Tetsuya Matsubayashi’s research while affiliated with Osaka University and other places

This study argues that the electoral reform in the 1990s accounts for declining differences in voter turnout between rural and urban districts. Drawing on that voter turnout was higher in rural districts with the greater number of seats per capita, I hypothesize that the smaller number of seats per seat as a result of the electoral reform reduced voter turnout in rural areas, which ultimately shrank the difference in voter turnout between rural and urban districts. This hypothesis is tested using data of the changes in the number of seats per capita at the district level and voter turnout at the municipality-level before and after the reform.

We demonstrate that intergovernmental transfers affect migration decisions. If local governments with large distributive allocations offer greater government employment, public works projects, and assistance to (small) businesses, they attract low-skilled or unemployed residents to move or stay in. We find that more allocations increase not only the share of low-income residents but also the economic disparity in the city. We exploit the major electoral reform in Japan as an instrumental variable.

Purpose The underreporting of suicides has been a serious global concern among scholars and policymakers. Several studies have sought to detect the prevalence of underreporting by examining whether suicide mortality rates are negatively correlated with those due to unknown intent or causes. This study adds to the literature by examining the potential underreporting of suicides in Japan, where suicide rates have greatly declined in the recent years. Methods We compiled subnational data from 47 prefectures between 1995 and 2016, obtained from Vital Statistics of Japan. We examined whether (1) mortality rates due to unknown intent or causes increased as suicide rates decreased; and (2) major socioeconomic causes of suicide (unemployment and divorce rates) had any relationship with the deaths due to unknown intent or causes. Results Our analysis indicates that mortality rates due to unknown intent or causes were uncorrelated with suicide rates and the above socioeconomic indicators. Conclusions In Japan, the frequency of suicides has no systematic relationship with deaths due to unknown intent or causes, suggesting the accuracy of suicide statistics.

This study examines the dynamic nature of voting in modern elections with wide voting windows. Our stylized two-period model predicts that, if voters are not myopic, turnout in the current period tends to increase as the costs in the other period increase. The model also predicts that overall turnout does not always decrease even when the costs increase. We test these predictions using novel data from Japan’s General Election in 2017 with a weather disruption caused by a powerful typhoon. Our analyses show that the tremendous costs on Election Day shifted the timing of voting and did not decrease overall turnout in 2017, as compared to 2014. Our model and findings build a new benchmark to understand how voters decide their timing of voting. This study also has implications for the unprecedented popularity of early voting in the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

How and why do major natural disasters affect suicide? This study revisits this question by focusing on the Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) in March 2011 as a historically important natural disaster. Using an event-study analysis, we assessed how the GEJE changed the suicide rates in the regions affected by it and whether its effect persisted, attenuated, or escalated over time. In addition, we explored the political and social channels underlying the relationship between the GEJE and suicide. Using prefecture-level data, our analysis reveals that suicide by men aged 40–64 years and 65 years and over showed a large decline in the GEJE-affected prefectures in the years following the earthquake, and this decline attenuated over time. Furthermore, following the GEJE, government spending increased while divorce rates decreased in the affected prefectures, both of which were correlated with male suicide rates. These findings indicate that suicide after major natural disasters is preventable when political and social reactions to disasters provide a safety net, especially for men.

Objectives The aim of the study was to examine COVID-19 preventive behaviours among individuals with mental health problems. Study design This is a pooled cross-sectional study. Methods Online survey data were analysed from 2000 Japanese adults collected in April and May 2020. Information was obtained on 13 COVID-19 preventive behaviours and anxiety and depressive symptoms using the Generalized Anxiety Disorder 7-item scale and Patient Health Questionnaire-9, respectively. Linear regression analysis was used to examine the associations. Results In models adjusted for demographic and socio-economic factors, anxiety (coefficient: −0.77, 95% confidence interval [CI]: −1.30, -0.24) and depressive symptoms (coefficient: −0.82, 95% CI: −1.34, -0.30) were both associated with significantly lower engagement in COVID-19 preventive behaviours. Conclusion Our results highlight the importance of facilitating the performance of preventive behaviours in individuals with mental health problems to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in this population.

In the era of growing income inequality around the world, it remains inconclusive how higher income inequality affects income bias in turnout (i.e., high-income citizens vote more likely than low-income citizens). Using large-scale cross-national survey data, we show that (1) strong income bias in turnout exists in many parts of the world, (2) higher income inequality is related to lower income bias in turnout by demobilizing high-income citizens and mobilizing low-income citizens, and (3) this relationship is partly explained by the pattern that vote buying is more common in societies with higher income inequality and thus mobilizes low-income citizens but decreases political efficacy among high-income citizens. Ultimately, this study suggests that growing income inequality may not exaggerate political inequality, but may challenge the legitimacy of democratic elections.

Backgrounds Austerity has been shown to have an adverse influence on people’s mental health and suicide rates. Most existing studies have focused on the governments’ reactions to a single event, for example, the Great Recession of 2008.Methods This study focused on significant changes in fiscal policy between 2001 and 2014 in Japan. The size of expenditures by national and local governments decreased dramatically between 2001 and 2006 under the neoliberal reform and then increased after the global economic crisis and the Great East Japan Earthquake. Using the data from 47 prefectures between 2001 and 2014, we tested whether more spending by the local governments was associated with a lower suicide rate in their jurisdiction. We also investigated whether this relationship was particularly salient during a more severe recession.Results Our analysis revealed that an increase of 1% in the per capita local government expenditures was associated with a decrease of 0.2% in the suicide rates among males and females aged between 40 and 64 and that this correlation was strengthened as the unemployment rate increased, particularly among males.Conclusions Government’s reaction to economic crises can either exacerbate or mitigate the negative impact of the economic recession on people’s mental health and suicide rates.

Backgrounds: Austerity has been shown to have an adverse influence on people’s mental health and suicide rates. Most existing studies have focused on the governments’ reactions to a single event, for example, the Great Recession of 2008. Methods: This study focused on significant changes in fiscal policy between 2001 and 2014 in Japan. The size of expenditures by national and local governments decreased dramatically between 2001 and 2006 under the neoliberal reform and then increased after the global economic crisis and the Great East Japan Earthquake. Using the data from 47 prefectures between 2001 and 2014, we tested whether more spending by the local governments was associated with a lower suicide rate in their jurisdiction. We also investigated whether this relationship was particularly salient during a more severe recession. Results: Our analysis revealed that an increase of 1% in the per capita local government expenditures was associated with a decrease of 0.2% in the suicide rates among males and females aged between 40 and 64 and that this correlation was strengthened as the unemployment rate increased, particularly among males. Conclusions: Government’s reaction to economic crises can either exacerbate or mitigate the negative impact of the economic recession on people’s mental health and suicide rates.