Yidi Qiao’s research while affiliated with China University of Mining and Technology and other places

As the most developed economic zone in northern China, the establishment of regional carbon emission trading (CET) market in the Bohai Rim Economic Circle (BREC) is vital to achieve the Chinese government’s carbon emissions reduction target. This study estimates the carbon emissions in the BREC from 2005 to 2017. To evaluate the impact of energy consumption structure on carbon emission performance in this region, a directional distance function is constructed, and two scenarios are assumed. Then, a two-stage allocation model is established to allocate the carbon emission quotas in 2030. The results indicate the following: (1) Carbon emission intensity tends to decrease and there are large differences among provinces. (2) Energy consumption structure has a great effect on carbon emission performance, ignoring energy consumption structure will underestimate carbon emission performance. (3) Total accumulated carbon emission targets are 85.20 billion tons, 82.36 billion tons and 79.62 billion tons at the high, medium and low economic growth rates. These results provide a reference for the regional carbon emission quotas allocation and for accelerating the establishment of a national CET market.