Vera Li’s research while affiliated with Hang Seng University of Hong Kong and other places

Based on a VAR (vector auto-regression) model, we conduct an empirical study on the relations between housing prices and the macroeconomy from the perspective of China’s first-, second- and third-tier cities. The results show that the interest rate has significant negative impact on housing prices, but the impact gradually decreases from first-tier to third-tier cities; the effect of inflation on housing prices is positive in the initial period and then becomes negative, and compared with that in second- and third-tier cities, the negative effect in first-tier cities is much more significant; housing prices have a positive effect on inflation, and the effect gradually increases from first-tier to third-tier cities; the influence of the macroeconomic growth rate on housing prices is generally positive in all the cities, and the strongest effect is found for first-tier cities. Based on the findings, our work can provide the government with more targeted policy recommendations, which can offer some new ideas on the regulation of the real estate market.

When China entered a new stage of economic development, namely the "economy's new normal", its economic growth shifted from high-speed to medium-to-high-speed, the economic structure was constantly improved and upgraded, and the economic development shifted from input-driven and investment-driven to innovation-driven. Furthermore, there have been some new developments in the country's real estate market. The previous rapid growth of real estate investment gradually became stable. The consumer demand of real estate was saturated. The real estate market plays an important role in import and export. Many mergers and acquisitions appeared in the real estate industry, and the real estate market differentiation is more obvious. Under this situation, an important question needs to be addressed: Where will China's real estate market go? First, real estate market should envisage the new trend of industrial development. Second, real estate market needs to adapt to the new growth momentum and investment structure. Third, real estate industry can use the traction of the "new normal" to guide itself to develop stably and sustainably. This way, there will be still scope for sustained development and large market capacity in China's real estate industry.