January 2025
SSRN Electronic Journal
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January 2025
SSRN Electronic Journal
April 2023
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13 Reads
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10 Citations
Review of Economic Studies
With “2020 hindsight,” the 2000s housing cycle is not a boom-bust but a boom-bustrebound. Using a spatial equilibrium regression in which house prices are determined by income, amenities, urbanization, and supply, we show that long-run city-level fundamentals predict not only 1997-2019 price and rent growth but also the amplitude of the boom-bust-rebound. This evidence motivates our model of a cycle rooted in fundamentals. Households learn about fundamentals by observing “dividends” but become over-optimistic in the boom due to diagnostic expectations. A bust ensues when beliefs start to correct, exacerbated by a price-foreclosure spiral that drives prices below their long-run level. The rebound follows as prices converge to a path commensurate with higher fundamental growth. The estimated model explains the boom-bust-rebound with a single shock and accounts quantitatively for the dynamics of prices, rents, and foreclosures in cities with the largest cycles. We draw implications for asset cycles more generally.
January 2023
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4 Citations
SSRN Electronic Journal
January 2023
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3 Reads
SSRN Electronic Journal
January 2023
SSRN Electronic Journal
January 2022
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12 Reads
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6 Citations
SSRN Electronic Journal
January 2022
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2 Reads
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68 Citations
SSRN Electronic Journal
January 2021
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7 Reads
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8 Citations
SSRN Electronic Journal
January 2021
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4 Reads
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1 Citation
SSRN Electronic Journal
October 2020
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39 Reads
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61 Citations
The Journal of Finance
We investigate how the deterioration of household balance sheets affects worker productivity, and in turn economic downturns. Specifically, we compare the output of innovative workers who experienced differential declines in housing wealth during the financial crisis but were employed at the same firm and lived in the same metropolitan area. We find that, following a negative wealth shock, innovative workers become less productive and generate lower economic value for their firms. The reduction in innovative output is not driven by workers switching to less innovative firms or positions. These effects are more pronounced among workers at greater risk of financial distress.
... Internally, employees and management, as direct beneficiaries of ESG practices, experience significant improvements in various benefits, such as enhanced employee benefits, opportunities for salary increases, and better working conditions [39]. These positive changes attract more skilled job seekers, significantly boost employee satisfaction and sense of belonging, and encourage greater proactivity in the company's operations, further enhancing competitiveness [40]. Additionally, by promoting environmental innovation, improving employee welfare, and enhancing governance efficiency, companies develop more competitive products and services [41] to meet customers' demands for "higher value" or "lower cost at the same value", thereby strengthening their competitive advantages. ...
January 2023
SSRN Electronic Journal
... This paper is closely related to the literature on the effects of urbanization. Existing research on the macro-economic effects of urbanization has confirmed that urbanization can facilitate industrial restructuring (Michaels et al. 2012), narrow the urban-rural income gap (Zhang et al. 2012), and generate "agglomeration effects" and "scale effects," which help expand consumer demand and promote economic growth (Acemoglu et al. 2002;Cheng and Liu 2023;Chodorow-Reich et al. 2024). Many studies have focused on the effect of urbanization on the environment, yet they have not reached very consistent conclusions. ...
April 2023
Review of Economic Studies
... 4 using an instrumental variables strategy has a value of 0.226, and is consistent with other values in the literature(Kerr and Lincoln, 2010; Khanna and Lee, 2018;Peri et al., 2015). However, the literature on immigration has found different results on the impact of immigrants on innovation.Bernstein et al. (2023) show that immigrants have a positive impact on innovation. Similarly, Kerr and Lincoln (2010),Hunt and Gauthier-Loiselle (2010) andPeri et al. (2015) find a positive effect of H-1B-like immigrants on patenting.Doran et al. (2022), on the other hand, finds the effect on patenting to be close to zero. To investigate how our conclusions ch ...
January 2022
SSRN Electronic Journal
... The instrumental functioning of institutional environments varies considerably across the wide range of societies at various stages of development (Webb, Khoury, and Hitt 2020). Thus, the institutional specifics of each country make it possible to understand why levels of entrepreneurship vary from one country to another (Bernstein et al. 2022;Dencker et al. 2021;Naudé 2010). Recognizing this wide variation, the concept of institutional voids (a lack or failure of existing institutions) helps to identify the levels of institutional support that promote development within a society. ...
January 2018
SSRN Electronic Journal
... We instead argue that the large increases in house prices over the pandemic reflect a fundamental increase in housing demand due to remote work. A related literature examines the role of fundamentals and bubbles in the evolution of house prices before the pandemic (see e.g., DeFusco, Nathanson, and Zwick, 2017;Kaplan, Mitman, and Violante, 2020;Chodorow-Reich, Guren, and McQuade, 2021, for recent contributions). ...
Reference:
Housing Demand and Remote Work
January 2021
SSRN Electronic Journal
... According to the statistics from the annual reports of listed companies in China, the proportion of listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges that distribute dividends increased from 50.21% in 2007 to 78.28% in 2017, and then dropped to 65.9% in 2022. The dividend payout ratio fluctuated from 20.74% in 2007 to 30.96% in 2017, and then dropped to 29.95% in 2022. The proportion of listed companies with exceptionally large dividends (the "Shenzhen Stock Exchange Listed Company Self-Discipline Supervision Guidelines No. 1-Standard Operation of Main Board Listed Companies (Revised in 2023)" issued by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange pointed out that special attention and enhanced disclosure are required when the cash dividend amount reaches or exceeds 100% of the current net profit attributable to the listed company) increased from 1.31% in 2007 to 3.33% in 2022. ...
October 2020
The Journal of Finance
... The section addresses some key concerns regarding the dataset: the inclusion of primary market transactions and distressed sales. Primary market transactions, dominated by real estate developers, may involve price-setting power (Leung et al., 2020a, b), while distressed sales during financial crises could distort market prices (Campbell et al., 2011;Guren and McQuade, 2020). ...
May 2020
Review of Economic Studies
... Results show that housing market stimulus is more effective during periods of slowing markets (Bhutta and Ringo, 2021). It turns out that monetary policy projects aimed at increasing mortgage payments during booms and reducing them during downturns work better than fixed-rate mortgages (Guren et al., 2021). ...
July 2020
The Journal of Finance