William G. Axinn’s research while affiliated with Concordia University Ann Arbor and other places

The evaluation of innovative web-based data collection methods that are convenient for the general public and that yield high-quality scientific information for demographic researchers has become critical. Web-based methods are crucial for researchers with nationally representative research objectives but without the resources of larger organizations. The web mode is appealing because it is inexpensive relative to in-person and telephone modes, and it affords a high level of privacy. We evaluate a sequential mixed-mode web/mail data collection, conducted with a national probability sample of U.S. adults from 2020 to 2022. The survey topics focus on reproductive health and family formation. We compare estimates from this survey to those obtained from a face-to-face national survey of population reproductive health: the 2017–2019 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). This comparison allows for maximum design complexity, including a complex household screening operation (to identify households with persons aged 18–49). We evaluate the ability of this national web/mail data collection approach to (1) recruit a representative sample of U.S. persons aged 18–49; (2) replicate key survey estimates based on the NSFG, considering expected effects of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns and the alternative modes on the estimates; (3) reduce complex sample design effects relative to the NSFG; and (4) reduce the costs per completed survey.

Background Major depressive disorder (MDD) is the leading cause of disability globally, with moderate heritability and well-established socio-environmental risk factors. Genetic studies have been mostly restricted to European settings, with polygenic scores (PGS) demonstrating low portability across diverse global populations. Methods This study examines genetic architecture, polygenic prediction, and socio-environmental correlates of MDD in a family-based sample of 10 032 individuals from Nepal with array genotyping data. We used genome-based restricted maximum likelihood to estimate heritability, applied S-LDXR to estimate the cross-ancestry genetic correlation between Nepalese and European samples, and modeled PGS trained on a GWAS meta-analysis of European and East Asian ancestry samples. ResultsWe estimated the narrow-sense heritability of lifetime MDD in Nepal to be 0.26 (95% CI 0.18–0.34, p = 8.5 × 10−6). Our analysis was underpowered to estimate the cross-ancestry genetic correlation (rg = 0.26, 95% CI −0.29 to 0.81). MDD risk was associated with higher age (beta = 0.071, 95% CI 0.06–0.08), female sex (beta = 0.160, 95% CI 0.15–0.17), and childhood exposure to potentially traumatic events (beta = 0.050, 95% CI 0.03–0.07), while neither the depression PGS (beta = 0.004, 95% CI −0.004 to 0.01) or its interaction with childhood trauma (beta = 0.007, 95% CI −0.01 to 0.03) were strongly associated with MDD. Conclusions Estimates of lifetime MDD heritability in this Nepalese sample were similar to previous European ancestry samples, but PGS trained on European data did not predict MDD in this sample. This may be due to differences in ancestry-linked causal variants, differences in depression phenotyping between the training and target data, or setting-specific environmental factors that modulate genetic effects. Additional research among under-represented global populations will ensure equitable translation of genomic findings.

Objective This work investigates the potential associations between maternal major depressive disorder (MDD) and daughters' family formation behaviors, specifically the timing of marriage and first birth. Background Family and life course research has established the importance of intergenerational ties and linked lives for children's health, education, social life, and transition to adulthood more broadly. However, mothers' MDD has remained a relatively understudied factor shaping young people's family formation behaviors. Method The analyses used a sample of 1127 linked mother–father–daughter triads from the Chitwan Valley Family Study (CVFS) in Nepal. Discrete‐time event‐history models at the month level were run to assess whether daughters' differential exposure to maternal MDD was prospectively associated with entry into marital unions and parenthood. Results Although there was no relationship between maternal lifetime MDD and daughters' family formation, results showed that being first exposed to maternal MDD during childhood, specifically between the ages of 0 and 10, increased the monthly odds of transitioning to parenthood by more than 80%. Additional findings showed that an increased pace of getting married was a primary determinant of accelerated childbearing. Conclusion Daughters' exposure to mothers' depression was associated with daughters' family formation transitions. The timing of exposure, however, was a particularly important driver of that association. We argue that the study of parents' mental ill‐health provides untapped opportunity for future intergenerational research.

Forced intercourse is a high prevalence experience among US women, with high potential to produce subsequent major depressive episodes (MDE). However, the extent to which prior risk factors are associated with the timing of both sexual assault experiences and subsequent MDE onset is not known. The aim of this study was to document the associations between childhood depression, subsequent forced intercourse, and later MDE. We used retrospective information on childhood depression, forced intercourse, and MDE after forced intercourse from female respondents in the nationally representative 2017 US Panel Study of Income Dynamics-Transition to Adulthood Supplement (PSID-TAS, N = 1298, response rate: 87%). Multivariable logistic regression estimated these associations, controlling for age, race, poverty, religiosity, family history of depression, and adverse childhood experiences (such as parental physical abuse or parental violence). Women who experienced childhood depression (prevalence: 15%) had 2.57 times the odds of experiencing forced intercourse after depression onset, even after adjusting for these other risk factors. However, even though childhood depression is a powerful risk factor for later MDE, independent of that women who experienced forced intercourse had 2.28 times the odds of experiencing MDE after the occurrence of forced intercourse, adjusting for childhood depression and other risk factors. This study provided the first clear evidence for time-ordered associations between forced intercourse and subsequent MDE among women in the general population.

Aims To measure the independent consequences of community‐level armed conflict beatings on alcohol use disorders (AUD) among males in Nepal during and after the 2000–2006 conflict. Design A population‐representative panel study from Nepal, with precise measures of community‐level violent events and subsequent individual‐level AUD in males. Females were not included because of low AUD prevalence. Setting Chitwan, Nepal. Participants Four thousand eight hundred seventy‐six males from 151 neighborhoods, systematically selected and representative of Western Chitwan. All residents aged 15–59 were eligible (response rate 93%). Measurements Measures of beatings in the community during the conflict (2000–2006), including the date and distance away, were gathered through neighborhood reports, geo‐location and official resources, then linked to respondents' life histories of AUD (collected in 2016–2018) using the Nepal‐specific Composite International Diagnostic Interview with life history calendar. Beatings nearby predict the subsequent onset of AUD during and after the armed conflict. Data were analyzed in 2021–2022. Findings Cohort‐specific, discrete‐time models revealed that within the youngest cohort (born 1992–2001), those living in neighborhoods where armed conflict beatings occurred were more likely to develop AUD compared with those in other neighborhoods (odds ratio = 1.66; 95% confidence interval = 1.02–2.71). In this cohort, a multilevel matching analysis designed to simulate a randomized trial showed the post‐conflict incidence of AUD for those living in neighborhoods with any armed conflict beatings was 9.5% compared with 5.3% in the matched sample with no beatings. Conclusions Among male children living in Chitwan, Nepal during the 2000–2006 armed conflict, living in a neighborhood where armed conflict beatings occurred is associated with increased odds of developing subsequent alcohol use disorder. This association was independent of personal exposure to beatings and other mental disorders.

The American Family Health Study (AFHS) collected family health and fertility data from a national probability sample of persons aged 18–49 between September 2021 and May 2022, using web and mail exclusively. In July 2022, we surveyed AFHS respondents and gauged their willingness to become part of a national web panel that would create novel longitudinal data on these topics. We focus on predictors of willingness to participate, identifying the potential selection bias that this type of approach may introduce. We found that efforts of this type to create a national web panel may introduce potential selection bias in estimates based on the panel respondents, with individuals having higher socioeconomic status being more cooperative. Thus, alternative recruitment strategies and re-weighting of the subsample may be needed to further reduce selection bias. We present methodological implications of our results, limitations of our approach, and suggestions for further research on this topic.