Tamma Carleton’s research while affiliated with The National Bureau of Economic Research and other places

... In the case of manufacturing, extreme heat hurts value added growth in summers. This is consistent with recent literature showing that extremely hot temperature leads to more worker absenteeism 23 and lower worker productivity in the manufacturing sector (see Rode et al. 2023). Conversely, extremely hot summer helps value-added growth in services, probably in activities that alleviate heat stress (such as indoor services or beach going). ...

Reference:

Rising Temperature, Nuanced Effects: Evidence from Seasonal and Sectoral Data

... 7 Despite the widespread use of CDL data in agriculture-climate research, CDL data has inherent errors that could potentially lead to uncertainty in land-use change calculations (Reitsma et al. 2016;Laingen 2015). Although there are limitations, the CDL data is still the primary source of land use information at the micro-level and is frequently used in the literature to influence land use policies (e.g., Boser et al. 2024;Ramsey et al. 2021;Jiang et al. 2021). We are cautious in the use of CDL data in our study region and take the following steps to minimize any potential errors that may arise from using CDL data. ...

Reference:

Climate-induced changes in agricultural land use: parcel-level evidence from California’s Central Valley

... This method leverages a variable known as an "instrument" that does not directly affect farmland NEP but influences human interventions. In certain scenarios, this instrumental variable can be used in a 2SLS regression to isolate the variation in regression variables unrelated to the outcome, thereby improving the unbiased estimation of the variables of interest 80 . When estimating the major human interventions -farmland NEP, we specifically used DEM (Digital Elevation Model) data as an instrumental variable. ...

Reference:

Human interventions have enhanced the net ecosystem productivity of farmland in China

... change on disease risk has been an increase in the global burden of mosquito-borne diseases, which exhibit a well characterized unimodal transmission-temperature relationship [117][118][119] . Climate change is also implicated as a contributing factor in the rapid range expansion of the mosquito vectors of malaria and dengue fever 120,121 and similar effects on ticks are also suspected, but less clearly established 122,123 . ...

Reference:

Pathogens and planetary change

... cloud cover, satellite angle). Proctor et al. [2023] suggest a multiple imputation approach that may be sensitive to functional form specifications. Egami et al. [2023] address an analagous problem in the NLP realm, developing a method similar to Proctor et al. [2023] for using gold-standard labeled data to adjust labels provided by an LLM. ...

Reference:

Adversarial Debiasing for Unbiased Parameter Recovery

... This approach is thus able to capture often hard-to-model emergent climate risks and inform more tailored approaches to building resilience. robust causal identification based on isolation of system response to the unpredictable component of weather versus more predictable components like cross-sectional averages (23) and longrun trends (8,24). An overarching methodological thrust has thus been toward highly localized estimates based on shocks that are statistically well identified in terms of past exposure but may only capture a small component of projected changes in future climate. ...

Reference:

Empirical modeling of agricultural climate risk

... The potential biases and errors in such an approach often do not appear to be sufficiently clarified when used for policy-related work. One way forward involves the use of observational data such as labour force surveys, time use surveys and firm-level data on labour allocation and outputs to estimate sub-national-specific, country-specific or region-specific response functions, and using these to compute projections and reduce uncertainty 5,10,11,20,21,26,30,34,38,150 . Definitions and differentiation between labour capacity and productivity need to be harmonized to improve the estimates and comparability of results. ...

Reference:

Heat stress and the labour force

... However, these studies focus on industrialized countries (as do IAMs) where people's livelihoods are less dependent on the weather. There is now a rich evidence base showing that the burden of global warming is unequally distributed, where the poor are less well-equipped to cope with harmful weather events rendering them more vulnerable to temperature changes [47][48][49]. ...

Reference:

More than a feeling: A global economic valuation of subjective wellbeing damages resulting from rising temperatures

... The study context, Uganda, has a tropical climate and experiences moderate temperature variations within a year; however, data from the EM-DAT shows that it experienced 15 floods and five droughts between 1990 and 2010. Moreover, research on other outcomes has shown that data from wealthier countries tend to underestimate climate impacts on poorer regions (Carleton et al., 2022). ...

Reference:

Climate shocks and human capital:evidence from Uganda

... Heatwave is one of the most common and influential meteorological hazards that can affect human health, agriculture, workplace productivity, wildfire frequency and public infrastructure (Perkins & Lewis, 2020;Rode et al., 2021). Heatwaves have become more frequent and more intense across most lands since the 1950s, including Asia, Europe and Australasia (IPCC, 2021), especially in the 21st century, such as the extreme heatwave events in Europe in 2003(Beniston, 2004Dong et al., 2016;Kew et al., 2019;Schar & Jendritzky, 2004), the severe heatwave event in Australia during 2009 (Pezza et al., 2012), the disastrous heatwave event in Russia in 2010 (Dole et al., 2011;Russo et al., 2014;Trenberth & Fasullo, 2012), the record-breaking hot summer in 2015 over Hawaiian Islands (Zhu & Li, 2017), the extraordinary heatwave event in North America in 2021 (Dong et al., 2023;Qian et al., 2022;Zhang et al., 2023), and the 2022 Extreme Heatwave in Southern China (Gong et al., 2024). ...

Reference:

Obvious difference of dominant circulation patterns between dry‐type and humid‐type heatwaves in North China