Timotej Jagric's research while affiliated with University of Maribor and other places

Publications (77)

Article
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Population health and wellbeing is both a result, as well as a driver, of economic development and prosperity on global, European, national and sub-national (local) levels. Wales, one of the four United Kingdom (UK) nations, has shown a long-term commitment to sustainable development and achieving prosperity for all, providing a good example of bot...
Article
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Governments around the world are looking for ways to manage economic consequences of COVID-19 and promote economic development. The aim of this study is to identify the areas where the application of economic policy measures would enhance the resilience of societies on epidemic risks. We use data on the COVID-19 pandemic outcome in a large number o...
Article
Purpose With high public debts and suffering economies after the COVID-19 pandemic, governments will look for ways to promote recovery. Literature substantially reports on the favorable macroeconomic impact of the healthcare sector. Design/methodology/approach The authors use data on 19 European countries. Over 30 variables are analyzed to find fa...
Article
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This paper aims to find a superior strategy for the daily trading on a portfolio of stocks for which traditional trading strategies perform poorly due to the low frequency of new information. The experimental work is divided into a set of traditional trading strategies and a set of long short-term memory networks. The networks incorporate general a...
Article
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Our novel game-theoretic Principal/Two-Agent model ensures that the Principal has a reliable internal signal about the Agents’ invested work and effort. Analysing the dominant strategies deductively proves that suboptimal results cannot be prevented with focus on evaluation, implying that quality of work, not its evaluation, must be considered as t...
Article
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A GRIT methodology (Generation of Regional Input-Output Tables) to generate and analyze regional input-output tables is applied for a small, middle-income nation, where the single national input-output table is partitioned into numerous regional tables. Missing values data are imputed using an evolutionary stochastic population-based nature-inspire...
Article
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In an audit of a firm’s financial statements, the auditor assesses whether there is material uncertainty about the firm’s ability to continue as a going concern. If the existence of material uncertainty is confirmed, the auditor considers the adequacy of the firm’s disclosures regarding its going concern in the firm’s annual report. Most commonly,...
Article
Policy-makers face pressures to improve lives and safeguard public finances sustainably. In this analysis, we estimate the economic importance of the health-care sector in 19 European national economies. We use input–output tables for the year 2010 and sectoral data to estimate a set of multipliers: simple, total, truncated, type I and type II mult...
Article
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This paper studies the role of interbank credit within an agent-based model of the financial sector. Our main contribution consists in a behavioral foundation of banks demand and supply in the interbank market. We connect 100 heterogeneous banks that adapt their liquidity positions in the presence of shocks from the real economy via interbank depos...
Chapter
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Knowledge discovery in databases is a comprehensive procedure which enables researchers to explore knowledge and information from raw sample data usefully. Some problems may arise during this procedure, for example the Curse of Dimensionality, where the reduction of database is desired to avoid feature redundancy or irrelevancy. In this paper, we p...
Article
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Financial cycles have an important impact on the real economy and should be closely observed by the monetary policy makers. This can be done by monitoring individual indicators, using composite indicators, or as we propose in this paper, by developing prediction models for cyclical components of GDP and phase detection. This way, we have tools whic...
Article
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We study the impact of selected characteristics of Slovenian tax residents with income from work with source in other countries on their fulfilment of tax obligations from this income. We received anonymised data for the year 2015 from Slovenian Financial administration, which includes selected taxation data, some demographic variables as well as s...
Article
This paper estimates the size of the economic impact generated by the Slovenian health care sector on the national economy in the 2009–2014 period. The study separately calculates output, income, employment, value-added and import multipliers for the Slovenian health care sector based on input-output analysis covering 49 sectors. Initially, values...
Conference Paper
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Research in auditing is “on the rise”. Globally research papers related to auditing in top-tier scholarly journals have been growing rapidly from nineties onwards. This paper presents an overview of the existing papers in the field of auditing in relation to Slovenia since auditing has started in Slovenia in 1993 and nothing is known about research...
Conference Paper
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Nowadays, most of databases for classification or regression consists of numerous features that describe the domain of interest. Therefore, they may have a huge influence on the results of classification/regression. A lot of research has shown that some features can be eliminated before the classification/regression in order to obtain better result...
Article
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The paper examines the VAT gap estimated on the basis of VAT tax returns. The assessment of tax gap dependence is examined based on macroeconomic influences and the measures of the Slovenian fiscal administration. Regarding the latter, the number of audits being performed and the effects of audit activity (tax yield) have been considered. The resul...
Article
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This paper examines the impact of audits on voluntary tax compliance in the area of value added tax in Slovenia. The analyses argues that audited taxpayers with additional tax assessments as the result of an audit display a higher level of tax compliance within the year of the audit as within the year before audit, while audited taxpayers with no i...
Chapter
Der Beitrag analysiert die Pflichten der Finanzinstitute bezüglich der Offenlegungen an die Staaten und die Steuerbehörden mit dem Ziel der Bekämpfung der grenzüberschreitenden Steuerhinterziehung und des Steuerbetrugs. In der aktuellen ökonomischen und finanziellen Krise stellt sich immer häufiger die Frage der gerechten Verteilung des Einkommens....
Working Paper
This paper studies the role of interbank credit within an agent-based model of the financial sector. Our main contribution consists in a behavioral foundation of banks demand and supply in the interbank market. This Working paper has been successfully upgraded and published (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11403-018-0228-5)
Article
Competitiveness of rail transport compared to road transport has been reducing, especially on regional railway lines. To improve this situation, the EU adopted various directives and regulations to increase efficiency of railway undertakings. In this paper we present an organizational and economic model based on European policies for local railway...
Article
The study reported here focused on finding a charging model for using regional railway lines. Due to geographical and technological characteristics, such lines are neglected and unused yet have great potential, especially for freight transport. The goal of the research was to calculate marginal maintenance costs of regional rail lines using an econ...
Article
This research focuses on the impact of public procurement for innovation (PPI) on a country's level of innovativeness. The available literature primarily consists of case studies that identify PPI’s impact on the innovativeness of particular firms. Therefore, this paper developed an econometric model to investigate the impact of PPI on the innovati...
Article
The paper presents a comprehensive treatment of the European Union banking sector in the 2000–2011 period. A wide set of economic indicators is used to derive two-level approach: micro and macro topologies. We use the methodology of the optimized spiral spherical self-organizing map, a version of Kohonen’s Self-Organizing Maps, which overcomes some...
Article
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An auditor’s report qualifies a company’s financial statements if the management’s representation of the company’s financial affairs is not in accordance with nationally generally accepted accounting pronouncements. The present research studies the qualification of auditors’ reports in relation to the circumstances in the company’s economic situati...
Article
In this paper we propose an approach for testing a structural break in dynamic conditional correlation models that is based on the extension of ordinary model equation with differential parameters, combined with dummy variables. This enables us to directly observe the difference in individual parameter or in a combination of parameters before and a...
Article
In this paper, we examine corporate income tax compliance dependence in the case of Slovenia by applying regression analysis. We have found that both penalty activities and audits are statistically significant. Moreover, in terms of the most important variables, both of the tax administration’s activities had varying effects. While penalties showed...
Conference Paper
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Portfolio selection is one of the most common problem in the field of finance. Many investors would like to allocate their funds in such way that ratio between return and risk will be as high as possible. Up to today, the problem has been solved with various approaches based on genetic algorithm technique and GA has proved to be suitable. In this p...
Article
In this paper, we will examine the causes behind the higher level of compliance with social security contributions in comparison with other tax categories in the case of Slovenia. The results of econometric models suggest that the activities of the Tax Administration of the Republic of Slovenia, which were more stringently performed in the area of...
Article
In this paper, we focus on the area of public finances, where the consequences of recession and government's responses to its effects significantly influenced some macroeconomic categories. Government deficits and government debts increased and collected revenues dropped. In addition, the economic crisis influenced a basic element of modern tax sys...
Article
This paper discusses tax debt collection, focusing on the importance of tax enforcement efficiency in the broader context of government revenues collection and the factors that affect the efficiency of tax enforcement alone. In the empirical section, we test a simple econometric model that, in the case of Slovenia, assesses the meaning of the tax e...
Article
The border effect is one of the problems, which can appear in the application of self-organizing maps (SOM). Different solutions were presented in the literature, but each of them has its drawbacks. In this paper we present a new method for overcoming the border effect - optimized spiral spherical SOM. We also show that standard measure of irregula...
Article
Paper presents a mechanism for measuring stability of banking system based on the default risk of nonbanking debtors and contagion potential of banks. The approach is tested on 1,000 randomized network topologies of 40 real banks. Banking system is treated as a complex system and stability is observed in terms of capacity to balance liquidity betwe...
Article
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In this paper the authors introduce a role-playing classroom exercise on consumer credit risk, which was carried out during an undergraduate course on risk management. The purpose of this research is to find a teaching tool in credit risk, which would boost motivation, encourage basic intuition, and prevent from overconfidence into quantitative too...
Article
This paper examines the volatility of the stock indices of two world powers - USA and China, before and during the global financial crisis. Generally, it is believed that markets of developing countries are riskier than the developed capital markets. The purpose of this study was to confirm or reject this common belief, to determine whether the cha...
Article
In this research we propose a new method for retail credit risk modeling. In order to capture possible non-linear relationships between credit risk and explanatory variables, we use a learning vector quantization (LVQ) neural network. The model was estimated on a dataset from Slovenian banking sector. The proposed model outperformed the benchmarkin...
Article
In this paper we address the primary problem of lenders: how to distinguish between low-and high-risk debtors prior to granting credit.We constructed two types of credit scoring models: one based on standard logistic regression and the other on growing cell structures (GCS), something which has never before been applied to this area of research. Th...
Article
This paper examines the demand for services of the Slovenian national postal operator for the direct mail and periodicals market and separately for the direct mail market. The main factors of the demand are found to be various price indicators with respect to individual market, two income series and the variable of economic environment. The results...
Article
This article aims to empirically support the hypothesis that behavioural patterns are key determinants of market movements. We developed a model for predicting market psychology which is based on the application of a self-organizing network algorithm. The estimated model is applied to a mechanical trading system, which independently adopts investme...
Article
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Several prior research studies have presented a model for audit opinion identification using a chosen combination of the company's accounting ratios as derived from financial statements. However, from the methodological viewpoint, there is one questionable issue: the appropriate performance evaluation of developed model taking into account auditors...
Article
This paper examines the quality of the macroeconomic forecasts of six institutions that regularly publish forecasts for Slovenia. The analysis focuses on an evaluation of the quality of forecasts for the real and nominal growth of GDP and for the average annual inflation rate for the period from 1997 to 2009. The quality of forecasts for selected m...
Article
This article focuses on investor behavior and, consequently, the mood in the market. By using a self-organizing network we develop a model which tries to capture the market mood and serves as an indicator of the reasonableness of selling or purchasing securities. In this sense, the final result of this model is the same as in the model-type predict...
Article
The aim of our study was to determine whether learning vector quantization neural networks could be used to predict liver metastases after a gastric cancer surgery. The prediction of tumor recurrence is invaluable for tailoring specific treatment and follow-up strategies for gastric cancer patients. At present, it is still impossible to make reliab...
Article
Using generation approach we examine the genesis and mechanisms in major financial crisis and focus on the recent sub – prime crisis. We believe that in the era of increased financial globalization a reliable approach has to consider besides fundamental factors multiple equilibriums and self – fulfilling character of financial crises. In recent glo...
Article
In this paper we show features of the personal income taxation in Slovenia and some early reforms on it. The proposed tax reforms have the same origins as in any other developed economy - loss of competitive advantages of the economy. We present the process of reforming the tax system in Slovenia as it took place in recent years. We also analyze re...
Article
The aim of the research was to determine weather learning vector quantization (LVQ) could be used to predict liver metastases after gastric cancer surgery. 213 patients operated for gastric cancer between 1999 and 2005 were included in our study. They were segmented in a model development (140 patients) and validation group (73 patients). The deter...
Article
In this paper, a presentation of functions of demand for the services of the Slovenian national postal operator is given separately for two market segments: the direct mail and periodicals market and the direct mail market Two findings are highlighted in particular. First, the price elasticity of demand on both markets is below zero. Second, autono...
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UDC: 3 3 6.763.2 68(497.13:497.15) In this article we study the performance of Croatian mutual funds and Bosnian investment funds. The risk/ return measures are assessed by using the Sharpe ratio, the Treynor ratio, Jensen's Alpha, and the Tre-ynor appraisal ratio. Furthermore, we analyze the timing ability of the funds using the quadratic regressi...
Article
In this study we use the self-organizing map (SOM) algorithm for constructing the topology of Europe's banking sector. The SOM algorithm can be used to visualize the most central property of high dimensional data, namely its cluster structure on a projected graphical map display that is easily understandable. In addition to the selected method, the...
Article
In the paper we tried to estimate the implications and consequences of Basel II for Slovenian banking sector just before its implementation. Our survey indicates that a lot of the Basel II impacts are actually unclear to the banks and even to the regulator. The impact on individual institutions will be driven by their level of sophistication in ris...
Article
In the last decade, the financial industry in Slovenia developed rapidly. Nevertheless, the capital market is, according to our findings, still not efficient. However, the dynamic analysis in our study shows that the market is rapidly approaching the properties of developed markets. By adopting these properties, the Slovenian market will give addit...
Article
A significant proportion of patients with ventricular fibrillation (VF) can only be defibrillated after a period of chest compressions and ventilation before the defibrillation attempt. In these patients, unsuccessful defibrillations increase the duration of heart arrest and reduce the possibility of a successful resuscitation, which could be avoid...
Article
The classical NBER leading indicators model was built solely within a linear framework. With recent developments in nonlinear time-series analysis, several authors have begun to examine the forecasting properties of nonlinear models in the field of forecasting business cycles. The research presented in this paper focuses on the development of a new...
Article
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The paper examines the financial crises of the 1990s. They represent a new kind of crises, as they do not seem to conform to the so-called first generation and second generation literature on currency crises. The outburst of the Asian crises brought a new challenge for economic policy. The attention has been placed on the self-fulfilling character...
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The paper provides a stock-market-performance analysis for three emerging European stock markets: Croatia, Slovenia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Using monthly observations we perform a detailed study of the performance of Croatian and Slovenian mutual funds and Bosnian investment funds. The risk-return measures of the funds are assessed using the S...
Article
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We analyze the European transition economies and show that time series for most of major indices exhibit (i) power-law correlations in their values, power-law correlations in their magnitudes, and (iii) asymmetric probability distribution. We propose a stochastic model that can generate time series with all the previous features found in the empiri...
Article
We analyze the European transition economics and show that many time series of major indices exhibit (i) power-law correlations in their values, (ii) power-law correlations in their magnitudes and (iii) an asymmetric probability distribution. Applying the phase randomization procedure to these time series, we show that magnitude correlations comple...
Article
In contrast to predominant behaviour of financial series of developed markets (no or very short serial correlations), financial series of emerging markets ex-hibit different behaviour. We investigate financial series of index returns for ten European transition economies. The results suggest the presence of long-range correlations. Additionally, al...
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A wavelet analysis of long-range dependence based on the Hurst exponent is presented in this paper. Numerical comparisons are made against traditional estimators of the exponent based on R/S analysis. The estimator is used to perform an analysis of the long-range dependence in the capital market of a small transition economy (Slovenia). Results of...
Article
To avoid the pitfalls of the widely used NBER model, in this paper we have adopted neural networks to forecast business cycles. We find that our model has overcome some of the main deficiencies of the classical leading indicators model: first, the model was able to correctly forecast all reference points in in-sample and out-of-sample data; second,...
Article
In this paper, a wavelet analysis of long-range dependence (LRD) based on the Hurst exponent is presented. An estimator is used to perform an analysis of LRD in the capital markets of six transition economies. The results suggest that we can divide the stock markets into two groups: markets with strong LRD (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Russia, and...
Article
Using a series of input-output tables authors study the structural changes in the Slovenian economy over the transition period. However, unlike other studies that rely exclusively on traditional quantitative analysis, this study employs an extended version of qualitative input-output analysis. The results show that the economy underwent some major...
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In this paper, we studied cyclical patterns in a transition economy. We introduced a dynamic perspective into the analysis by applying multivariate wavelet analysis. The wavelet covariance and wavelet correlation were defined and applied to the analysis of business cycles as an alternative to the traditional cross-spectrum analysis. The main findin...
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The transmission of financial crises across international borders has become increasingly relevant over the last few years. After gaining independence in 1991, Slovene economy is continually increasing its openness to the world market, but is therefore becoming increasingly vulnerable to external shocks. The evidence reviewed in the paper confirms...
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The article studies the properties of business cycles in seven Central and East European countries (CEEC-7). The properties are compared using multivariate wavelet analysis. The evidence of the study suggests that the length of the business cycles in the CEEC-7 is gradually decreasing to the business cycle length of the Organization for Economic Co...
Article
There is variety of important issues associated with the problem of business cycle forecasting, especially regarding forecast methodology and forecast evaluation. Overall, we can say that macroeconomic forecasting has a fairly poor reputation (Granger 1996). Still, even with the recognition that forecasting business cycles is a very difficult task,...
Article
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Leading economic indicators have a long tradition in forecasting future economic activity. Recent developments, however, suggest that there is scope for adding extensions to the methodology of forecasting major economic fluctuations. In this paper, the author tries to develop a new model, which would outperform the forecast accuracy of classical le...
Article
This paper studies cyclic patterns in the Slovene economy with spectral analysis. It examines if the transition in Slovenia was marked by a statistically significant movement of aggregate economic activity, which corresponds to the definition of business cycle proposed by Mitchell and Burns (1946). It finds that in the period 1992-2000 a statistica...
Article
In this paper we study cyclical patterns by applying multivariate wavelet analysis. The wavelet covariance and wavelet correlation are defined and applied to the analysis of business cycles as an alternative to the traditional cross-spectrum analysis. The main findings for Slovenia are that there is a significant business cycle component in aggrega...
Article
In this article, spectral analysis is used to study, cyclic patterns in the Slovene economy. We examine whether the transition in Slovenia was marked by a statistically significant movement of aggregate economic activity, which corresponds to the definition of the business cycle proposed by Burns and Mitchell. We find that in the period 1992-2000 a...
Article
Full-text available
The development of a stock market depends to a great extent on the development of institutional investors. The paper studies the mutual fund industry and applies various tests to evaluate the performance capacity of mutual funds. First, we briefly explain the data, and then we introduce the performance measures used to evaluate funds. Finally, we c...

Citations

... A large body of researchhas analysed the short-term and long-term economic impacts of COVID-19 [4][5][6]. The findings of the studies suggest that the pandemic has had serious negative impacts on households [7] as well as regional [8] and global [9] economies. ...
... One way of monitoring the impact is by measuring the change in the economy's output, value-added, income, employment, and import as input-output (IO) multipliers. The impact and economic importance of the healthcare sector in the economic ecosystem are being broadly studied in the literature from different perspectives, naming some (2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10). ...
... The last four papers (in italic) were not included in WoS database at the time when we conducted the final database search Year (2021) and Smole et al. (2021) Content courtesy of Springer Nature, terms of use apply. Rights reserved. ...
... The studies' results bring novelty to the international literature body. To evaluate the obtained empirical results and its robistness, we are benchmarking them to the previous empirical studies from other countries (8,10,21) and most importantly, compare them to the forecasted value of econometric models developed in an international study (21). ...
... But, this paper failed to explain the production of filtered metrics. Fister et al. (2021) explained the two robust long short-term memory (TRLSTM) techniques for stocks trading. In this paper, two LSTM neural networks were used for trading stocks and the trading performances were compared. ...
... Según Zdolšek et al. (2022), las empresas eslovenas presentan una calificación positiva por parte del auditor acerca de la hipótesis de negocio en marcha. Sin embargo, los indicadores financieros tales como la liquidez, eficiencia, rentabilidad y tasas de financiamiento son peores respecto de aquellas empresas que no tienen esta calificación. ...
... Some of the most representative items of public expenditure worldwide are those derived from health and education [1]. Focusing on the health field, problems derived from mental health are clearly on the rise in our society [2][3][4][5]. ...
... In the economic ecosystem, the healthcare sector plays an important role. The economic impact and economic characteristics of the healthcare sector were broadly explored in the literature [12][13][14][15][16][17]. ...
... The first group is dedicated to CSA-based methods that include ICSA1, ICSA2, CCSA, and ECSA. The second group is dedicated to some of the other meta-heuristic methods that include binary butterfly optimization approaches (BOA) (Arora & Anand, 2019), gravitational search algorithm (BGSA) (Rashedi, Nezamabadi-Pour, & Saryazdi, 2009), ABC, WFS-jDE (Fister, Fister, Jagrič, & Brest, 2019), PSO (Xue, Zhang, & Browne, 2012), sine cosine algorithm and DE (SCADE) (Abd Elaziz, Ewees, Oliva, Duan, & Xiong, 2017) and PSO and GWO (PSOGWO) (Singh & Singh, 2017). These methods have been selected because they have the best performance among all meta-heuristic algorithms. ...
... Nevertheless, we expected that the unique-model would adapt to the specifics of each stock and therefore outperform the common-model. This paper was written as an extension of Fister et al. [20] and Fister and Jagrič [19] and comprises the following main novelties: ...