Stuart Mead's research while affiliated with Massey University and other places
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Publications (30)
Volcano slope stability analysis is a critical component of volcanic hazard assessments and monitoring. However, traditional methods for assessing rock strength require physical samples of rock which may be difficult to obtain or characterize in bulk. Here, visible to shortwave infrared (350–2500 nm; VNIR–SWIR) reflected light spectroscopy on labor...
Understanding future volcanic eruptions and their potential impact is a critical component of disaster risk reduction, and necessitates the production of salient, robust hazard information for decision-makers and end-users. Volcanic eruptions are inherently multi-phase, multi-hazard events, and the uncertainty and complexity surrounding potential f...
Hazard assessment for infrastructure proximal to a volcanic vent raises issues that are often not present, or not as severe in hazard assessments for more distal infrastructure. Proximal regions are subject to a greater number of hazardous phenomena, and variability in impact intensity increases with the hazard magnitude. To probabilistically quant...
Landslides may be triggered by a variety of external factors and can lead to dramatic human and economic consequences. Systematically investigating all possible parameters that could potentially influence the extent of a landslide is costly and generally not practical. In this paper, a methodology to numerically assess the impact of potential lands...
The use of mass flow simulations in volcanic hazard zonation and mapping is often limited by model complexity (i.e. uncertainty in correct values of model parameters), a lack of model uncertainty quantification, and limited approaches to incorporate this uncertainty into hazard maps. When quantified, mass flow simulation errors are typically evalua...
The use of mass flow simulations in volcanic hazard zonation and mapping is often limited by model complexity (i.e. uncertainty in correct values of model parameters), a lack of model uncertainty quantification, and limited approaches to incorporate this uncertainty into hazard maps. When quantified, mass flow simulation errors are typically evalua...
Composite volcanoes can progressively weaken through hydrothermal alteration, which may lead to volcano collapse, forming far-reaching debris avalanches. This work reviews and synthesises the type and extent of hydrothermal alteration on Mt Ruapehu, New Zealand, from rock mechanical, mineralogical, hyperspectral imaging and aero-magnetic studies fo...
Volcaniclastic diamictons, while found in all ancient and modern volcanic settings across New Zealand, are most commonly associated with stratovolcanoes. Lahar refers to a volcanic mass flow that consists of variable amounts of water and particles of different-sized volcanic lithologies; such flows can exhibit a range of rheologies that rapidly cha...
Some geothermal areas are largely covered by
vegetation, making exploration and monitoring a
difficult and expensive task. Therefore, looking for
pathfinders/proxies in typical vegetation cover could
reveal information from the hydrogeological system
remotely. Buffering is a commonly used proximity
technique for spatial analyses in remote sensing....
Prolonged volcanic activity can induce surface weathering and hydrothermal alteration that is a primary control on edifice instability, posing a complex hazard with its challenges to accurately forecast and mitigate. This study uses a frequently active composite volcano, Mt Ruapehu, New Zealand, to develop a conceptual model of surface weathering a...
The Tongariro Volcanic Centre (TgVC), located at the southern end of the Taupo Volcanic Zone in New Zealand, has produced historical explosive eruptions of different eruptive styles. To understand magma ascent processes and their associated timescales, the textures and compositions of microlites and micro-phenocrysts from glass shards (c. 12 ka BP...
Crystals within volcanic rocks record geochemical and textural signatures during magmatic evolution before eruption. Clues to this magmatic history can be examined using crystal size distribution (CSD) studies. The analysis of CSDs is a standard petrological tool, but laborious due to manual hand-drawing of crystal margins. The trainable Weka segme...
Crystals within erupted volcanic rocks record geochemical and textural signatures during magmatic evolution prior to the onset of eruptions. Growth times of microlites can be derived through Crystal Size Distribution (CSD) analysis combined with well-constrained microlite growth rates, yielding petrologically-determined magma ascent timescales. Our...
Optical and laser remote sensing provide resources for monitoring volcanic activity and surface hydrothermal alteration. In particular, multispectral and hyperspectral imaging can be used for detecting lithologies and mineral alterations on the surface of actively degassing volcanoes. This paper proposes a novel workflow to integrate existing optic...
Probabilistic quantification of lahar hazard is an important component of lahar risk assessment and mitigation. Here we propose a new approach to probabilistic lahar hazard assessment through coupling a lahar susceptibility model with a shallow-layer lahar flow model. Initial lahar volumes and their probabilities are quantified using the lahar susc...
Lahars are volcanic flows containing a mixture of
fluid and sediment which have the potential to cause significant damage to
buildings, critical infrastructure and human life. The extent of this damage
is controlled by properties of the lahar, location of elements at risk and
susceptibility of these elements to the lahar. Here we focus on understan...
Lahars are mass flows containing variable concentrations of water and volcanic debris that can cause catastrophic impacts to life, livelihoods and infrastructure downstream from their volcanic origin. Accurate and quantitative information on lahar hazards are essential for reducing the impact of these events. Lahar hazard assessments often focus on...
Lahars are volcanic flows containing a mixture of fluid and sediment that have caused significant damage to buildings, critical infrastructure and human life. The extent of this damage is controlled by properties of the lahar, location of elements at risk and susceptibility of these elements to the lahar. Here we focus on understanding lahar-induce...
Accurate numerical simulation can provide crucial information useful for a greater understanding of destructive granular mass movements such as rock avalanches, landslides, and pyroclastic flows. It enables more informed and relatively low cost investigation of significant risk factors, mitigation strategy effectiveness, and sensitivity to initial...
Numerical modelling of extreme environmental flows such as flash floods, avalanches and mudflows can be used to understand fundamental processes, predict outcomes and assess the loss potential of future events. These extreme flows can produce complicated and dynamic free surfaces as a result of interactions with the terrain and built environment. I...
Changes in data completeness for the Smithsonian Institution's "Volcanoes of the World" (VOTW) eruption catalogue, by region and for selected countries, are determined and utilised to estimate average eruption recurrence intervals. In the VOTW database, the number of documented volcanic eruptions has increased markedly since the middle of the last...
Failure modes for earth dams are extensively reviewed and analysed using a
three-pronged approach including a literature review, physical observations of a representative
earth dam site and finite element structural analysis of the dam wall. Several
failure scenarios are used for predicting consequences in terms of downstream inundation
and damage....
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to show how simulation of the flow of particulates and fluids using discrete element modelling (DEM) and smoothed particle dynamics (SPH) particle methods, offer opportunities for better understanding the dynamics of flow processes.
Design/methodology/approach
DEM and SPH methods are demonstrated in a broad ran...
We explore the effect of dam wall collapse scenarios on the extent and speed of inundation resulting from a dam-break by taking advantage of the easy inclusion of dynamic moving objects in the smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) method. Insight into the degree of practical variation in the flood behaviours that can be generated by both the presen...
Citations
... For the purpose of eruption scenario creation for civil defense (Weir et al., 2022) or economic risk analysis (McDonald et al., 2017), a subsetting to the desired eruption VEI could be useful. In the case of forecasting an ongoing eruption that has already reached a certain VEI, limiting the analogue set to eruptions of at least that VEI would be indicated. ...
... This morphology directs most block-and-ash flows towards the NW sector of Egmont National Park; the past 800 years of block-and-ash flows have almost exclusively impacted this sector (Procter et al., 2010). Mead et al. (2022) simulated 1024 possible realisations of block-and-ash flows from the Mt. Taranaki summit at various dome and volume configurations using the Titan2D simulator (Patra et al., 2005). ...
... With the gradual increase in the mining scale of mineral resources, the number of mine dumps is increasing, and the mechanical properties of the soil in dumps are also being given more and more attention [1][2][3]. In the seasonal freeze-thaw area, the soil body of the dump site is affected by the changes of water, heat, and force during the freeze-thaw process, and its mechanical properties change, which makes the dump site unstable [4,5]. ...
... One of the main discoveries of this research was the evolution of seismic signals produced by the lahar as the flow moved further from its source. The changes in the seismic signal along with the flow characteristics may be able to help hazard and forecast modeling through the use of numerical models (e.g., Mead et al., 2021). Modern flow hazard assessment is based on numerical models that use potential energy equations of a large non-changing mass sliding down slope with limited inputs for how the flow may evolve over time as starting inputs. ...
... This choice also strongly depends on the type of the hazard assessment performed. Regarding the choice of the four selected models for CPC hazard assessment, time is an important variable, and a balance must be stricken in terms of the total computational time required to couple the physical model and the uncertainty quantification (UQ) technique chosen (e.g., Marzocchi and Bebbington 2012;Calder et al. 2015;Bevilacqua et al. 2019;Tierz et al. 2021). For rapid crisis management, when a few simulations must be run in a limited amount of time for risk mitigation, the computational time (Table 5) is the most crucial metric. ...
... They can also locally strengthen volcanic rocks, resulting in blocked degassing pathways that can drive explosive events (Heap et al., 2019;Kennedy et al., 2020). Therefore, defining the types and spatial extent of rock alteration processes are critical for a thorough understanding of volcanic activity and associated hazards (Crowley and Zimbelman, 1997;Ball et al., 2013;Tayebi et al., 2014;Heap et al., 2021a;Kereszturi et al., 2021;Darmawan et al., 2022;Mordensky et al., 2022). ...
... These flows can move a sizable amount of liquid and debris great distances which can critically impact locations hundreds of kilometers from the volcano or source. Lake breakout or outburst flood events can be particularly destructive because they tend to be larger and can cause long-lasting changes to the landscape and surrounding ecosystems (O'Connor et al., 2022;Procter et al., 2021). Furthermore, unlike eruption or rain-triggered mass flows, outburst floods have very little to no warning. ...
... Reflectance spectroscopy has become increasingly used to explore soil and rock types by spectral band analysis, such as in the visible and near-infrared (350-1000 nm; VNIR), shortwave infrared (1000-2500 nm; SWIR) and thermal infrared (7000-13000 nm; TIR) bands relevant for hydrothermal alteration mapping (Rowan et al., 2003;Darmawan et al., 2018;Kereszturi et al., 2018;Müller et al., 2021). In particular, those alteration zones including iron oxide, as well as argillic, phyllic, and propylitic alterations min-erals, can be identified using both multispectral (Loughlin, 1991;Rowan et al., 2003) and hyperspectral data (Clark et al., 2003;Neal et al., 2018;Kereszturi et al., 2020;Thiele et al., 2022). Airborne, drone-based or carry-on devices can also effectively map physico-chemical changes of volcanic rocks and, when combined with effective processing algorithms (e.g., Partial Least Squares Regression) that can handle collinearity and high dimensionality (e.g., Wold et al., 2001), they can become effective platforms for characterising the mineralogy and alteration of volcanic rocks. ...
... Similar to multiple growing fields, materials science and engineering have benefitted from the application of CNNs in property prediction [3][4][5], the homogenization of heterogeneous materials [6], and various uses in transmission electron microscopy [7][8][9]. Surprisingly, although there have been several machine learning and semi-automated approaches applied in microstructural characterization (i.e., metallographic or ceramographic analysis) [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24], the use of CNNs in grain-size determination, while growing, has been comparatively minimal. ...
... Their results show an improvement of 10% when using DT over other classifiers. Other recent studies on lithological discrimination and geological mapping suggest the 1 3 125 Page 2 of 17 use of PCA, MNF, BR, and ICA on Landsat 8 data (Kereszturi et al. 2018;Lavanya et al. 2020;Clabaut et al. 2020;Fotso Kamga et al. 2021;El-Sawy et al. 2022). The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) was launched on December 18th, 1999. ...