Todd E. Katzner’s research while affiliated with Geological Survey of Japan and other places

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Publications (93)


Map of Tasmania showing the power line distribution network and the locations where 23 pre‐adult GPS‐tracked Tasmanian wedge‐tailed eagles crossed the power lines at low altitude between 2017 and 2023. Tagged eagles were not randomly selected nor evenly distributed across the island, which is why there are few crossings in the north‐central part of the state. The locations where eagles were confirmed to have collided during flights between 2001 and 2022 are also shown.
Modelled risk value for pre‐adult Tasmanian wedge‐tailed eagles crossing power lines at low altitude (relative probability of low‐altitude power line crossings is higher for higher risk values).
Cross‐validated performance for the model predicting where pre‐adult Tasmanian wedge‐tailed eagles fly across power lines at low altitude. (a) Observed proportion of low‐altitude power line crossing by pre‐adult Tasmanian wedge‐tailed eagles for each of 10 ordinal equal‐area model bins (modelled crossing probability increases with higher bin value). The observed proportion is the proportion (mean ± SD) of withheld low‐altitude crossing locations from each k‐fold cross‐validation run (n = 5) that fell within each bin. (b) The proportion of Tasmanian wedge‐tailed eagle collisions that were correctly predicted for each risk value estimated from the predictive model (relative probability of low‐altitude power line crossings is higher for higher risk values). A null model is also presented (dashed line), where the number of incidents within each risk value is equal to the proportion of power line area assigned each risk value. Dotted lines indicate the median incident risk value. Good model performance is shown by the proportion of incidents predicted being consistently higher for the crossing model than the null model.
Fine‐scale spatial risk models to predict avian collisions with power lines
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June 2025

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9 Reads

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Clare E. Hawkins

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Todd E. Katzner

Avian fatalities caused by collisions with overhead power lines are an important conservation issue worldwide. Although mitigation strategies can help reduce mortalities, given their considerable cost and the vast scale of power line infrastructure, cost‐effective action requires that these efforts be prioritised to areas with the highest potential risk to birds. To date, this risk assessment has usually been guided by potentially biased information on the location of recorded fatalities. Here we use 6 years of GPS‐tracking data from endangered Tasmanian wedge‐tailed eagles to develop an alternative approach to risk assessment: fine‐scale spatial risk models based on behavioural analyses. We built and cross‐validated a model that generates spatially explicit predictions of the probability that eagles would cross power lines at hazardous altitudes throughout the entire Tasmanian electricity distribution network. In our model, the probability of power line crossings was most strongly associated with the proportion of open habitat, forest edges, rural residential developments, wet forest and freshwater sources in the area surrounding the power lines. Cross‐validation indicated that the model effectively predicted where Tasmanian wedge‐tailed eagles cross power lines at low altitude. Model validation suggested our approach was a powerful predictor of the locations of power line collisions involving eagles. The locations of almost all (94%) confirmed eagle fatalities were in the half of the total Tasmanian power line area assigned the higher risk by the model, and 50% of incidents occurred in the 20% of the power line area estimated to be highest risk. Synthesis and applications. Our study illustrates a framework for using bird movement data to provide insights into avian behaviour and the risk they encounter around power line infrastructure. Electricity delivery industries can use these models to identify the electrical infrastructure that poses the highest risk to avian survival and prioritise mitigation efforts, thereby optimising the benefit of investments to reduce detrimental effects on biodiversity. Our model can inform pre‐emptive mitigation across Tasmania's 20,310 km of distribution infrastructure to meet management targets aiming to reduce the negative effects of power lines on the Tasmanian wedge‐tailed eagle.

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Katzner et al Safety and Immunogenicity of poultry HPAI vaccine in endangered species

June 2025

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49 Reads

Emerging Infectious Diseases

In 2023, an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza occurred among critically endangered California condors (Gymnogyps californianus), and >21 died. We evaluated safety, immunogenicity, vaccination strategies, and correlates of antibody response of an influenza vaccine for poultry in black vultures (Coragyps atratus) and then California condors. We noted differences in antibody titers between vaccinated and unvaccinated birds (vultures p<0.004; condors p<0.02) but no adverse effects of vaccination. All vaccinated vultures and 80% of vaccinated condors showed maximum measured antibody response within the published range associated with survival of vaccinated and virally challenged chickens. We noted weak evidence of higher antibody responses for birds given two 0.5-mL vaccines versus those given one 1-mL vaccine but no correlation between antibody titers and sex for either species or between antibody titers and bone lead concentrations in vultures. Our results prompted initiation of a vaccination program for condors that could reduce spread of this disease among highly threatened species




Safety and Immunogenicity of Poultry Vaccine for Protecting Critically Endangered Avian Species against Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus, United States

April 2025

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6 Reads

Emerging Infectious Diseases

In 2023, an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza occurred among critically endangered California condors (Gymnogyps californianus), and >21 died. We evaluated safety, immunogenicity, vaccination strategies, and correlates of antibody response of an influenza vaccine for poultry in black vultures (Coragyps atratus) and then California condors. We noted differences in antibody titers between vaccinated and unvaccinated birds (vultures p<0.004; condors p-<0.02) but no adverse effects of vaccination. All vaccinated vultures and 80% of vaccinated condors showed maximum measured antibody response within the published range associated with survival of vaccinated and virally challenged chickens. We noted weak evidence of higher antibody responses for birds given two 0.5-mL vaccines versus those given one 1-mL vaccine but no correlation between antibody titers and sex for either species or between antibody titers and bone lead concentrations in vultures. Our results prompted initiation of a vaccination program for condors that could reduce spread of this disease among highly threatened species.


Evolutionarily distinct lineages of a migratory bird of prey show divergent responses to climate change

April 2025

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1,035 Reads

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2 Citations

Accurately predicting species’ responses to anthropogenic climate change is hampered by limited knowledge of their spatiotemporal ecological and evolutionary dynamics. We combine landscape genomics, demographic reconstructions, and species distribution models to assess the eco-evolutionary responses to past climate fluctuations and to future climate of an Afro-Palaearctic migratory raptor, the lesser kestrel (Falco naumanni). We uncover two evolutionarily and ecologically distinct lineages (European and Asian), whose demographic history, evolutionary divergence, and historical distribution range were profoundly shaped by past climatic fluctuations. Using future climate projections, we find that the Asian lineage is at higher risk of range contraction, increased migration distance, climate maladaptation, and consequently greater extinction risk than the European lineage. Our results emphasise the importance of providing historical context as a baseline for understanding species’ responses to contemporary climate change, and illustrate how incorporating intraspecific genetic variation improves the ecological realism of climate change vulnerability assessments.


Prairie Falcon ( Falco mexicanus ) Abundance in a National Conservation Area in Idaho Has Increased since the 1970s–1990s

January 2025

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12 Reads

Journal of Raptor Research

The Morley Nelson Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area (NCA), in southwestern Idaho, USA supports a large population of breeding Prairie Falcons (Falco mexicanus). Abundance of Prairie Falcons in the NCA was previously monitored in 1976–1978 and 1990–1994. That research indicated maximum counts for each period in 1976 and 1992 and a possible population decline across that time span. We assessed the abundance and nesting success of Prairie Falcons in the NCA in 2002–2003 and 2019–2021, and we compared results to data from before 2000 to assess possible population change. Number of nesting pairs increased over 45 years from peak counts of 206, 193, and 217 in the 1970s, 1990s, and early 2000s, respectively, to 257 in 2021. Increases were not concentrated in one region, but widely distributed across the study area. Rates of nesting success in 2002–2003 and 2019–2021 averaged 57 ± 11.8% (SD) at 49.8 ± 3.3 nests observed each year and did not differ from pre-2000 rates. Finally, our analysis showed that in all 10 years in which a full census was conducted, a sampling approach to surveys would have been effective at estimating the number of falcons nesting within the NCA. Prairie Falcons are of conservation concern because of possible population declines in parts of their range. These results illustrate an area with apparently increasing numbers of this important species and highlight the importance of long-term surveys for tracking population fluctuations and the value of a national conservation area for providing raptor breeding habitat.


Figure 4.1. Map depicting the world's biopolitical raptor conservation realms and regions. Color hues depict realms while saturations (i.e. shades) depict regions within realms. Realms thus include North America (yellow), Eurasia and North Africa (reds), South and Southeast Asia (purples), Pacific Islands (greys), Sub-Saharan Africa (blues), and Latin America and Caribbean (greens).
Figure 4.2. Calculation of evolutionary distinct and globally endangered (EDGE) scores : (a) a hypothetical phylogenetic tree for four species (A-D) (numbers beside branches are branch lengths in millions of years [MY]); (b) evolutionary distinctiveness under the for species A when the probability of extinction (global endangerment [GE]) of species B is 0.5 and GE of species C and D is 0 as determined by summing the black branches; where branch length is multiplied by the GE of all descendant species excluding species A. We set GE = 0 for species C and D in this example for simplicity. In reality, all species have some non-zero chance of extinction within the next 50 years. This figure is modeled after Figure 1 of McClure et al. (2023).
Determining global and regional raptor conservation priorities.

January 2025

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81 Reads

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1 Citation

Many of the world’s raptors, or birds of prey, are experiencing declines and are increasingly threatened with extinction. The State of the World’s Raptors provides a novel approach for setting priorities for the conservation of raptors across the globe. Biologists from The Peregrine Fund, the US Geological Survey, and the Zoological Society of London divided the world into 14 raptor conservation regions. They then determined priorities for raptor conservation based on the evolutionary distinctiveness and extinction risk of the species that occur in each region. Priorities for each raptor conservation region were documented in separate chapters, each of which was led by local raptor experts. The State of the World’s Raptors thus provides regional perspectives on global priorities to save raptors from extinction.



Measurements needed to estimate the displacement of the centre of mass (COM) resulting from the affixation of a biologging device to a flying bird or bat. Shown is the COM, distance from a reference location (here, the back of the eye) to the natural COM (Xa; an ‘animal length metric’ in Figure 2), distance from the reference location to the spot on the animal at which occurs the COM of the biologging device (the grey box; Xb), and the distance between the leading and trailing edges of the wing (Xw). Although the schematic is of a bird, measurements would be identical for a bat.
Modelled impact of size and placement of a biologging device (‘tag’) on the centre of mass (COM) of a bird or bat. The plot shows the relationship between the displacement of a device from the animal's COM (on the x‐axis) versus device mass (on the y‐axis). On the x‐axis, a measurement of 100% indicates that the biologging device is exactly at COM. Displacement of COM is measured as the difference between two distances from a reference location, one to the COM of the biologging device (Xb) and one to the COM of the animal (Xa; for simplicity, Xa is referred to as an ‘animal length metric’ in the figure below). The mass of the biologging device (Mb) is shown as a of the mass of the animal (Ma). Black dashed (3%) and dash‐dotted (5%) lines represent body mass and represent two body mass thresholds commonly used as the maximum allowable weight of biologging devices. White lines show the thresholds above which impacts are expected to be destabilizing (dotted—2%) and catastrophic (solid—3%) for flight control and stability.
Impact of differential placement of a biologging device (‘tag’) on the centre of mass and flight control and stability of seven species, six birds and one bat ((a) white‐crowed sparrow Zonotrichia leucophrys; (b) hoary bat Lasiurus cinereous; (c) Virginia rail Rallus limicola; (d) common raven Corvus corax; (e) red‐tailed hawk Buteo jamaicensis; (f) bald eagle Haliaeetus leucocephalus; (g, h) great blue heron Ardea herodias). For one species, the great blue heron, we plot the impact for the bird when flying with the (g) neck extended (typical at take‐off) and (h) with the neck bent (typical during level flight). Dashed and dotted lines show thresholds above which impacts are expected to be destabilizing (2%) and catastrophic (3%) for flight control and stability. Calculations underpinning these figures are shown in Supporting Information.
A heuristic method to evaluate consequences for flight control and stability induced by attachment of biologging devices to birds and bats

August 2024

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34 Reads

Biologging is central to the study of wildlife, but questions remain about the minimization of effects of biologging devices. Rarely considered are changes biologging devices induce on an animal's centre of mass (COM) and resulting losses of flight control and stability. We applied established aeronautical principles to estimate how the COM of a flying bird or bat may be affected by the typical positioning of a biologging device on the neck, back, hips or tail. We then adopted modified thresholds from aerospace engineering to estimate limits beyond which changes to COM result in fitness‐relevant alterations to flight control and stability. Generic models illustrate a trade‐off between the placement and mass of a biologging device that influences flight control and stability. Seven species‐specific examples show the substantial differences in consequences of changes to COM for animals of different sizes and body types. Placement of a device on the tail always resulted in the greatest shift in COM and placement in the centre of the back resulted in the smallest shift. The 5% weight threshold some use for a biologging device provides little room for error in terms of stability and can easily cause dangerous changes to COM. The 3% weight threshold others use causes considerably smaller changes in the COM, but when placed away from the natural COM, still can affect flight control and stability. Researchers interested in minimizing the effects to fitness of wildlife should consider weight, balance and COM when affixing biologging devices. The farther a device is from the natural COM, the smaller it should be relative to the mass of the animal.


Citations (74)


... Specifically, Maxent has the advantages of accurately estimating the probability distribution of species occurrences by integrating different environmental factors with relatively few presence-only occurrence data [23][24][25] . Up to now, its effectiveness has been successfully demonstrated in numerous studies [26][27][28][29][30] . For instance, a recent study adopted Maxent modeling to map the potential risk areas for Nipah virus, and found that the suitable niches for Nipah virus are more extensive than previously reported 25 . ...

Reference:

Current and future distributions of main dermatitis-causing insects and risks of dermatitis across China
Evolutionarily distinct lineages of a migratory bird of prey show divergent responses to climate change

... The classic example is the decline of several raptor species due to eggshell thinning caused by DDT (dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane) and its metabolites (Ratcliffe 1970, Cade et al. 1971, which led to a ban on the substance in 1972 within the United States (Cade and Burnham 2003) including similar bans in other countries around the globe. The cause of death of many raptors has also been linked to lead poisoning after feeding upon the remains of animals that contain spent lead ammunition (Watson et al. 2009, Katzner et al. 2024). This poisoning limits raptor populations (Finkelstein et al. 2012, Green et al. 2022, Slabe et al. 2022) and highlights problems for human health (Gomez-Ramirez et al. 2014). ...

Lead poisoning of raptors: state of the science and cross-discipline mitigation options for a global problem

Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society

... Consideration of context dependence in assessments of habitat selection can reveal important resources for wildlife that otherwise may be overlooked and disregarded (Northrup et al. 2022). Typically, habitat studies and conservation management for breeding birds focus on nest sites but can neglect additional habitats that are critical for fitness (Wallace et al. 2024). We evaluated time-dependent habitat selection specifically for adult male S. nebulosa during the breeding season to demonstrate the importance of understanding key resources across multiple contexts for avian species. ...

Predicting the spatial distribution of wintering golden eagles to inform full annual cycle conservation in western North America

... The use of wind energy is an important sector of renewable energy generation with global growth rates between 2 and 10 % (Global Wind Energy Council, 2023). Wind energy production is expected to contribute to the reduction of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, but wind energy production can also have detrimental effects on habitats (e.g., Baidya Roy and Traiteur, 2010;Zhou et al., 2012;Diffendorfer et al., 2022) and wildlife such as birds and bats (e.g., Voigt et al., 2012;Pylant et al., 2016;Thaxter et al., 2017;Thaker et al., 2018;Frick et al., 2017;Conkling et al., 2022;Scholz et al., 2023;Voigt et al., 2024;Vander Zanden et al., 2024). To minimise these negative effects, it is important to use optimal siting strategies when constructing wind turbines (Balotari-Chiebao et al., 2023;Feng et al., 2023), for example by maintaining threshold distances from important habitats for nesting and wintering birds (Leddy et al., 1999;Stevens et al., 2013) or daytime roosts for bats (Reusch et al., 2022(Reusch et al., , 2023Voigt et al., 2024). ...

The geographic extent of bird populations affected by renewable-energy development
  • Citing Article
  • January 2024

... The Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) forecasts that the global installed wind power capacity will reach 2 TW before 2030, with onshore wind installations accounting for over 80% of the total capacity. 2 The global desert and Gobi regions contain abundant onshore wind energy resources, which have been developed by various countries to accelerate the energy transition. 3 Specifically, the installed wind power in the desert regions of North America, South America, and Australia account for 4.8%, 4 18%, 5 and 7.1% 6 of the total installed capacity, respectively. Africa's desert regions are mainly located in Libya and Egypt, where 7600 km 2 of wind farms were constructed in 2022. ...

Numbers of wildlife fatalities at renewable energy facilities in a targeted development region

... ega) bats. As previously mentioned, hoary, eastern red, and silverhaired bats comprise the majority of reported fatalities at utility-scale wind energy facilities (American Wind Wildlife Institute (AWWI) (AWWI), 2020; Lloyd et al., 2023), though it is important to again note that a reporting bias exists Lloyd et al., 2023), and that species such as Brazilian free-tailed, evening, and northern yellow bats can suffer regionally high mortality rates (American Wind Wildlife Institute (AWWI) (AWWI), 2020; Weaver et al., 2020b;LiCari et al., 2023;Lloyd et al., 2023). Finally, as wind energy production expands in the southwestern U.S., tree-roosting species like the northern yellow and southern yellow bat and the migratory Brazilian free-tailed bat are expected to experience increased fatalities (Chipps et al., 2020b;Weaver et al., 2020b;Huang et al., 2024). ...

Understanding fatality patterns and sex ratios of Brazilian free-tailed bats ( Tadarida brasiliensis ) at wind energy facilities in western California and Texas

... A recent examination of nearly 12,000 current and historic eagle sightings in eastern United States, from Minnesota eastward, suggests that migrant Golden Eagles from Canada are more common and more widely distributed than previously thought. 87 Eagles had been observed in all of the 31 States, and even within states in 61 per cent of 2,045 counties. The counties visited by eagles tended to be more rugged and contained more forest on average. ...

Winter Distribution of Golden Eagles in the Eastern USA

Journal of Raptor Research

... In conclusion, mitigation through turbine shutdown/curtailment [28,29,31,33,34,82,83] or increasing turning blades' visibility [12] can be effective for species, populations, individuals, or circumstances involving birds with no or limited wariness of turbines by reducing the primary impact of collision fatality. This effectiveness may not be universal, even in study systems where a collision is expected ( [33,39,40], although see [35]). Regardless, however, as in our study system and others, such measures are not going to have much influence or provide mitigation for birds where the primary expected impact is functional habitat loss through avoidance (e.g., [27,61]). ...

Reanalysis ignores pertinent data, includes inappropriate observations, and disregards realities of applied ecology: Response to Huso and Dalthorp (2023)

... The efficiency of bird protection at wind farms is no longer an issue, and state-of-the-art solutions such as Bioseco Bird Protection Systems (BPS) [2] or IdentiFlight [3] have already been tested against challenging requirements determined by a recognised environmental consultancy agency such as the Kompetenzzentrum Naturschutz und Energiewende (KNE) in Germany [4] or the MAPE project in France [5]. ...

Variation in flight characteristics associated with entry by eagles into rotor‐swept zones of wind turbines
  • Citing Article
  • August 2023

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