Thomas J. Teisberg's scientific contributions
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Publications (21)
Every day, the U.S. electricity-generating industry decides how to meet
the electricity demand anticipated over the next 24 h. Various
generating units are available to meet the demand, and each unit may
have its own production lead time, start-up cost, and production cost.
Total costs can be minimized if electricity demand is accurately
forecast....
The cost of running a heat wave warning system for Philadelphia were practically at the "noise" level compared to the economic benefits of saving 117 lives in three years.
Introduction: The Philadelphia Hot Weather-Health Watch/Warning System was initiated in 1995 to alert the city's population to take precautionary actions when hot weather posed risks to health. This system is the basis for a number of other heat-health watch warning systems being instituted in cities worldwide. This is the first attempt to calculat...
This paper explores the incentives for participation in international CO2 control agreements using tradable emission permits. We employ a welfare analysis in a two-region model to explore these incentives. The two regions are Annex-I (A-I) and Non-Annex I (Non-A-I). A key insight underlying the analysis is that emission permit allocations must not...
In this paper, we use the CETA-R model to explore some implications of improved (i.e. lower cost) CO2 control technology. CETA-R represents the costs of global climate change in terms of small risks of large climate change related losses.
First, we treat technology cost as deterministic and explore the implications of improved control technology fo...
In this paper, we use the two region CETA-M model to explore some related issues raised by the current interest in CO2 concentration targets as a possible climate change policy objective. First, we identify possible cost and benefit assumptions that would make particular concentration ceilings optimal. Next, we explore the acceptability to both reg...
In this paper, we use a two-region version of the CETA model to analyze international CO2 emission control policies. The policies we consider are all substantially equivalent to a policy recently proposed by the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS). The AOSIS proposal requires the OECD alone to reduce emissions, while the alternatives we conside...
We present an uncertainty analysis conducted using CETA-R, a model in which the costs of climate change are specified as Risks of large losses. In this analysis, we assume that three key parameters may each take on “high” or “low” values, leading to eight possible states of the world. We then explore optimal policies when the state of the world is...
In this paper, we present a new specification of warming cost and incorporate it into an integrated assessment model of global climate change. In the new specification, warming cost is represented as the product of possible large warming related welfare losses which occur with small probabilities that depend on the amount of temperature rise. This...
This paper explores issues of international cooperation in CO2 emission control. We consider three cases: ‘selfish,’ in which region 1 controls optimally given its own damage costs and region 2 does not control; ‘altruistic,’ in which region 1 controls optimally given total worldwide damage costs while region 2 does not control; and ‘optimal,’ in w...
In this paper we extend our earlier work with the Carbon Emissions Trajectory Assessment model (CETA) to consider a number of issues relating to the nature of optimal carbon emissions trajectories. We first explore model results when warming costs are associated with the rate of temperature rise, rather than with its level, as in our earlier work....
We use a global model to compare the economic performance of three policy instruments for controlling CO2 emissions — period specific emission limits (limit policy), period specific taxes (tax policy), and a cumulative emissions limit (cumulative limit policy). With known costs and benefits of control, tax and limit policies are equivalent, and eit...
In this paper, we investigate the sensitivity of optimal carbon control strategies to parameters of the Carbon Emissions Trajectory Assessment (CETA) Model, and we use CETA in a simple decision tree framework to estimate the value of information about global warming uncertainties. We find that if an optimal control policy is used under uncertainty,...
We present an economic growth and energy use model incorporating representations of greenhouse gas accumulation, global mean temperature rise, and the damage cost associated with this temperature rise. Under alternative assumptions about the damage cost function, we find optimal time paths of CO, emissions control and associated optimal carbon taxe...
The application of economic valuation to hydrometeorological services has gained prominence as national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHS) focus more on providing gains to society. In addition, NMHS programs are increasingly called on to justify their budgets. In this paper we briefly discuss several issues related to the economic valu...
Citations
... An Early Warning System (EWS) is defined as a system which enables the provision of timely and effective information regarding a potential disaster, thereby allowing the execution of an emergency response by identified institutions, that reduces risk to individuals exposed to the hazard (UNISDR, 2006). These systems are instrumental in reducing mortality for recurring hazards (Ebi et al., 2004;Golnaraghi, 2012;Noji, 2000;Rogers and Tsirkunov, 2011;Teisberg and Weiher, 2009;World Bank and United Nations, 2010), and have been shown to provide substantial benefits that exceed their investment and maintenance costs (Brazzola and Helander, 2018;Pappenberger et al., 2015;Rogers and Tsirkunov, 2011 ...
... Peck and Teisberg (1995) is designed to determine control policies which optimally balance the costs of control against the costs of warming. The model presents worldwide economic growth, energy consumption, energy technology choice, global warming, and global warming costs over a time horizon of more than 200 years (see also Peck and Teisberg, 1993a, b and c for previous applications) -CONNECTICUT, Yohe and Wallace, 1995 The CONNECTICUT Model, introduced by Yohe and Wallace (1995), is a global model that combines elements of the probabilistic-scenario model of Nordhaus and Yohe (1983) and the DICE model. The model includes exogenously determined estimates of population and technological change while capital stock, fossil and non fossil fuel consumption, and economic growth, are determined endogenously. ...
... In this study, the HVI in the study area could provide useful information to the government in developing a heat warning plan or for any related parties, such as planners, decisionmakers, and other government institutions. In some cases, interventions by the relevant authorities in specific areas to prevent heat-related deaths have resulted in a lower mortality rate in subsequent heat events (Ebi et al., 2004). The relationship between the HVI and urbanisation can also help to improve future urban planning. ...
... Rather, it encompasses the whole system required for such a service, including the provision of pollen information according to region and time, as well as forecast and delivery of pollen information to the public and particular consumers. 2 Lazo et al. (2008) argued that weather forecasts are quasi-public goods because of their nonrival and limited-excludability nature. value of weather forecasts by proposing a value index that considered the cost–loss ratio and forecast errors. ...
... Benefits from such improvement would redound broadly. The literature [24] estimates that weather prediction is worth $31.5B 2 to the U.S. economy per year [25]. In oil exploration, we find substantial differences in the effect that additional computing yields for different companies, perhaps because of differing geologies. ...
... Trends in EHF HWs indices for historical time period 1961-2019 (59 years), Central AEZs, Chisinau: A) HW Magnitude Temperature (EHF.HWA), °C 2 /year; B) HW Peak Temperature (EHF.HWA), °C 2 / year; C) HW Number (EHF.HWN), annual event/ year; D) HW Frequency (EHF.HWF), annual events, %/year; E) HW Duration (EHF.HWD), days/year.In addition, the variation in the impact of heat waves on mortality might be modified by: a) demographic characteristics (e.g., population in high-risk categories, such as the elderly or less healthy)(Schifano et al. 2009); b) community-level adaptation levels to heat waves (e.g., heat wave warning systems)(Ebi et al. 2004); or c) personal adaptation strategies (e.g., air-conditioner use, housing structure, clothing type)(Farbotko & Waitt 2011; Barnett et al. 2013; Guo et al., 2017). ...
... The value chain concept has become a popular tool for describing and assessing the production, use and benefits of such services that are often established through co-design, co-creation and coprovision with the common goal of enabling timely action to reduce risks (WMO, 2015). This basic idea of generating value along an interconnected chain of processes can be translated into a hydrometeorological context (Lazo et al., 2008;Lazo and Mills, 2021). In this case, the value is in the information created and transmitted through the chain, leading to better decisions and, ultimately, user benefit through (primarily) reduced damage and losses from hazards through warnings. ...
... 현재 대부분의 기후경제통합-지역평가모형은 미국, 유럽, 일본 등에서 개발한 것으로 한국을 비롯한 후발 경제성장국들의 관심이 덜 반영되는 경향이 있다 (Stanton et al., 2008 (Wong, 2012). (Nordhaus, 2010), FUND (Anthoff and Tol, 2014a), MERGE (Manne and Richels, 2005), WITCH (Bosello and de Cian, 2014), CETA-M (Peck and Teisberg, 1999), GRAPE (Kurosawa, 2004), AIM/Dynamic (Masui et al., 2006), CRED (Ackerman et al., 2013a), AD-RICE(de Bruin, 2014), PAGE (Hope, 2011 (Tol, 1999;Chichilnisky, 2009 (Stanton, 2011;Abbott and Fenichel, 2014 ...
... At the same time, many reasons for enhancing current abatement have been also pinpointed such as inertia combined with uncertainty on the optimal emission target Ha-Duong et al. (1997), uncertainty on climate damage and non-linearities Manne and Richels (1992b); Peck and Teisberg (1996); Gjerde et al. (1999); Ambrosi et al. (2003); Keller et al. (2004), environmental irreversibilities Chichilnisky and Heal (1993); Ha-Duong (1998); Pindyck (2000), and induced technological change through learning-by-doing Goulder and Mathai (2000). More recently, research has focused on the damage function and its impacts on the economy Ackerman et al. (2010). ...
... Characterizing plasma waves and instabilities is also of considerable interest to the astrophysical plasma physics community, including for understanding electrodynamic coupling between Saturn and its moons 4,5 , the solar corona 6,7 , and Earth's magnetosphere 8 . Improved understanding in this field may provide early detection of geomagnetic storms, reducing the economic impact of these events by billions of dollars 9 . ...