Wenyi Shen’s research while affiliated with Oklahoma State University Oklahoma City and other places

... Furthermore, different trend forecast graphs could intuitively demonstrate the decisive impact of the relative interest rate levels of U.S. bonds on the federal government's debt-to-GDP ratio. These aspects could serve as significant supplements and extensions to existing literature (Uchida & Ono, 2023;Mao et al., 2024). Of course, these trend forecasts are solely based on actual fiscal and economic data from the United States in 2022 as the initial conditions. ...

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An Analysis of the Sustainability Issues of U.S. Treasury Bonds—A Study Based on the Vector Error Correction Model and Trend Forecasting

... Regional Statistics, Vol. 14. No. 3. 2024: 1-19; DOI: 10.15196/RS140301 Mao et al. 2023). However, money financing does not seem to be an option in the high-inflation environment of the 2020s. ...

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Impact of government spending shocks in the Visegrad countries, 1999Q1–2019Q4

... However, in less than a month after this resolution, the federal government's debt balance increased by 700 billion dollars, reaching a staggering 32.1 trillion dollars, with a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 120%. Since the turn of the century, the size of the federal government's debt in the United States has witnessed a rapid expansion, particularly during the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic (Aldama & Creel, 2019;Bi et al., 2022). The large-scale stimulus programs implemented by the federal government to mitigate the impact of these crises have further fueled the growth of its debt. ...

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An Analysis of the Sustainability Issues of U.S. Treasury Bonds—A Study Based on the Vector Error Correction Model and Trend Forecasting

... A ) is set to 0.0035, as suggested byAraujo et al. (2016) with reference to countries in the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa. Private and public capital depreciation rates (δ and δ g , respectively) are borrowed fromShen et al. (2018) who assume that the latter is half of the former, at 0.025 and 0.0125, respectively.Fiscal policy. Government revenue and expenditure parameters are set to fit central government data. ...

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The Macroeconomic and Welfare Benefits of Building Resilience in Disaster-Prone Developing Countries

... The first is economic, which means that beyond an acceptable tax threshold, economic activity ceases to meet tax requirements. The second constraint is political, which means that voters are allergic to tax increase policies [46][47][48]. ...

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Tax Amnesty in Morocco: Solution to a Crisis or a Crisis of Solution

... 10 Mian, Straub, and Sufi (2022) present a calibration to the US that indicates the corresponding debt level at flipping point (point F*) and 2.5 percent of primary surplus (point LL) would be 220 and 272 percent of GDP, respectively. For the United States, Bi, Shen, and Yang (2022) find that the probability of default reaches 70 percent at a debt level of 275 percent of GDP. ...

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The Return to Fiscal Rules

... The PR has a mean of 11,09 basis points, whereas the FED has a mean of 4,35 basis points. The lower mean statistic for FED reflects the U.S. accommodative nature of monetary policy, which began during the great moderation and halted during the stagflation in February 2022 (Caceres et al., 2016;Bi et al., 2022). Since 2002, the SARB has maintained an inflation target of 3-to 6 per cent by keeping the repo rate tight. ...

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Does financial stability spur or retard output and price stability in South Africa?

... Scholars have proposed innovative approaches to extend DSGE models, allowing a deeper examination of the macroeconomic impact of fiscal policies. Some developments in the analysis of fiscal policy through the DSGE models include Cogan et al. [10], Eggertsson [24], Woodford [25], Christiano et al. [26], Stähler and Thomas [27], 2 Bilbiie et al. [28], Zubairy [18], Dupaigne and Fève [29], Drygalla et al. [30], 3 Bhattarai and Trzeciakiewicz [31], 4 Giambattista and Pennings [32], Mehrotra [33], Aursland et al. [34], 5 Fotiou et al. [35], Adrian et al. [36], and Lemoine and Lindé [37]. However, a common shortcoming of these studies is that the model setting focuses on developed nations such as the United States, and major EU economies. ...

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Effects of Expansionary Fiscal Policy in a Commodity-Exporting Economy: Evidence from Mongolia

... and FEVD under different economic conditions. These methods are well suited for state-dependent time series models and have advantages over the traditional Vector Autoregression (VAR) methods, and have been applied in similar settings by Auerbach and Gorodnichenko (2012a,b, 2013, Ramey and Zubairy (2018), Owyang, Ramey, and Zubairy (2013), Cassou (2016, 2021), Fotiou, Shen, and Yang (2020), and Ahmed, Cassou, and Kishan (2024). ...

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Are Transfer Payments Stimulative?—Sometimes

... While the SSC multiplier remains smaller than the expenditure (government consumption) multiplier, it yields more persistent GDP effects and expands the tax bases. These two features reduce the budgetary cost, making this 2 For example, Shen and Yang (2018) find that in a closed economy, DNWR enhances the expansionary effects of government spending through reductions in unemployment and positive income effects. In an open economy with fixed exchange rates, SSC reductions can mimic an exchange rate devaluation, similar in spirit to the wage subsidies proposed by Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe (2016). ...

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Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity and Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union