Ward Edwards's research while affiliated with University of Southern California and other places

Publications (12)

Article
The analysis of decision making under uncertainty has again become a major focus of interest. This volume presents contributions from leading specialists in different fields and provides a summary and synthesis of work in this area. It is based on a conference held at the Harvard Business School. The book brings together the different approaches to...
Article
the main intent of this essay, aside from reviewing some of the literature, is to . . . try to find a meaningful perspective, in light of this research, from which to assess what to expect from people faced with difficult intellectual tasks systematic errors in human performance of inference and decision-making tasks the research paradigm for f...
Chapter
On their way to social acceptance, many technologies experience periods of public concern, controversy, and social opposition. Sometimes these responses to technologies are short episodes, motivated by naive fears or esoteric values of a small segment of the public. As in the case of religious opposition to the implementation of lightning rods (see...
Chapter
On their way to social acceptance, many technologies experience periods of public concern, controversy, and social opposition. Sometimes these responses to technologies are short episodes, motivated by naive fears or esoteric values of a small segment of the public. As in the case of religious opposition to the implementation of lightning rods (see...
Article
Two potential problems challenge the computerization of decision analysis. First, to what extent can the often ill-defined art of structuring be transformed into software. Second, to what extent is past consumers' satisfaction with decision analysis a function of the formal methods and procedures of the theory and rationale of decision theory, and...
Article
Argues that research that reaches conclusions about inaccessible perceptual processes or experience should validate them by exhibiting good reasons to believe that the observed behavior in some sense faithfully reports the inaccessible processes. In the mid-1950s, perceptual researchers widely adopted a validation by cupidity approach. Suitable rew...
Article
The state-of-the-art in decision software is at a level of data storage, display, and computation as an aid to a sophisticated user. Almost certainly, the emerging generation of decision software will be designed to perform a larger range of analyst functions. We have focused on two potential problems challenging the computerization of decision ana...
Article
The notion of 'dominance' in multiattribute utility decision contexts leads to a change in the considered alternative set. The implications of this set change are discussed in relation to the conditions of Wainer's (Wainer, 1976) 'equal weights theorem' and the resulting sensitivity to weighting of importance dimensions demonstrated. Data from thre...
Article
Five procedures for assessing subjective probability distributions over continuous variables were compared using almanac questions as stimuli. The procedures varied on the uncertainty measures used (probabilities, odds, and odds on a logarithmic scale) and the type of response required from the subjects (uncertainty measure or value of the unknown...

Citations

... Economic or decision theories that assume diminishing mar- ginal utility predict that people should prefer an option that reduces losses and gains. People should prefer to hedge against rather than bet on desired outcomes (Edwards & von Winterfeldt, 1986;Fischer, Kamlet, Fienberg, & Schkade, 1986). People do employ hedging as a risk diversification strategy for many signifi- cant financial decisions, such as the composition of their invest- ment portfolio and purchase of insurance. ...
... Economic or decision theories that assume diminishing marginal utility predict that people should prefer an option that reduces losses and gains. People should prefer to hedge against rather than bet on desired outcomes (Edwards & von Winterfeldt, 1986;Fischer, Kamlet, Fienberg, & Schkade, 1986). People do employ hedging as a risk diversification strategy for many significant financial decisions, such as the composition of their investment portfolio and purchase of insurance. ...
... In the process of management and safety risk decision making in coal mine organizations, decision makers are influenced by insufficient experience, inadequate implementation of responsibilities, and limited life value assessment and deliberately make optimistic predictions about preferred actions or results, resulting in poor outcomes; it is difficult to correct this motivational bias. Cognitive bias is a systematic discrepancy between the "correct" answer to a judgmental task, given by a formal normative rule, and the decisionmaker's or expert's actual answer [45]. Analyzing a vast number of historical cases reveals that cognitive biases are prevalent in the course of accidents. ...
... In doing so, individual differences are incorporated as an independent variable to find correlations of attitude toward the decision aid to individual-difference indices. Based on the review of a number of prior research papers [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15], Aldag and Power conducted a laboratory study, in which business students were instructed to analyze ill-structured strategic management cases with or without DSS. An interactive heuristic program was used to solve a case problem by two groups of students. ...
... Subsequently, Swan et al incorporated test-related morbidity in an index based on multiattribute value theory (MAVT), an extension of multiattribute utility theory (MAUT) [9][10][11] with the following seven attributes: pain or discomfort before a test due to any needed preparation, fear or anxiety before a test, pain or discomfort during the test, embarrassment during the test, fear or anxiety during the test, mental state afterward, and physical limitations afterward. This instrument, called the Testing Morbidities Index (TMI), has been used in breast biopsy and screening colonoscopy [12,13] and is based on the input of more than 1,200 clinical patients. ...
... In particular, a value of 1 indicates the best available performance and a high objective achievement, while a value of zero indicates the worst performance. For the assessment of marginal value functions we used the direct rating technique (Beinat 1997;Edwards et al. 1988). In particular, we first described the attributes and selected the score range, we then determined the qualitative characteristics of the marginal value function (monotonicity), we specified values for the selected attribute scores and, finally, we interpolated the values. ...
... According to utility theories [31,32], a farmer's behavior is characterized by a set of attributes (e.g., physical characteristics of the property and socioeconomic characteristics of the farmer). The farmer assesses his/her utility for each attribute on the choice to participate in a conservation program. ...
... statistical) data to avoid these errors. Importantly, as evaluating statistical evidence is complicated (Edwards & von Winterfeldt, 1986), there is a genuine need for valid, scientifically supported assessment methods to assist experts when dealing with complex information in the decision-making process of CSA evaluations (Laajasalo et al., 2018). Evidence that cannot be accounted for statistically, for example due to limited research, still should be considered when drawing expert conclusions. ...
... An important question for future research, then, is how best to represent this underlying parameter uncertainty, given error can result from a number of different interacting sources and different model forms may affect the results of the validity tests presented here. While some work has been performed to link designer biases in decision-making with real-world accidents [79], and quantified distributions for estimation error [78,80,81], future work needs to develop a model of this in the resilient design process and investigate how different uncertainty models affect the resulting determination of validity. ...