulty of modelling such non-linear systems using comprehensive coupled climate models. ...
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... The cost of replacing fossil energy with clean energy, presently, is astronomical due to the majority of the scenario involves a huge share of renewable energy, especially wind and solar. Although they might be cheap to install, the material demand is huge (Wang et al., 2023), the grid-level costs are exorbitant (OECD NEA, 2018), and the storage/backup issue has not resolved. This hinders a rapid installation of renewable energy. ...
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... We use surface air temperature data from ERA5 (Hersbach et al., 2020) and GISTEMP (Lenssen et al., 2019). The CMIP6 ECS values are from Hausfather et al. (2022), and the annual global mean SAT from the CMIP6 models were downloaded from KNMI ClimExp (Trouet & Oldenborgh, 2013). ...
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... The main cause of global warming is the emission of greenhouse gases (Kweku et al., 2018). According to an analysis of climate commitments made by countries at COP26, short-term policy support is essential to ensure that global warming does not exceed 2 • C by 2100 (Hausfather and Moore, 2022). However, the possibility of controlling global warming within 2 • C is no more than 50%. ...
... Such methods rely on assumptions, for example that the trend is linear or data points are stationary and independent. However, ocean temperature time series are unlikely to have trends that can be approximated well using a straight line over decades (Seidel and Lanzante, 2004;Wu et al., 2007;Cheng et al., 2022) and are often non-stationary (Barbosa, 2011). Recently, Cheng et al. (2022) explored nonlinear methods for quantifying the rate of global ocean heat content change. ...
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... Carbon research is a topic of global concern. Studies have been conducted on the carbon footprint (El Ibrahimi et al. 2022;Kannangara et al. 2022;Yang et al. 2022b), carbon transfer pathways , carbon trading (Tang et al. 2021;Yadav et al. 2022;Zhu and Ma 2022;Zhu et al. 2019), carbon storage (Chang et al. 2022;Haq et al. 2022;Jung et al. 2021;Xiang et al. 2022;Yang et al. 2017;Zhang et al. 2023), carbon efficiency (Wang et al. 2023a(Wang et al. , 2023bZhang et al. 2020;Zhang and Liu 2022), carbon compensation (Göswein et al. 2021;Peng et al. 2022;Wang et al. 2020), carbon peaking and carbon neutrality (Alabi et al. 2022;Chen et al. 2022;Duan et al. 2022;Zeng et al. 2022), and many other topics. The most common research methods include spatial autocorrelation analysis (Wang and Zhang 2021;Wang et al. 2022a;Zhou et al. 2023), standard deviation ellipses (SDE) Zhang et al. 2022a;Zhou et al. 2023), kernel density estimation (Li et al. 2022c), and cold and hot spot analyses . ...
... My critiques (highlighted in the blue comments) are better detailed in the text. (c) Screenshot of the Berkeley Earth's global surface temperature record with its estimated (95% confidence) errors (Rohde & Hausfather, 2020, 2023 ...
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... These two scenarios differ in terms of global emissions and are based on different policy assumptions. RCP8.5 was initially defined as a business-as-usual scenario, although its plausibility as such has been called into question [44]. RCP2.6, on the other hand, was defined as a very stringent scenario in terms of curbing carbon emissions. ...
... We find that the PRISM4 and PlioVAR-U K 37 data sets both generate reconstructions towards the high end of previous 10 estimates, but not inconsistent with them (e.g. the value of 3 ± 1 • C assessed by Sherwood et al., 2020). As the table shows, there are differences between the global fields generated from PRISM4 and PlioVAR-U K 37 data even though the data points in these two sets take broadly similar values where they exist in both sets of data. ...
... Page 4 of 28 AUTHOR SUBMITTED MANUSCRIPT -ERCL-100172. R1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 A c c e p t e d M a n u s c r i p t 5 Observational Datasets (Historical Reference): A set of five gridded observational global mean surface air temperature datasets were used for the analysis of mean surface temperature, namely, NOAA Global Temperature Analysis v5 (NOAA at 5 degree x 5 degree resolution, Zhang et al., 2019), Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis V4 (GISTEMP at 2 degree x 2 degree resolution, Lenssen et al., 2019), Met Office Hadley Centre's and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit (HadCRUT5 at 5 degree x 5 degree, Morice et al., 2021), Kadow (Kadow at 5 degree x 5 degree, Kadow et al., 2020) and Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST at 1 degree x 1 degree, Rohde and Hausfather, 2020). These datasets represent a combination of surface air-temperature fields over land and sea-surface temperature fields over the ocean. ...
