Xiao Xu’s research while affiliated with University of Groningen and other places

Uncertainty in fertility intentions is a major obstacle to understanding contemporary trends in fertility decision-making and its outcomes. Quantifying this uncertainty by structural factors such as income, ethnicity, and housing conditions is recognized as insufficient. A recently proposed framework on subjective narratives has opened up a new way to gauge factors behind fertility decision-making and uncertainty. Through surveys, such narratives can be elicited with open-ended questions (OEQs). However, analyzing answers to OEQs typically involves extensive human coding, imposing constraints on sample size. Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques assist researchers in grasping aspects of the underlying reasoning behind responses with much less human effort. In this study, using automatic neural topic modeling methods, we identify and interpret topics and themes underlying the narratives on fertility intention uncertainty of women in the Netherlands. We used Contextualized Topic Models (CTMs), a neural topic model using pre-trained representations of Dutch language, to conduct our analyses. Our results show that nine topics dominate the narratives about fertility planning, with age and health-related issues as the most prominent ones. In addition, we found that uncertainty in fertility intentions is not homogeneous, as women who feel uncertain due to real-life constraints and those who have no fertility plans at all put their stress on vastly different narratives.

People's networks are considered key in explaining fertility outcomes—whether people want and have children. Existing research on social influences on fertility is limited because data often come from small networks or highly selective samples, only few network variables are considered, and the strength of network effects is not properly assessed. We use data from a representative sample of Dutch women reporting on over 18 000 relationships. A data-driven approach including many network characteristics accounted for 0 to 40% of the out-of-sample variation in different outcomes related to fertility preferences. Individual characteristics were more important for all outcomes than network variables. Network composition was also important, particularly those people in the network desiring children or those choosing to be childfree. Structural network characteristics, which feature prominently in social influence theories and are based on the relations between people in the networks, hardly mattered. We discuss to what extent our results provide support for different mechanisms of social influence, and the advantages and disadvantages of our data-driven approach in comparison to traditional approaches.