Willem E. Frankenhuis’s research while affiliated with Max Planck Institute for the Study of Crime, Security and Law and other places

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Publications (126)


Poverty is associated with both risk avoidance and risk taking: empirical evidence for the desperation threshold model from the UK and France
  • Article
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February 2025

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13 Reads

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Willem E. Frankenhuis

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In situations of poverty, do people take more or less risk? One hypothesis states that poverty makes people avoid risk, because they cannot buffer against losses, while another states that poverty makes people take risks, because they have little to lose. Each hypothesis has some previous empirical support. Here, we test the ‘desperation threshold’ model, which integrates both hypotheses. We assume that people attempt to stay above a critical level of resources, representing their ‘basic needs’. Just above this threshold, people have much to lose and should avoid risk. Below, they have little to lose and should take risks. We conducted preregistered tests of the model using survey data from 472 adults in France and the UK. The predictor variables were subjective and objective measures of current resources. The outcome measure, risk taking, was measured using a series of hypothetical gambles. Risk taking followed a V-shape against subjective resources, first decreasing and then increasing again as resources reduced. This pattern was not observed for the objective resource measure. We also found that risk taking was more variable among people with fewer resources. Our findings synthesize the split literature on poverty and risk taking, with implications for policy and interventions.

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Recognizing People's Agency Amidst Disadvantage: How to Study Inequality Using a Holistic Approach That is Accurate and Non‐Stigmatizing

January 2025

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4 Reads

Social and Personality Psychology Compass

In understanding the psychology of social inequalities, research has often portrayed groups of individuals in disadvantaged positions as lacking in agency, skills, or motivation–portrayals that can stigmatize these groups. Countering this stigma, recent developments have been made in so‐called “strength‐based” research to better understand and acknowledge the agency, skills, and motivation people in disadvantaged positions often show. Yet, this research is not focused on understanding how inequalities emerge. The present research explores ways to study inequalities without risking to stigmatize people. For example, how can we address disparities in certain motivational factors (e.g., belonging, or confidence) without stigmatizing groups as lacking motivation? And how can we study the way people experience disadvantage without reducing them to the role of weak, passive victims? To answer such questions, we integrate traditional social‐inequality research with recent advances in strength‐based research in what we call a “holistic approach” to studying inequality. At the core of this approach is a simultaneous recognition of context‐level disadvantage (a focus of traditional inequality research) and individual‐level agency (a focus of strength‐based research). This approach allows for a broader–a holistic–perspective on existing inequality‐research, and points to underexplored research questions within social psychology (e.g., how do people actively respond to disadvantage?). After outlining this approach, we distill it into 10 practical guidelines and illustrate how to implement guidelines in an existing research agenda. In doing so, we hope to support authors, reviewers, editors, and other stakeholders aiming for an accurate and non‐stigmatizing study of inequalities.


Overview of predictions derived from deficit and adaptation frameworks. Panel (a) depicts the most likely between-person data patterns based on previous literature, and whether we would consider them consistent with deficit and adaptation frameworks (see the main text for more details). Panel (b) depicts an overview of the preregistered Structural Equation Model. Note that this model differs slightly from the final model (see figure 4). Ellipses represent latent variables, rectangles represent manifest variables and circles represent residual variances. Unidirectional solid lines represent factor loadings, bidirectional solid lines represent covariances and dashed lines represent regression paths. All four manifest WM measures loaded on a latent WM capacity factor, reflecting the fact that people have to hold information active in WM on all tasks. We fixed the loading of WM capacity on the Binding Task to 1, reflecting the idea that the ability to create and maintain bindings is the main limiting factor in WM capacity [41–43]. WM updating was modelled as a latent factor capturing the residual variance in the updating task after accounting for variance related to WM capacity. INR = income-to-needs ratio; Perc. Scarcity = perceived scarcity; s.d. = standard deviation.
Overview of the different data sources used in this study. We distinguished between measures taken from the LISS data archive and measures that were newly collected in our own study between October 2023 and February 2024. Perceived scarcity and income were collected yearly in the full panel from 2008 to 2023. Neighbourhood crime and crime victimization were collected across six waves between 2008 and 2018. In the newly collected data, we collected data on a measure of neighbourhood threat and multiple measures of working memory. Note that participants did not have data across all timepoints of the archived studies because they joined the LISS panel more recently or because they did not participate in each wave.
Overview of the working memory tasks. Panel (a): Operation Span Task. Participants memorized letters in the correct order, while engaging in a secondary math task. Panel (b): Rotation Span Task. Participants memorized the orientation of arrows, while judging whether letters were mirrored or normal in a secondary task. Panel (c): Participants memorized numbers in the correct location in a 3×3 grid. On half of the trials, all numbers were presented in unique locations, only requiring binding the numbers to the correct position. On the other half, some numbers were presented in the same location as a previously presented number, requiring updating. Note: stimuli are not to scale.
Overview of the final measurement model of WM performance. Ellipses represent latent variables, rectangles represent manifest variables and circles represent unstandardized residual variances. Unidirectional lines represent standardized factor loadings and bidirectional lines represent covariances. All four manifest WM measures loaded on a latent WM capacity factor, reflecting the fact that people have to hold information active in WM on all tasks. We fixed the loading of WM capacity on the Binding Task to 1, reflecting the idea that the ability to create and maintain bindings is the main limiting factor in WM capacity [41–43]. WM updating was modelled as a latent factor capturing the residual variance in the updating task after accounting for variance related to WM capacity. WM = working memory; Ospan = Operation Span; Rspan = Rotation Span.
Results of the structural part of the SEM model testing the association between threat, deprivation and unpredictability on latent estimates of WM capacity and WM updating. The grey area shows the area of practical equivalence. Solid points indicate effects outside the area of practical equivalence, which was true for all effects. Standard errors represent the 95% confidence intervals. CV = coefficient of variation; INR = income-to-needs ratio; M = mean; WM = working memory.
Inconclusive evidence for associations between adverse experiences in adulthood and working memory performance

January 2025

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41 Reads

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1 Citation

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Willem E. Frankenhuis

Decades of research have shown that adversity tends to be associated with lower working memory (WM) performance. This literature has mainly focused on impairments in the capacity to hold information available in WM for further processing. However, some recent adaptation-based studies suggest that certain types of adversity can leave intact, or even enhance, the ability to rapidly update information in WM. One key challenge is that WM capacity and updating tasks tend to covary, as both types of tasks require the creation and maintenance of bindings in WM; links between mental representations of information in WM. To estimate the associations between adversity and different processes in WM, we need to isolate variance in performance related to WM capacity from variance in performance related to updating ability. In this Registered Report, participants from the Dutch Longitudinal Internet studies for the Social Sciences (LISS) panel completed three WM tasks: two complex span tasks and a task measuring both binding and updating of information. In addition, we estimated participants’ exposure to neighbourhood threat, material deprivation and unpredictability. We estimated associations between the three types of adversity and latent estimates of WM capacity and updating using structural equation modelling. We did not find consistent associations between adversity and WM capacity or updating, nor did we find evidence that the associations were practically equivalent to zero. Our results show that adversity researchers should account for overlap in WM tasks when estimating specific WM abilities.


Adversity is associated with lower general processing speed rather than specific executive functioning abilities

December 2024

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13 Reads

Exposure to adversity may impair executive functioning (i.e., deficit frameworks), but could also enhance, or leave intact, specific EF abilities (i.e., adaptation frameworks). Both frameworks often use raw performance (e.g., speed) to estimate EF ability. However, this approach (1) conflates different cognitive processes, and (2) generally does not distinguish specific EF abilities from processes that are shared across EF tasks, such as general processing speed. Here, we integrate deficit and adaptation frameworks by building bridges with mathematical and cognitive psychology. Specifically, we use cognitive modeling (Drift Diffusion Modeling) to isolate different cognitive processes: speed of information accumulation, response caution, and speed of stimulus encoding and response execution. We then use structural equation modeling to investigate whether associations between adversity and cognitive processes are task-general or ability-specific. We recruited 1061 participants from the Dutch LISS panel. Participants completed a basic processing speed task, two inhibition tasks, and three attention-shifting tasks. We measured exposure to threat and material deprivation in childhood and adulthood. Exposure to threat (but not material deprivation) in adulthood was negatively associated with task-general processing speed. After accounting for task-general processes, remaining variance was not related to either inhibition or attention-shifting ability. Non-preregistered analyses showed that childhood exposure to material deprivation and threat were negatively associated with (1) general processing speed, and (2) task-specific information accumulation. The latter reflected unique features of individual tasks, rather than specific EF abilities. Taken together, these results suggest that adversity researchers overestimate associations between adversity and specific EF abilities when analyzing raw performance.


Developmental Frameworks, What Have You Done for Me Lately?

November 2024

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30 Reads

Frameworks are widespread in developmental psychology. They offer general ideas about what to study in human development: which concepts to focus on (e.g., systems, trade-offs), which processes to test (e.g., micro-macro, bidirectional), and which methods to use (e.g., interview, equations). However, despite their prominence, there exists very little consensus or guidance on how to use them in research. As such, frameworks have an obscure role: they influence our research questions, methods, and theory, but often in ways we cannot articulate for ourselves, let alone for others. This paper presents a practical guide for leveraging frameworks to improve developmental research. We suggest that frameworks can guide us through a research project’s “map of conceptual terrain”: which questions to ask and how to study them. We first classify these considerations into topic areas (i.e., “regions”), including assumptions and ideas about timescales and processes of developmental change. We then offer a strategy for charting a “path” through these regions, creating chains of logic to make increasingly specific claims and choices, from framework to research practice. As an illustrative example, we use Bronfenbrenner’s bioecological framework to study parent-child relationships, highlighting its affordances and limitations. We also draw contrast with other prominent frameworks, showcasing how different frameworks can alter a researcher’s path. Our proposed explicit and systematic use of frameworks can serve as a powerful navigation system for building and refining research programs. Thus, our paper provides a guide for developmental scientists to more explicitly use and capitalize on frameworks in their empirical research.


Figure 2.. Overview of the different data sources used in this study. We distinguished between measures taken from the LISS data archive and measures that were newly collected in our own
Figure 4. Overview of the final measurement model of WM performance. Ellipses represent latent variables, rectangles represent manifest variables, and circles represent unstandardised residual variances. Unidirectional lines represent standardised factor loadings and bidirectional lines represent covariances. All four manifest WM measures loaded on a latent WM capacity factor, reflecting the fact that people have to hold information active in WM on all tasks. We fixed the loading of WM capacity on the Binding Task to 1, reflecting the idea that the ability to create and maintain bindings is the main limiting factor in WM capacity (Gruszka & Nęcka, 2017; Oberauer, 2009; Wilhelm et al., 2013). WM updating was modelled as a latent factor capturing the residual variance in the updating task after accounting for variance related to WM capacity. WM = working memory; Ospan = Operation Span; Rspan = Rotation Span.
Descriptive statistics.
Inconclusive evidence for associations between adverse experiences in adulthood and working memory performance

October 2024

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50 Reads

Decades of research have shown that adversity tends to be associated with lower working memory (WM) performance. This literature has mainly focused on impairments in the capacity to hold information available in WM for further processing. However, some recent adaptation-based studies suggest that certain types of adversity can leave intact, or even enhance, the ability to rapidly update information in WM. One key challenge is that WM capacity and updating tasks tend to covary, as both types of tasks require the creation and maintenance of bindings in WM; links between mental representations of information in WM. To estimate the associations between adversity and different processes in WM, we need to isolate variance in performance related to WM capacity from variance in performance related to updating ability. In this Registered Report, participants from the Dutch Longitudinal Internet studies for the Social Sciences (LISS) panel completed three WM tasks: two complex span tasks and a task measuring both binding and updating of information. In addition, we estimated participants’ exposure to neighbourhood threat, material deprivation, and unpredictability. We estimated associations between the three types of adversity and latent estimates of WM capacity and updating using structural equation modeling. We did not find consistent associations between adversity and WM capacity or updating, nor did we find evidence that the associations were practically equivalent to zero. Our results show that adversity researchers should account for overlap in WM tasks when estimating specific WM abilities.


Short-Term Mindsets and Crime

October 2024

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129 Reads

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2 Citations

Annual Review of Criminology

We propose the concept of short-term mindsets as an alternative to self-control as envisioned in Gottfredson & Hirschi's self-control theory (SCT). We lay out a competing perspective, short-term mindsets theory (STMT), based on this novel concept. STMT assumes that short-term mindsets are partly rooted in enduring individual differences and in part develop in response to criminogenic environments, events, and experiences. STMT connects individual-level perspectives to sociogenic views by explaining how several risk factors of crime (e.g., negative parenting, delinquent peers, substance use) all impact on short-term mindsets. Exposure to one risk factor encourages short-term mindsets that, in turn, make exposure to other risk factors more likely, thereby increasing the likelihood of crime. We show that STMT enjoys stronger empirical support than SCT, better aligns with other theory, and can account for phenomena typically considered at odds with, or outside the purview of, SCT.



Figure 1. Conceptual visualization of Woodcock-Johnson statistical models. A) is the main effect of adversity on overall performance; B) is the main effect of a subtest, which reflects the average performance on a subtest; C) is the simple effect (slope) of adversity for a particular subtest; and D) is the interaction effect that measures the difference between A and C. A significant simple effect means C ≠ 0, and a significant interaction means A ≠ C. Put differently, when C is significant, adversity is associated with performance on a subtest. When D is significant, the association between adversity and a subtest (C) is different than the association between adversity and the overall effect (A).
Bivariate correlations and descriptive statistics for adversity measures
How does adversity relate to performance across different abilities within individuals?

September 2024

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103 Reads

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2 Citations

Development and Psychopathology

The idea that some abilities might be enhanced by adversity is gaining traction. Adaptation-based approaches have uncovered a few specific abilities enhanced by particular adversity exposures. Yet, for a field to grow, we must not dig too deep, too soon. In this paper, we complement confirmatory research with principled exploration. We draw on two insights from adaptation-based research: 1) enhanced performance manifests within individuals, and 2) reduced and enhanced performance can co-occur. Although commonly assumed, relative performance differences are rarely tested. To quantify them, we need a wide variety of ability measures. However, rather than using adaptive logic to predict which abilities are enhanced or reduced, we develop statistical criteria to identify three data patterns: reduced, enhanced, and intact performance. With these criteria, we analyzed data from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development to investigate how adversity shapes within-person performance across 10 abilities in a cognitive and achievement battery. Our goals are to document adversity-shaped cognitive performance patterns, identify drivers of reduced performance, identify sets of “intact” abilities, and discover new enhanced abilities. We believe principled exploration with clear criteria can help break new theoretical and empirical ground, remap old territory, and advance theory development.


Citations (65)


... Delinquency carries high social and financial costs. A key driver of delinquency is the tendency to prioritize the present and to ignore or neglect the longer term consequences of one's behavior (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990;Van Gelder & Frankenhuis, 2025). This tendency may be related to the degree to which people identify with their 'future self' (e.g., Hershfield, 2011;Van Gelder et al., 2015, 2022. ...

Reference:

The DID-guide: A guide to developing digital mental health interventions
Short-Term Mindsets and Crime

Annual Review of Criminology

... We computed unpredictability over time in perceived scarcity using the coefficient of variation, which is the within-person standard deviation across years divided by the mean [49,[61][62][63][64]. The mean and standard deviation in income have been found to be strongly positively correlated, indicating that people with lower incomes tend to experience less variability in income [65,66]. For that reason, the standard deviation alone has been called into question as a measure of adversity, as the same fluctuation in income can have a greater relative impact for people close to the poverty line than for people with high incomes. ...

How does adversity relate to performance across different abilities within individuals?

Development and Psychopathology

... In line with expectations, they found that both indicators of short-term mindsets mediated the relation between corporal and inconsistent punishment and delinquency, controlling for prior measures of delinquency, future orientation, and impulsivity as well as gender, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. These findings were replicated and extended by Deitzer et al. (2024) in two studies, one using z-proso data and the other using the PROmoting School-community-university Partnerships to Enhance Resilience (PROSPER) data set. These authors used various indicators of environmental harshness (including corporal punishment, family/parent violence, violent peers/groups, and victimization/bullying) and unpredictability (low socioeconomic status, family instability, and inconsistent parenting) and operationalized short-term mindsets through measures of impulsivity, (low) future orientation, and sensation-seeking. ...

Why Do Harsh and Unpredictable Environments Lead to Delinquency? The Case for Unpredictability Schemas and Short-Term Mindsets

Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency

... This definition is inspired by, but deviates from the harshness-unpredictability framework, in which unpredictability is defined as stochastic variation in harshness (age-specific rates in morbidity and mortality) over space and time [4,5]. We did not calculate unpredictability in neighbourhood threat given that participants had at most six timepoints, and often as few as one or two, which is insufficient to calculate variation over time [49]. ...

A Framework for Studying Environmental Statistics in Developmental Science

Psychological Methods

... One of the variants of traumatic experience is the abandonment of the child by a parent, leading to a history of institutionalisation. There is currently a consensus regarding the negative impact of institutionalisation on child development (Anthony et al., 2019;Bakermans-Kranenburg et al., 2003;Beckett et al., 2006), formed on the basis of an understanding of the consequences outlined in attachment theory (Bowlby, 1951;Bowlby, 1953), the concept of sensitive periods in early ontogenesis (Walasek et al., 2024) and an analysis of the consequences of stressful events on children (Gunnar and Quevedo, 2007;McLaughlin et al., 2019). ...

The evolution of sensitive periods beyond early ontogeny: Bridging theory and data

... Importantly, not all children from low-income backgrounds exhibit lower cognitive performance. However, most studies have adopted a deficit-based approach, which overlooks this heterogeneity present within youth living in poverty (DeJoseph et al., 2024). Adopting an adaptation or strength-based framework ...

The promise and pitfalls of a strength-based approach to child poverty and neurocognitive development: Implications for policy

Developmental Cognitive Neuroscience

... Classroom questions pre-designed by teachers can be categorized into types such as introduction, progression, diagnosis, inquiry, and conclusion 16 . A combination of these types can facilitate students' understanding of subject knowledge 49,50 . However, due to their lack of teaching experience, novice teachers often struggle to design high-quality classroom questions 51,52 . ...

Math items about real-world content lower test-scores of students from families with low socioeconomic status

npj Science of Learning

... Indeed, low self-control's indirect effect on crime, through social ties, appears to be even larger than its direct effect (Wright et al. 2001). Furthermore, as was discussed previously in Section 2.2, there is increasing evidence that different predictors of crime, such as the risk factors peers and negative parenting, also affect levels of self-control (Defoe et al. 2021, Kübel et al. 2024, van Gelder et al. 2018. ...

Beyond the Situation: Hanging Out with Peers now is Associated with Short-Term Mindsets Later

Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology

... The SSP model is more precise, but applicable only to the Flanker task. Previous studies have successfully applied the DDM to Flanker task data (e.g., Löffler et al., 2024;Vermeent et al., 2024). However, unlike the DDM, the SSP model affords testing hypotheses about the association between adversity and attentional interference in the Flanker task. ...

Cognitive deficits and enhancements in youth from adverse conditions: An integrative assessment using Drift Diffusion Modeling in the ABCD study

Developmental Science

... We argue that two factors go a long way in explaining this situation. First, the current academic system fails to sufficiently incentivize the development and testing of precise theories (Frankenhuis et al., 2023). Developing precise theories often takes a lot of time and effort. ...

Strategic Ambiguity in the Social Sciences

Social Psychological Bulletin