Wolfgang Cramer's research while affiliated with Aix-Marseille Université and other places

Publications (216)

Preprint
Full-text available
The potential areal extent of agricultural crops is sensitive to climate change and its underlying drivers. To distinguish between the drivers of past variations in the Mediterranean viticulture extension since Early Antiquity and improve projections for the future, we propose an original attribution method based on an emulation of coupled climate...
Article
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The Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS) was established in 2011, and is now one of the major international social-ecological systems (SES) research networks. During this time, SES research has undergone a phase of rapid growth and has grown into an influential branch of sustainability science. In this Perspective, we argue that SES res...
Preprint
The potential areal extent of agricultural crops is sensitive to climate change and its underlying drivers. To distinguish between the drivers of past variations in the Mediterranean viticulture since Early Antiquity and improve projections for the future, we propose an original attribution method based on an emulation of coupled climate and ecosys...
Book
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This volume examines the multidimensional relationship between climate change and security across Mediterranean Basin states and societies, underscoring the key social, political and economic challenges of the present climate emergency and outlining possible cooperative avenues to mitigate its most adverse effects. Part of a broader research and en...
Article
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Potential for, and limits to, adaptation to environmental changes are critical for resilience and risk mitigation. The Mediterranean basin is a mosaic of biodiversity-rich ecosystems long affected by human influence, whose resilience is now questioned by climate change. After reviewing the different components of biological adaptation, we present t...
Article
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Worldwide, Mediterranean cropping systems face the complex challenge of producing enough high-quality food while preserving the quantity and quality of scarce water for people and agriculture in the context of climate change. While good management of nitrogen (N) is paramount to achieving this objective, the efficient strategies developed for tempe...
Article
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Global vegetation and land‐surface models embody interdisciplinary scientific understanding of the behaviour of plants and ecosystems, and are indispensable to project the impacts of environmental change on vegetation and the interactions between vegetation and climate. However, systematic errors and persistently large differences among carbon and...
Article
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The different components of the Mediterranean Basin (land, coast, and sea) are undergoing significant changes due to multiple anthropogenic pressures, including climate change, pollution and other factors. The 1st Mediterranean Assessment Report (MAR1), produced by the Mediterranean Experts on Climate and environmental Change (MedECC) and based on...
Book
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Virtually all sub-regions of the Mediterranean Basin, on land and in the sea, are impacted by recent anthropogenic changes in the environment. The main drivers of change include climate (temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation, extreme events, sea-level rise, sea water temperature, salinity and acidification), population increase, pollu...
Book
Full-text available
Virtually all sub-regions of the Mediterranean Basin, on land and in the sea, are impacted by recent anthropogenic changes in the environment. The main drivers of change include climate (temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation, extreme events, sea-level rise, sea water temperature, salinity and acidification), population increase, pollu...
Chapter
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Climate change is exacerbating existing environmental fragilities and degradations in the Mediterranean basin. The region is considered a hotspot for climate change due in particular to more rapid warming in both the air and the sea than the global average and by changes in water regimes in a region where water scarcity is already a reality. CO2-in...
Article
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Scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES) are key for decision-makers to understand the consequences of future environmental change on BES. Though a major driver of terrestrial biodiversity loss, land use and land cover changes (LUCC) have been largely overlooked in previous BES assessments. But ecologists lack practical guidance for t...
Article
Plants and vegetation play a critical—but largely unpredictable—role in global environmental changes due to the multitude of contributing processes at widely different spatial and temporal scales. In this Perspective, we explore approaches to master this complexity and improve our ability to predict vegetation dynamics by explicitly taking account...
Article
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In the Mediterranean region, the long-term provision of agro-ecosystem services is threatened by accelerating climate change, unsustainable farming practices and other pressures. Alternative management practices such as conservation agriculture could be expected to ensure sustainability of ecosystem services from Mediterranean agro-ecosystems. Cons...
Article
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Land abandonment and the loss of traditional farming practices are thought to control land cover dynamics, and hence the ecosystem service supply in traditionally managed mountain landscapes. We evaluate the impact of land cover changes in Cantabrian Mountains (NW Spain), over 1990–2012, on the potential supply capacity of ecosystem services (regul...
Article
Recent accelerated climate change has exacerbated existing environmental problems in the Mediterranean Basin that are caused by the combination of changes in land use, increasing pollution and declining biodiversity. For five broad and interconnected impact domains (water, ecosystems, food, health and security), current change and future scenarios...
Presentation
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The Mediterranean basin is a region of high biodiversity, marine and terrestrial, with important endemism. This diversity has faced long-lasting, strong and increasing human demographic pressure. The relatively more recent effects of climate change are well visible in the Mediterranean basin, with for example, heat wave and summer-drought related m...
Article
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The Mediterranean region faces significant challenges to supply its growing population with food and living space. The region's potential to do so in the future is even more uncertain in the light of global change effects. Climate change will impact water availability in the region, which is already limited and often used at un-sustainable rates. T...
Article
Urbanization is an important driver of changes in land cover in the Mediterranean Basin and it is likely to impact the supply and demand of ecosystem services (ES). The most significant land cover changes occur in the periurban zone, but little is known about how these changes affect the ES supply. For eight European and four North African cities,...
Article
While high resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially-explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision making and may be the cause of their failure...
Article
Paper available in HAL archive for free: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01681621 Global sustainability policies, such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) or the Aichi Targets, aim to ensure sustainable development, including improved human well-being and the conservation of nature. Although not yet explicitly used to evaluate the pro...
Article
A major challenge of current ecological research is to determine the responses of plant and animal communities and ecosystem processes to future environmental conditions. Ecosystems respond to climate change in complex ways, and the outcome may significantly depend on biodiversity. We studied the relative effects of enhanced drought and of plant-sp...
Article
The mapping of ecosystem service supply has become quite common in ecosystem service assessment practice for terrestrial ecosystems, but land cover remains the most common indicator for ecosystems ability to deliver ecosystem services. For marine ecosystems, practice is even less advanced, with a clear deficit in spatially-explicit assessments of e...
Article
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Bioclimatic indices for use in studies of ecosystem function, species distribution, and vegetation dynamics under changing climate scenarios depend on estimates of surface fluxes and other quantities, such as radiation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture, for which direct observations are sparse. These quantities can be derived indirectly from me...
Article
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Fluxes of organic and inorganic carbon within the Amazon basin are considerably controlled by annual flooding, which triggers the export of terrigenous organic material to the river and ultimately to the Atlantic Ocean. The amount of carbon imported to the river and the further conversion, transport and export of it depend on temperature, atmospher...
Chapter
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Ecosystem services are increasingly incorporated into explicit policy targets and can be an effective tool for informing decisions about the use and management of the planet's resources, especially when trade-offs and synergies need to be taken into account. The challenge is to find meaningful and robust indicators to quantify ecosystem services, m...
Article
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris Agreement of December 2015 aims to maintain the global average warming well below 2°C above the preindustrial level. In the Mediterranean basin, recent pollen-based reconstructions of climate and ecosystem variability over the past 10,000 years provide insights regarding the implicatio...
Article
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The Paris Climate Agreement is an important step for international climate policy, but the compensation for negative effects of climate change based on clear assignment of responsibilities remains highly debated. From both a policy and a science perspective, it is unclear how responsibilities should be defined and on what evidence base. We explore...
Article
Full-text available
Bioclimatic indices for use in studies of ecosystem function, species distribution, and vegetation dynamics under changing climate scenarios depend on estimates of surface fluxes and other quantities, such as radiation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture, for which direct observations are sparse. These quantities can be derived indirectly from me...
Article
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Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer t...
Article
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Irrigation in the Mediterranean is of vital importance for food security, employment and economic development. This study systematically assesses how climate change and increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations may affect irrigation requirements in the Mediterranean region by 2080-2090. Future demographic change and technological improvements in...
Data
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Embedded Figure Legend: How above- and belowground multitrophic interactions may translate into ecosystem services. Most functional guilds (herbivores, omnivores, carnivores) of the detrital soil food web (brown pathway) are mirroring those of the aboveground food web (green pathway) in this conceptual graph. Their close synergy is shown by support...
Article
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The study of ecological services is fast becoming a cornerstone of mainstream ecology, largely because they provide a useful means of linking functioning to societal benefits in complex systems by connecting different organizational levels. In order to identify the main challenges facing current and future ecosystem service research, we analysed th...
Article
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In the Mediterranean region, climate and land use change are expected to impact on natural and agricultural ecosystems by warming, reduced rainfall, direct degradation of ecosystems and biodiversity loss. Human population growth and socioeconomic changes, notably on the Eastern and Southern shores, will require increases in food production and put...
Book
The study of ecological services (ESs) is fast becoming a cornerstone of mainstream ecology, largely because they provide a useful means of linking functioning to societal benefits in complex systems by connecting different organizational levels. In order to identify the main challenges facing current and future ES research, we analyzed the effects...
Article
Full-text available
Carbon fluxes in the Amazon Basin are considerably influenced by annual flooding during which terrigenous organic material is imported to the river. This regular interaction affects carbon pools within the riverine system, terrestrial carbon, and carbon exported to the ocean and released to the atmosphere. The processes of generation, conversion, a...
Article
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Ecosystem services research needs to become more transdisciplinary.•ecoSERVICES will advance co-designed, transdisciplinary ecosystem service research. Ecosystem services have become a mainstream concept for the expression of values assigned by people to various functions of ecosystems. Even though the introduction of the concept has initiated a va...
Article
35 Ecosystem services have become a mainstream concept for the expression of values assigned by people to various functions of ecosystems. Even though the introduction of the concept has initiated a vast amount of research, progress in using this knowledge for sustainable resource use remains insufficient. We see a need to broaden the scope of rese...
Article
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Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition, and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and...
Article
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The scarcity of robust scientific evidence supporting the attribution of observed impacts to climate change in some vulnerable regions does not indicate that no such impacts have occurred.
Article
Assessing past impacts of observed climate change on natural, human and managed systems requires detailed knowledge about the effects of both climatic and other drivers of change, and their respective interaction. Resulting requirements with regard to system understanding and long-term observational data can be prohibitive for quantitative detectio...
Chapter
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Human interference with the climate system is occurring. [WGI AR5 2.2, 6.3, 10.3-6, 10.9] Climate change poses risks for human and natural systems (Figure TS.1). The assessment of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (WGII AR5) evaluates how patterns of risks and potential...
Article
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Biodiversity is threatened on a global scale and the losses are ongoing. In order to stop further losses and maintain important ecosystem services, programmes have been put into place to reduce and ideally halt these processes. A whole suite of different approaches is needed to meet these goals. One major scientific contribution is to collate, inte...
Article
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Numerous studies have concluded that deforestation of the high latitudes result in a global cooling. This is mainly because of the increased albedo of deforested land which dominates over other biogeophysical and biogeochemical mechanisms in the energy balance. This dominance however may be due to an underestimation of the biogeochemical response,...
Article
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Anthropogenic climate change has triggered impacts on natural and human systems world-wide, yet the formal scientific method of detection and attribution has been only insufficiently described. Detection and attribution of impacts of climate change is a fundamentally cross-disciplinary issue, involving concepts, terms, and standards spanning the va...
Article
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In our globalizing world, the geographical locations of food production and consumption are becoming increasingly disconnected, which increases reliance on external resources and their trade. We quantified to what extent water and land constraints limit countries' capacities, at present and by 2050, to produce on their own territory the crop produc...
Article
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We present a simple method of probabilistic risk analysis for ecosystems. The only requirements are time series—modelled or measured—of environment and ecosystem variables. Risk is defined as the product of hazard probability and ecosystem vulnerability. Vulnerability is the expected difference in ecosystem performance between years with and withou...
Article
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This chapter discusses how more effective multilateral biodiversity agreements might be built post-2010, including creating targets that are likely to have more impact, and enhancing the links between science and policy. The chapter talks about three sets of biodiversity targets. First one is ‘red’ targets to address changes in biodiversity that ha...
Article
Climate change science is increasingly concerned with methods for managing and integrating sources of uncertainty from emission storylines, climate model projections, and ecosystem model parameterizations. In tropical ecosystems, regional climate projections and modeled ecosystem responses vary greatly, leading to a significant source of uncertaint...