William L. McGill’s research while affiliated with University of Maryland, College Park and other places

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Publications (21)


Critical Asset and Portfolio Risk Analysis: An All‐Hazards Framework
  • Article

September 2007

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458 Reads

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86 Citations

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William L McGill

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This article develops a quantitative all-hazards framework for critical asset and portfolio risk analysis (CAPRA) that considers both natural and human-caused hazards. Following a discussion on the nature of security threats, the need for actionable risk assessments, and the distinction between asset and portfolio-level analysis, a general formula for all-hazards risk analysis is obtained that resembles the traditional model based on the notional product of consequence, vulnerability, and threat, though with clear meanings assigned to each parameter. Furthermore, a simple portfolio consequence model is presented that yields first-order estimates of interdependency effects following a successful attack on an asset. Moreover, depending on the needs of the decisions being made and available analytical resources, values for the parameters in this model can be obtained at a high level or through detailed systems analysis. Several illustrative examples of the CAPRA methodology are provided.


Citations (18)


... The other PdM physics-based models include the prognostic model of physics-offailure Tinga & Loendersloot, 2019), the RUL model of ship hull structure profile (Ayyub et al., 2022), and ship hull tanker profile . These models were tested and evaluated by comparing them with their corresponding simulations. ...

Reference:

A REVIEW OF PREDICTIVE MAINTENANCE APPROACHES FOR CORROSION DETECTION AND MAINTENANCE OF MARINE STRUCTURES
End-of-Life Corrosion Estimation and Profile of Ship Hull Structure: Non-Parametric Statistical Analysis of Medium Endurance Cutters
  • Citing Article
  • April 2022

ASCE-ASME J Risk and Uncert in Engrg Sys Part B Mech Engrg

... The first several result pages were reviewed and many of them were deemed out of scope for this project due to considering only one risk, such as [13][14][15][16], or based on proving a theory, such as [17]. Several related papers were found, such as [18][19][20][21], that provided insightful information. Kappes et al. [18] provides insight into the challenges of analyzing multi-hazard risks. ...

Critical Asset and Portfolio Risk Analysis for Homeland Security
  • Citing Article
  • July 2008

... Despite the significant contributions of the aforementioned research studies and blast models, they are incapable of: (1) efficiently predicting the performance of all feasible blast wall and building material design alternatives due to the significant computational time and effort required by numerical blast assessment models to analyze each possible combination of blast wall type, building material and facility location Sorensen and McGill 2012); (2) quantifying the effectiveness of feasible frangible blast wall types including sand-filled, water-filled, and wood walls in reducing reflected pressure and impulse loading on facilities; and (3) visualizing the anticipated facility damage areas based upon blast charge weight, blast wall type, and building material combinations. To overcome these limitations, this paper presents the development of an innovative model that is capable of efficiently quantifying and visualizing blast effects on facilities behind blast walls of various materials in order to support designers in their critical task of identifying the most effective design for blast walls and facility hardening. ...

Utilization of Existing Blast Analysis Software Packages for the Back-Calculation of Blast Loads
  • Citing Article
  • August 2012

Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities

... When operations on the interval discretizations are handled with interval analysis, the method constitutes verified computation for probability distributions. The methods of probability bounds analysis are available in several software implementations, including multiple free demonstration programs (e.g., Berleant and Zhang 2004), a full-featured stand-alone commercial program (Ferson 2002), an advanced add-in for Microsoft Excel developed for NASA (Ferson et al. 2011), and a package in development for the statistical computing language R (R Development Core Team 2010). ...

Uncertainty Arithmetic on Excel Spreadsheets: Add-In for Intervals, Probability Distributions, and Probability Boxes
  • Citing Conference Paper
  • November 2011

... including Bayesian methods [15,16,17,18], random sets [19,20,21], sets of probability measures [22], evidence theory-based methods (such as Dempster-Shafer Theory) [23,24,25,26] and interval probabilities [27] of which probability bounds methods [28] and fuzzy stochastic methods [29,30] are extensions. Furthermore, a study of Monte Carlo methods for the general case of propagating imprecise probabilities is given for instance in [31] or [32]. ...

Estimating parameter distributions in structural reliability assessment using the Transferable Belief Model
  • Citing Article
  • May 2008

Computers & Structures

... Qualitative and quantitative studies of bad behavior in online settings have been carried out considering newsgroups, 26 online chat and video communities, 36 and online multiplayer video games. 37 More recently, an emerging line of work has focused on misbehavior and deception in forums, 38,39 community-answering questions, 40 and social networks in general. 39 ...

Early Detection of Policies Violations in a Social Media Site: A Bayesian Belief Network Approach
  • Citing Conference Paper
  • Full-text available
  • July 2012

... Examples of E&S hazards, which are directly-controllable by SCs include: type of fuel in manufacturing and transportation, wastewater intensity and unfair labour wages. Non-directly controllable E&S risks include natural disasters (tornados, droughts, etc.), political unrest, famine, war, etc. Natural disasters have received more attention in the academic literature (see, for example : Yang, 2007;Ayyub et al., 2009;Bilsel and Ravindran, 2012;Vazquez-Brust et al., 2012;Kungwalsong andRavindran, 2012, 2014) as they have been included in the list of disruptive risks, which occur infrequently but which can bring considerable damages to the SC. Risks stemming from supplier irresponsibility in terms of violation of ethical and environmental standards have only recently become a prominent topic within the field of supply management and global sourcing. ...

Risk Analysis of a Protected Hurricane-Prone Region. II: Computations and Illustrations

Natural Hazards Review

... In this regard, it is perhaps surprising, that the wellestablished approach to representing the failure of flood defence infrastructure, using probability distributions known as fragility curves (e.g., Apel et al., 2004;Ayyub et al., 2009;Schultz et al., 2010;Simm & Tarrant, 2018;USACE, 1996;Vorogushyn et al., 2010) as part of the risk analysis process, is not universally implemented. Many flooding studies still rely on methods that have, as a prerequisite, an assumption that flood defences and related infrastructure cannot fail. ...

Risk Analysis of a Protected Hurricane-Prone Region. I: Model Development

Natural Hazards Review

... However, policymakers already make decisions in a more complicated context than a wellstructured elicitation instrument could likely control for, addressing, for example, distributional effects of government investment, risk perception, and public engagement. (49,50) These results thus suggest that communication issues-already prominent in the risk and technology literature (51,52) -are an even more important challenge when using elicitations to characterize future outcomes. ...

LinkIT: A Ludic Elicitation Game for Eliciting Risk Perceptions
  • Citing Article
  • October 2012

... As floor systems concave under blast load, the net upward loads at upper floors and tension force appear frequently, therefore, a column will collapse if the applied tension load results in an internal stress that is larger than the material's tensile strength. The column's cross-section subsequently starts to lengthen, shrink, or neck until the combined failure modes (buckling, necking, and shear tearing) tear it apart into two pieces Duc Ngo (2007), Sorensen and McGill (2011). The concept of uplifting due to explosion is shown in Fig. 14 Duc Ngo (2007). ...

What to look for in the aftermath of an explosion? A review of blast scene damage observables
  • Citing Article
  • April 2011

Engineering Failure Analysis