Sydney Schmitter’s research while affiliated with Stanford University and other places

The planned, permanent relocation of entire communities away from sea level rise (SLR) and coastal floods is an already occurring climate change adaptation strategy. Yet, planned relocations are fraught undertakings with multiple goals, and may or may not achieve their most basic objective: to reduce risk. Here we assess risk of future coastal flooding before and after moving, for three dates and three emissions scenarios, for 17 communities from a global dataset. Most communities achieved exposure reduction with less future inundation in destinations than origin sites, but the extent varies across time and emissions scenario. In all cases, origin sites have projected exposure to SLR plus a once-per-year flood, with increasing exposure under high emissions scenarios and towards 2100. In nine cases, even destination sites have projected inundation exposure under some scenarios. Small-island-to-small-island relocations had more projected inundation in destinations than moves from a small-island-to-mainland, or from mainland-to-mainland.

The planned, permanent relocation of entire communities away from areas facing sea level rise (SLR) and coastal floods is an increasingly recognized strategy for climate change adaptation. Yet, planned relocations may or may not reduce risk. We assess projections of future coastal flooding in all the completed or underway relocations that met our criteria for inclusion from a global dataset. Most of the 17 cases achieved exposure reduction with less future inundation in destinations than origin sites, but the extent varies across time and emissions scenario. In all cases, origin sites are projected to be exposed to SLR combined with a once-per-year flooding event. In nine cases, even destination sites are projected to be exposed to SLR plus a once-a-year flooding event under some scenarios. Small island-to-small island relocations had more projected inundation in destinations than moves from a small island-to-mainland, or from mainland-to-mainland.