Uwe Mikolajewicz's research while affiliated with Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and other places

Publications (123)

Preprint
Heinrich-type ice-sheet surges are one of the dominant signals of glacial climate variability. They are characterised as abrupt, quasi-periodic episodes of ice-sheet instabilities during which large amounts of ice are discharged from ice sheets into the ocean. The occurence of ice-sheet surges strongly influences the global climate evolution by alt...
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Warming of the North Atlantic region in climate history often was associated with massive melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. To identify the meltwater's impacts and isolate these from internal variability and other global warming factors, we run single‐forcing simulations including small ensembles using three complex climate models differing only...
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Plain Language Summary The last deglaciation marked the transition between the last glacial maximum (LGM; about 21,000 years ago) and present. It was characterized by the disappearance of most northern hemispheric ice sheets (e.g., over North America and Eurasia) and a series of abrupt climate events. To investigate the ability of climate models to...
Preprint
We investigate driving forces of the biogeochemistry of the Benguela upwelling system (BUS) and their temporal changes over the 20th century. For this purpose, we developed a global ocean-only model in a stretched grid configuration, which resolves meso-scale circulation structures in the area of interest. The biogeochemical module of this model is...
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼ 21 000 years ago) has been a major focus for evaluating how well state-of-the-art climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future using paleoclimate reconstructions. A new generation of climate models has been used to generate LGM simulations as part of the Paleoclimate Modelling Int...
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A long simulation over the period 1901–2010 with an eddy-permitting ocean circulation model is used to study the variability of the upper layer circulation in the North Ionian Gyre (NIG) in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea (EMed). The model is driven by the atmospheric forcing from the twentieth century reanalysis data set ERA-20C, ensuring a consiste...
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A realistic simulation of the surface mass balance (SMB) is essential for simulating past and future ice-sheet changes. As most state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs) are not capable of realistically representing processes determining the SMB, most studies of the SMB are limited to observations and regional climate models and cover the last ce...
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New IRSL ages of eolianites close to Muñique (Lanzarote) demonstrate the influence of millennial scale climatic variability on the sedimentary dynamics on the Canary Islands during the last glacial cycle. The repetitive succession of interstadial and stadial climatic conditions formed multiple sequences of eolian deposits, each in general comprisin...
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Observations and models agree that the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) has decreased since the end of the 1990s due to an increase in meltwater runoff and that this trend will accelerate in the future. However, large uncertainties remain, partly due to different approaches for modelling the GrIS SMB, which have to weigh physic...
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Publications on temperate deciduous tree refugia in Europe are abundant, but little is known about the patterns of temperate tree refugia in eastern Asia, an area where biodiversity survived Quaternary glaciations and which has the world's most diverse temperate flora. Our goal is to compare climate model simulations with pollen data in order to es...
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In this paper we introduce a Bayesian framework , which is explicit about prior assumptions, for using model ensembles and observations together to constrain future climate change. The emergent constraint approach has seen broad application in recent years, including studies constraining the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) using the Last Glac...
Preprint
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Most studies analyzing changes in the surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet are limited to the last century, due to the availability of observations and the computational limitations of regional climate modeling. Using transient simulations with a comprehensive Earth System Model (ESM) we extend previous research and study changes i...
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We quantify the change in extreme high sea level (ESL) statistics in the German Bight under rising CO2 concentrations by downscaling a large ensemble of global climate model simulations using the regionally coupled climate system model REMO-MPIOM. While the model setup combines a regionally high resolution with the benefits of a global ocean model,...
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We investigate the changes in terrestrial natural methane emissions between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and preindustrial (PI) periods by performing time-slice experiments with a methane-enabled version of MPI-ESM, the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. We consider all natural sources of methane except for emissions from wild animals and g...
Preprint
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Abstract. Publications on temperate deciduous tree refugia in Europe are abundant, but little is known about the patterns of temperate tree refugia in eastern Asia, an area where biodiversity survived Quaternary glaciations and which has the world's most diverse temperate flora. Our goal is to compare climate model simulations with pollen data in o...
Article
Full-text available
Projected future shoaling of the wintertime mixed layer in the northeast (NE) Atlantic has been shown to induce a regime shift in the main nutrient supply pathway from the Atlantic to the northwest European shelf (NWES) near the end of the 21st century. While reduced winter convection leads to a substantial decrease in the vertical nutrient supply...
Preprint
Full-text available
Abstract. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~ 21,000 years ago) has been a major focus for evaluating how well state-of-the-art climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future using paleoclimate reconstructions. A new generation of climate models have been used to generate LGM simulations as part of the Palaeoclimate M...
Preprint
Full-text available
Abstract. In this paper we introduce a Bayesian framework, which is flexible and explicit about the prior assumptions, for using model ensembles and observations together to constrain future climate change. The emergent constraint approach has seen broad application in recent years, including studies constraining the equilibrium climate sensitivity...
Preprint
Full-text available
Abstract. The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss has been accelerating at a rate of about 20 ± 10 Gt/yr<sup>2</sup> since the end of the 1990's, with around 60 % of this mass loss directly attributed to enhanced surface meltwater runoff. However, in the climate and glaciology communities, different approaches exist on how to model the different s...
Article
Full-text available
Projected future shoaling of the wintertime mixed layer in the Northeast (NE) Atlantic has been shown to induce a regime shift in the main nutrient supply pathway from the Atlantic to the Northwest European Shelf (NWES) near the end of the 21st century. While reduced winter convection leads to a substantial decrease in the vertical nutrient supply...
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Full-text available
We investigate the changes in terrestrial natural methane emissions between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and preindustrial (PI) by performing time-slice experiments with a methane-enabled version of MPI-ESM, the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model. We consider all natural sources of methane except for emissions from wild anima...
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Extreme high sea levels (ESLs) caused by storm floods constitute a major hazard for coastal regions. We here quantify their long-term variability in the southern German Bight using simulations covering the last 1000 years. To this end, global earth system model simulations from the PMIP3 past1000 project are dynamically scaled down with a regionall...
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A new release of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) is presented. The development focused on correcting errors in and improving the physical processes representation, as well as improving the computational performance, versatility, and overall user friendliness. In addition to new radiation and aero...
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We investigate the long-term variability of extreme high sea levels (ESL) in the southern German Bight and associated large-scale forcing mechanisms in the climate system using simulations covering the last 1000 years. To this end, global MPI-ESM simulations from the PMIP3 past1000 project are dynamically scaled-down with a regionally coupled clima...
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Heinrich events are among the dominant modes of glacial climate variability. During these events, massive iceberg armadas were released by the Laurentide Ice Sheet and sailed across the Atlantic where they melted and released freshwater, as well as detritus, that formed characteristic layers on the seafloor. Heinrich events are known for cold clima...
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The impact of tides on the spreading of the Mediterranean Outflow Waters (MOW) in the Gulf of Cadiz is investigated through a series of targeted numerical experiments using an ocean general circulation model. The full ephimeridic luni-solar tidal potential is included as forcing. The model grid is global with a strong zoom around the Iberian Penins...
Chapter
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Continued preservation of cultural heritage requires reliable climate information as input for an accurate projection of possible impacts of climate change. Future climate-induced outdoor risks for cultural heritage can in general be estimated from the information provided by Earth System Models (ESMs). In this paper we present the results of the p...
Research
Supplementary Materials to "The role of tides in the spreading of Mediterranean Outflow waters along the southwestern Iberian margin". Figure S1a: World Ocean Database (Boyer et al. 2013) salinity cross-sections (see black lines in Fig. 2)
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As ice sheets grow or decay, the net flux of freshwater into the ocean changes and the bedrock adjusts due to isostatic adjustments, leading to variations in the bottom topography and the oceanic boundaries. This process was particularly intense during the last deglaciation due to the high rates of ice-sheet melting. It is, therefore, necessary to...
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Full-text available
The continually evolving large ice sheets present in the Northern Hemisphere during the last glacial cycle caused significant changes to river pathways both through directly blocking rivers and through glacial isostatic adjustment. Studies have shown these river pathway changes had a significant impact on the ocean circulation through changing the...
Article
Full-text available
To enhance understanding of Earth's climate, numerical experiments are performed contrasting a retrograde and prograde rotating Earth using the Max Planck Institute Earth system model. The experiments show that the sense of rotation has relatively little impact on the globally and zonally averaged energy budgets but leads to large shifts in contine...
Article
This study analyzes the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to different CO2 concentrations and two ice sheet configurations in simulations with the coupled climate model MPI-ESM. With preindustrial (PI) ice sheets, there are two different AMOC states within the studied CO2 range: one state with a strong and deep uppe...
Article
Full-text available
As ice sheets grow or decay, the net flux of freshwater into the ocean changes and the bedrock adjusts due to isostatic adjustments, leading to variations in the bottom topography and the oceanic boundaries. This process was particularly intense during the last deglaciation due to the high rates of ice-sheet melting. It is, therefore, necessary to...
Article
Full-text available
To enhance the understanding of our Earth system numerical experiments are performed contrasting a retrograde and prograde rotating Earth using the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. The experiments show that the sense of rotation has relatively little impact on the globally and zonally averaged energy budgets, but leads to large shifts in co...
Article
Full-text available
Climate change impact studies for the Northwest European Shelf (NWES) make use of various dynamical downscaling strategies in the experimental setup of regional ocean circulation models. Projected change signals from coupled and uncoupled downscalings with different domain sizes and forcing global and regional models show substantial uncertainty. I...
Article
Full-text available
The continually evolving large ice sheets present in the Northern Hemisphere during the last glacial cycle caused significant changes to river pathways both through directly blocking rivers and through glacial isostatic adjustment. Studies have shown these river pathway changes had a significant impact on the ocean circulation through changing the...
Article
Full-text available
Heinrich events are among the dominant modes of glacial climate variability. During these events, massive iceberg armadas were released by the Laurentide Ice Sheet, sailed across the Atlantic, and caused large-scale climate changes. We study these events in a fully coupled complex ice sheet–climate model with synchronous coupling between ice sheets...
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Full-text available
This study examines the multi-decadal to centennial variability of benthic ecosystems, depositional environments and biogeochemical processes in the Gulf of Taranto (Italy) over the last millennium. Our study is based on sediment cores from two sites in the eastern Gulf of Taranto (Mediterranean Sea), and benthic foraminifera data of 43 surface sed...
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 years ago) is one of the suite of paleoclimate simulations included in the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It is an interval when insolation was similar to the present, but global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level was at or close to a minimum, greenhouse gas con...
Article
Full-text available
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) is one of the suite of paleoclimate simulations included in the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It is an interval when insolation was similar to present, but global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level was at or close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concent...
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Full-text available
We use a regionally coupled ocean-sea ice-atmosphere-hydrological discharge model to investigate the influence of changes in the atmospheric large-scale circulation on the interannual variability of the Arctic freshwater (FW) components. This model includes all sinks and sources of FW and allows for the analysis of a closed FW cycle in the Arctic....
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We make a review on the modelling efforts devoted to better understand the complex oceanography of the Strait of Gibraltar, where Atlantic waters enter the Mediterranean Sea as a surface flow, and Mediterranean outflowing waters spread into the interior of the North Atlantic forming a prominent basin-scale termohaline anomaly at mid-depths. Besides...
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Simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) are used to study the sensitivity of the AMOC and the deep-ocean water masses during the Last Glacial Maximum to different sets of forcings. Analysing the individual contributions of the glacial forcings reveals that the ice sheets cause an increase in the overturning strength a...
Article
Full-text available
Simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) are used to study the sensitivity of the AMOC and the deep ocean water masses during the Last Glacial Maximum to different sets of forcings. Analysing the individual contributions of the glacial forcings reveals that the ice sheets cause an increase of the overturning strength a...
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Background The present study reports results from the large-scale integrated EU project “Climate for Culture”. The full name, or title, of the project is Climate for Culture: damage risk assessment, economic impact and mitigation strategies for sustainable preservation of cultural heritage in times of climate change. This paper focusses on implemen...
Chapter
This study aims to understand the dust deposition changes on the Antarctic ice sheet in different climatic stages. To this end, high-resolution dust concentration and size profiles from the EPICA-DML ice core over the transition from the last glacial to the Holocene (T1) were combined with model experiments for four interglacial time slices and the...
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Recurrent deposition of organic-rich sediment layers (sapropels) in the eastern Mediterranean Sea is caused by complex interactions between climatic and biogeochemical processes. Disentangling these influences is therefore important for Mediterranean palaeo-studies in particular, and for understanding ocean feedback processes in general. Crucially,...
Article
Recent observations indicate a high sensitivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) to climate change. We examine the coupling between the GrIS surface mass balance, elevation, and dynamical flow with one of the few coupled GrIS and atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Bidirectional coupling from the early Holocene reveals a growing present-d...
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The general circulation models used to simulate global climate typically feature resolution too coarse to reproduce many smaller-scale processes, which are crucial to determining the regional responses to climate change. A novel approach to downscale climate change scenarios is presented which includes the interactions between the North Atlantic Oc...
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Full-text available
The general circulation models used to simulate global climate typically feature resolution too coarse to reproduce many smaller scale processes, which are crucial to determining the regional responses to climate change. A novel approach to downscale climate change scenarios is presented which includes the interactions between the North Atlantic Oc...
Article
Large uncertainties exist concerning the impact of Greenland ice sheet melting on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in the future, partly due to different sensitivity of the AMOC to freshwater input in the North Atlantic among climate models. Here we analyse five projections from different coupled ocean-atmosphere models with a...
Article
Earth System Models (ESMs) generally suffer from a poor simulation of the High-Latitude Southern Ocean (HLSO). Here we aim at a better understanding of the shortcomings by investigating the sensitivity of the HLSO to the external freshwater flux and the horizontal resolution in forced and coupled simulations with the Max-Planck-Institute Ocean Mode...
Chapter
To understand the processes leading to the formation of Holocene sapropel S1 in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, we integrated results from regional ocean-biogeochemical general circulation model experiments with biogeochemical and micropaleontological proxy records. Sapropel S1 formed during the Holocene insolation maximum, when strong Aegean north...
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A B S T R A C T Assessment of marine downscaling of global model simulations to the regional scale is a prerequisite for understanding ocean feedback to the atmosphere in regional climate downscaling. Major difficulties arise from the coarse grid resolution of global models, which cannot provide sufficiently accurate boundary values for the regiona...
Article
Full-text available
Large uncertainties exist concerning the impact of Greenland ice sheet melting on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in the future, partly due to different sensitivity of the AMOC to freshwater input in the North Atlantic among climate models. Here we analyse five projections from different coupled ocean–atmosphere models with a...