January 2024
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2 Reads
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January 2024
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2 Reads
September 2023
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4 Reads
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2 Citations
September 2023
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51 Reads
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2 Citations
World Bank Working Paper
Capabilities to track fast-moving economic developments remain limited in many regions of the developing world. This complicates prioritizing policies aimed at supporting vulnerable populations. To gain insight into the evolution of fluid events in a data scarce context, this paper explores the ability of recent machine-learning advances to produce continuous data in near-real-time by imputing multiple entries in ongoing surveys. The paper attempts to track inflation in fresh produce prices at the local market level in Papua New Guinea, relying only on incomplete and intermittent survey data. This application is made challenging by high intra-month price volatility, low cross-market price correlations, and weak price trends. The modeling approach uses chained equations to produce an ensemble prediction for multiple price quotes simultaneously. The paper runs cross-validation of the prediction strategy under different designs in terms of markets, foods, and time periods covered. The results show that when the survey is well-designed, imputations can achieve accuracy that is attractive when compared to costly-and logistically often infeasible-direct measurement. The methods have wider applicability and could help to fill crucial data gaps in data scarce regions such as the Pacific Islands, especially in conjunction with specifically designed continuous surveys.
September 2023
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37 Reads
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3 Citations
Journal of Development Economics
January 2023
January 2023
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69 Reads
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13 Citations
Vaccine
Background: Vaccination refusal exacerbates global COVID-19 vaccination inequities. No studies in East Africa have examined temporal trends in vaccination refusal, precluding addressing refusal. We assessed vaccine refusal over time in Kenya, and characterized factors associated with changes in vaccination refusal. Methods: We analyzed data from the Kenya Rapid Response Phone Survey (RRPS), a household cohort survey representative of the Kenyan population including refugees. Vaccination refusal (defined as the respondent stating they would not receive the vaccine if offered to them at no cost) was measured in February and October 2021. Proportions of vaccination refusal were plotted over time. We analyzed factors in vaccination refusal using a weighted multivariable logistic regression including interactions for time. Findings: Among 11,569 households, vaccination refusal in Kenya decreased from 24 % in February 2021 to 9 % in October 2021. Vaccination refusal was associated with having education beyond the primary level (-4.1[-0.7,-8.9] percentage point difference (ppd)); living with somebody who had symptoms of COVID-19 in the past 14 days (-13.72[-8.9,-18.6]ppd); having symptoms of COVID-19 in the past 14 days (11.0[5.1,16.9]ppd); and distrusting the government in responding to COVID-19 (14.7[7.1,22.4]ppd). There were significant interactions with time and: refugee status and geography, living with somebody with symptoms of COVID-19, having symptoms of COVID-19, and believing in misinformation. Interpretation: The temporal reduction in vaccination refusal in Kenya likely represents substantial strides by the Kenyan vaccination program and possible learnt lessons which require examination. Going forward, there are still several groups which need specific targeting to decrease vaccination refusal and improve vaccination equity, including those with lower levels of education, those with recent COVID-19 symptoms, those who do not practice personal COVID-19 mitigation measures, refugees in urban settings, and those who do not trust the government. Policy and program should focus on decreasing vaccination refusal in these populations, and research focus on understanding barriers and motivators for vaccination.
April 2022
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5 Reads
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1 Citation
March 2022
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2 Reads
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8 Citations
March 2022
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2 Reads
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4 Citations
March 2022
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3 Reads
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3 Citations
... For example, phone surveys conducted with approximately 13 000 Kenyan households revealed a sharp decline in access to education, with only 31% of children being engaged in learning activities in April 2021 compared to approximately 80% prior to the pandemic. 5 Although access to medicine is slowly increasing and food shortages are decreasing, households reported skipping at least one meal approximately three days per week. 6 The loss of income and malnourishment experienced by Kenyans in response to COVID-19 is likely to have a long-term impact. ...
July 2021
... While AI applications for complex analysis are not new, the embedding of modern analytical models and real-time coupling with multi-channel data or information pipelines has unlocked advanced capabilities of AI algorithms. One of such revolutionary capability is the monthly imputation of price data, which was developed for 25 countries (Andrée, 2021a;Andrée & Pape, 2023) and is now deployed by the World Bank to cover over 2,100 markets across 36 countries and monitor food prices, energy prices, and unofficial parallel market exchange rates. 1 The Real-Time-Prices (RTP) dataset is created through a resource-intensive Markov Chain Monte Carlo framework involving hundreds of thousands of models to address missing data points in underlying surveys gathered from country systems, the World Food Programme and the Food and Agriculture Organization. To ensure the rapid processing required for maintaining up-to-date outputs as new data arrives, the algorithm employs a swift tree-based approach known as Cubist. ...
September 2023
... Empirical evidence on the scale and the nature of the impacts of the pandemic and its countermeasures, while growing, is quite limited, partly due to the lack of suitable, comparable, and timely micro-level data (Delius et al., 2020;Gourlay et al., 2021). This lack of data also stems from the way COVID-19 is transmitted person-to-person, which inhibits face-to-face survey data collection. ...
August 2020
... Parents, caregivers, and children were particularly affected [4], as the pandemic disrupted daily routines and led to a home-centred situation [5]. With schools and daycare centres closed or operating at limited capacity, parents had to juggle their jobs and their children's education and care [6,7]. While studies underscored quality family time during lockdowns, increased stress and exhaustion [8] as well as negative impact on the mental health of caregivers has also been reported [9,10]. ...
March 2022
... Conversely, girls tend to lean more toward seeking social support as a coping mechanism (Adasi et al., 2020;Sanchez-Céspedes et al., 2022). Another perspective on this is that boys are more inclined to employ problem-centered coping strategies, which focus on directly addressing the issue causing distress, while girls are more likely to opt for emotion-centered coping strategies, concentrating on regulating their emotional responses to the challenges they encounter (Lee & Mason, 2014;Senad, 2022;Xu et al., 2022). ...
March 2022
... of the world engage in small-scale entrepreneurship to adapt to limited employment opportunities and to make use of their existing skills and resources. This trend is observed among refugees in Kenya, where economic disruptions have prompted a shift from traditional employment to self-employment as a survival strategy during the COVID-19 pandemic (Vintar et. al, 2022). ...
March 2022
... Further, the integration of immunization with other health programs such as nutrition and health education were shown to be an effective strategy for improving vaccine access and uptake [27,31,36,41,48]. Also, clear vaccination policies and guidelines, and residence of the populations was identified to influence vaccine coverage as refugees and IDPs in camps were more likely to be vaccinated than those in host communities, in three studies [31,53,54]. Other factors that were least frequently reported include previous positive vaccination experiences of refugees and IDPs, individuals' education beyond primary level, and effective logistics strategy such as cross-docking, where vaccines are directly transferred to the target population to ensure vaccine availability and avoid storage constraints. ...
January 2023
Vaccine
... Empirical evidence tends to disprove those concerns as minimal or overstated (Baird et al 2018;Handa et al 2018;Bastagli et al 2016;Ravallion 2016). Yet, skepticism should not be easily dismissed, and the risks of serious policy debates being infused with an excessive dose of advocacy, as opposed to a balanced interpretation of the evidence, are real and may detract from a genuine understanding of the pros and cons of cash (Baird et al 2022;Della Guardia et al 2022;Palacios, Crombrugghe, & Gassmann, 2022). This paper does not espouse cash transfers as an instrument for which global knowledge is conclusive and unilaterally positive; rather, while generally supportive and encouraging, factors like worldviews, information gaps, trade-offs and alternative interventions provide cautionary arguments to maintain an objective, open-minded and facts-based approach. ...
January 2022
SSRN Electronic Journal
... A lack of trust in political actors, both local and foreign, is another factor associated with vaccine hesitancy in SSA. A study analyzing data from the Kenya Rapid Response Phone Survey (RRPS) measured vaccine refusal and the associated factors, noting that distrust in the government's response to COVID-19 was a determiner [78]. Due to the political nature of the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, the mandatory administration in some countries as well as the lack of trust in the pharmaceutical industry also influence vaccine acceptance, with some individuals even holding religious beliefs regarding the jab as a representation of the "mark of the beast" [79]. ...
January 2022
SSRN Electronic Journal
... Additionally, insights were drawn from the Kenya COVID-19 Rapid Response Phone Surveys (RRPS), [9] conducted between 2020 and 2022, which included the Shona as a distinct stratum. The RRPS monitored the impact of the pandemic on vulnerable groups, capturing critical data on employment disruptions, income losses, and food insecurity during the crisis. ...
October 2021