Thomas Graeber’s research while affiliated with Harvard University and other places

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Publications (27)


Complexity and Time
  • Article

February 2025

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7 Reads

Journal of the European Economic Association

Benjamin Enke

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Thomas Graeber

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Ryan Oprea

A large literature shows that people’s valuation of delayed financial rewards violates exponential discounting, exhibiting a hyperbolic pattern: high short-run impatience that strongly decreases in the length of the delay. We test the hypothesis that the hyperbolic pattern in measured discount rates reflects mistakes driven by the complexity of evaluating delayed payoffs. We document that hyperbolicity (i) is strongly associated with choice inconsistency and cognitive uncertainty, (ii) increases in overt complexity manipulations and (iii) arises nearly identically in computationally similar tasks that involve no actual payoff delays. Our results suggest that even if people had exponential discount functions, complexity-driven mistakes would cause them to make hyperbolic choices. We examine which experimental techniques to estimate present bias are (not) confounded by information-processing constraints.


Stories, Statistics, and Memory

June 2024

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11 Reads

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9 Citations

Quarterly Journal of Economics

For many decisions, we encounter relevant information over the course of days, months, or years. We consume such information in various forms, including stories (qualitative content about individual instances) and statistics (quantitative data about collections of observations). This article proposes that information type—story versus statistic—shapes selective memory. In controlled experiments, we document a pronounced story-statistic gap in memory: the average impact of statistics on beliefs fades by 73% over the course of a day, but the impact of a story fades by only 32%. Guided by a model of selective memory, we disentangle different mechanisms and document that similarity relationships drive this gap. Recall of a story increases when its qualitative content is more similar to a memory prompt. Irrelevant information in memory that is similar to the prompt, on the other hand, competes for retrieval with relevant information, impeding successful recall.


Intertemporal Altruism
  • Article
  • Full-text available

February 2024

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57 Reads

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1 Citation

American Economic Journal: Microeconomics

Most prosocial decisions involve intertemporal trade-offs. Yet, the timing of prosocial utility flows is ambiguous and bypassed by most models of other-regarding preferences. We study the behavioral implications of the time structure of prosocial utility, leveraging a conceptual distinction between consequence-dated and choice-dated utility flows. We conduct a high-stakes donation experiment that comprehensively characterizes discounting behavior in self–other tradeoffs and allows us to identify different prosocial motives from their distinct time profiles. Our data can only be explained by a combination of choice- and consequence-dated prosocial utility. Both motives are pervasive and negatively correlated at the individual level. (JEL D15, D64, D91, I12, L31)

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Confidence, Self-Selection, and Bias in the Aggregate

July 2023

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38 Reads

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12 Citations

American Economic Review

The influence of behavioral biases on aggregate outcomes depends in part on self-selection: whether rational people opt more strongly into aggregate interactions than biased individuals. In betting market, auction and committee experiments, we document that some errors are strongly reduced through self-selection, while others are not affected at all or even amplified. A large part of this variation is explained by differences in the relationship between confidence and performance. In some tasks, they are positively correlated, such that self-selection attenuates errors. In other tasks, rational and biased people are equally confident, such that self-selection has no effects on aggregate quantities. (JEL C91, D44, D91)


Citations (15)


... At the same time, although most notions of complexity somehow reflect the difficulty to handle a task -or the associated cost-it is also the case that complexity is a term which is traditionally used in a casual way, without consensus on what exactly it means (Gabaix and Graeber, 2024). This lack of a widely accepted precise definition can possibly explain why scholars have also focused on measuring complexity, which can be in turn serve as a proxy for different types of complexity (Oprea, 2024a). 1 Common ways to measure complexity include direct metrics (Oprea, 2020), behavioral metrics (Banovetz and Oprea, 2023), and most importantly for this paper belief-based metrics (Enke and Graeber, 2023;Enke et al., 2024a,b). ...

Reference:

A robust measure of complexity
The Complexity of Economic Decisions
  • Citing Article
  • January 2024

SSRN Electronic Journal

... The authors concluded that discounting in social situations appears to be conceptually different from personal discounting. Chopra et al. (2024) also investigated the temporal structure of self-other tradeoffs but used a different design, with substantially longer time frames (up to 1 year) and monetary donations to charity. Interestingly, they found that prosocial decisions in the form of self-other tradeoffs had a distinct temporal profile beyond people's discounting in either domain (self and other when considered separately) and controlling for their atemporal preference for giving in this context. ...

Intertemporal Altruism

American Economic Journal: Microeconomics

... Increased complexity can result in (mental) overload and thus in suboptimal decisions. Negative effects of this nature have been observed in situations with many choice options, complex incentives, or multiple outcomes (see, e.g., ref. 12 for an overview of the effects of complexity on choice). This raises the question of whether an increase in the number of nudges results in (attention) overload and, consequently, worse performance not only on nonreminded, but also on reminded actions. ...

The Complexity of Economic Decisions
  • Citing Article
  • January 2023

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Additionally, internal capabilities and limitations shape corporate engagement in biodiversity and BRD (Krause et al., 2021). In particular, understanding and compiling BRD requires specific knowledge that is not necessarily transferable from other environmental topics; also, there is a lack of expertise among numerous ESG practitioners (Enke et al., 2023;Schumacher, 2022), which may negatively influence BRD. ...

Confidence, Self-Selection, and Bias in the Aggregate
  • Citing Article
  • July 2023

American Economic Review

... In a second version, agents observe the fundamentals but the cognitive process that translates fundamentals to actions is noisy, reflecting cognitive constraints. The latter explanation has gained attention in the growing literature on cognitive imprecision (Gabaix, 2019;Woodford, 2020;Enke and Graeber, 2023;Enke, Graeber, Oprea, and Yang, 2024), which shows how noisy information processing can account for a wide range of economic phenomena. ...

Cognitive Uncertainty
  • Citing Article
  • May 2023

Quarterly Journal of Economics

... Olsen (2016) found that citizens are more likely to recall anecdotal performance information about public services than statistical data. Similarly, Graeber et al. (2024) demonstrate that the effect of statistical information on individuals' perceptions diminishes by 73% within a day, whereas episodic information declines by only 32% in the same period. These findings underscore the enduring power of episodic information in shaping opinions and guiding decisions. ...

Stories, Statistics, and Memory
  • Citing Article
  • January 2022

SSRN Electronic Journal

... These anomalies include the willingness to accept (WTA) -willingness to pay (WTP) gap(Dubourg et al., 1994) preference reversals(Butler and Loomes, 2007), stochastic choices(Agranov and Ortoleva, 2017), insensitivity to variation in probabilities(Enke and Graeber, 2023), anomalies in intertemporal choices(Enke and Graeber, 2021), small-stakes risk aversion(Khaw et al., 2021), and many other violations of standard decision theory(Butler and Loomes, 2011). ...

Cognitive Uncertainty in Intertemporal Choice
  • Citing Article
  • January 2021

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Consideration of others and consideration of the future can be independent drivers of behavior, but there is also evidence that suggests that they are not independent because current behavior can also have future consequences for others. As Chopra et al. (2021) and Kölle & Lauer (2020) argue, one can experience pro-social utility at the time of decision (now) as well as at the time the consequences are experienced by others (in the future). Current behavior then depends on the weight an individual gives to the pro-social utility she anticipates to experience in the future. ...

Intertemporal Altruism
  • Citing Article
  • January 2021

SSRN Electronic Journal

... There are two main reasons why SRPs might have a stronger effect under ambiguity. First, when outcome probabilities are uncertain, individuals find it difficult to evaluate information and need to make subjective probability judgments (Enke and Graeber, 2019). In such situations, SRPs are likely to become more important as they are perceived as additional sources of information. ...

Cognitive Uncertainty
  • Citing Article
  • January 2019

SSRN Electronic Journal