Tomasz Łyziak's research while affiliated with Narodowy Bank Polski and other places

... See Appendix A for a comparison of the expectations analysed in this study and others of common use. 5 See, for instance, the linkages between demographic characteristics and inflation expectations in Bryan and Venkatu (2001a,b), Souleles (2004), Pfajfar and Santoro (2008), Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2015), Madeira and Zafar (2015), Ehrmann et al. (2017), Armantier et al. (2017), Axelrod et al. (2018), and Łyziak and Sheng (2018) for the case of the United States, Lindén (2005) and Drakos et al. (2020) for a group of European countries, Campelo et al. (2019) for the case of Brazil, Gosselin and Khan (2015) for Canada, Sabrowski (2008) for Germany, Goyal and Parab (2019a) for India, Malgarini (2009) and Easaw et al. (2013) for Italy, Ichiue and Nishiguchi (2015) and Diamond et al. (2020) for Japan, Rossouw et al. (2011) for South Africa, and Jonung (1981) and Palmqvist and Strömberg (2004) for Sweden. ...

... In Lyziak's (2003) Studies on rational expectations take a large part in the literature. However, only studies examining whether inflation expectations are rational are included in this section. ...

... Our focus in this chapter will be on probabilistic questions, but questions also asked for point forecasts or most likely outcomes. We will touch on some important limitations of point forecasts below, but acknowledge that they have been found valuable, especially in aggregated form, in capturing changes in household expectations (e.g., Stanislawska et al., 2019). ...

... In the decade prior to the pandemic, inflation across advanced economies consistently surprised economists on the downside. Euro area in particular struggled with low inflation to the extent that inflation expectations have become less well anchored to the ECB's inflation aim, adding to existing disinflationary pressures (Baumann et al. (2021)). Inflation continued to surprise during the pandemic starting in 2020. ...

... Lyziak and Paloviita pay close attention to European inflation expectations in particular. The findings show that changing short-and long-term inflation expectations depends on how central banks react to inflation, which is something that European governments and central banks are working very hard to achieve [8]. If the central bank reacts negatively to inflation, people may predict higher inflation rates in the future, which may cause them to become more pessimistic about the future. ...

... tion expectations are produced by the University of Michigan and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, who publish the Survey of Consumers and the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), respectively. Work done by authors such as Łyziak and Sheng (2018) documents that the Michigan and SPF forecasts of inflation are substantially different, and that possible determinants of expected inflation affect these survey measures differently. ...

... It is worth noting that inflation expectations are at the core of modern macroeconomic theory and are an important determinant of economic fluctuations including stock prices. Therefore, managing expectations is crucial in modern monetary policy (Baranowski et al., 2021). The New Keynesian models (for example, refer to a recent paper of Sims et al., 2021) are widely used in central banking. ...

... The aim of the paper is to fill in the gap in existing research by estimating panel models that also include the global output gap and to compare the results of different methods. To our best knowledge, only five papers consider global output gaps in their models (Çiçek, 2012;Bianchi & Civelli, 2015;Łyziak, 2019;Jašová et al., 2020;Busetti et al., 2021) and other authors consider only domestic output gaps Kendera, 2015). This paper includes three objectives. ...

... Denmark and Croatia could not be included in the analysis due to the lack of data. 61 Summary statistics for the dataset are given in Table A (Dolenc and Stubejl, 2010;Berrittella and Zhang, 2015;Lee et al., 2018;Mackiewicz-Łyziak and Łyziak, 2019;Ramos-Herrera and Prats, 2020). In line with these studies, in the first stage, we examine fiscal sustainability for the panel of 26 EU states. ...

... In particular, studies indicate that trends in actual inflation and ECB's announced inflation objective influence the longer-term inflationary expectations of the professional forecasters operating in the euro area, while their short-and medium-term inflationary forecasts are consistent with the Eurosystem's projections (ECB, 2021b). This consistency may signal either that private experts recognise the central bank's superiority in making predictions, or that the latter convey relevant information about central bank's preferences and future strategies, or that central bank's experts have the same information as private forecasters and process it in a similar manner (see Hubert, 2015;Łyziak and Paloviita, 2018). ...