Stephen H. Penman’s research while affiliated with Bocconi University and other places

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Publications (122)


Accounting for Asset Pricing Factors
  • Article

February 2025

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5 Reads

Journal of Business Finance & Accounting

Stephen Penman

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Many accounting numbers appear in standard factor models but without a clear explanation. The numbers are generated under accounting principles that deal with risk, providing an explanation but also a critique of how extant models identify accounting‐based factors. That leads to a revised factor construction. Accounting numbers are codetermined in a double‐entry system, a feature that is exploited in packaging the factors into a model. Rather than entering as the separate, additive factors, adding to the “factor zoo,” they are combined parsimoniously to capture the information they jointly convey about risk and return in the double‐entry system. Empirical tests confirm.







Accounting for Uncertainty

December 2023

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9 Reads

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2 Citations

Accounting, Economics, and Law

In accordance with the theme of the Yuri Ijiri lectures, I focus on something foundational to accounting: the communication of uncertainty through accounting numbers. I do so in the context of providing information to investors about “the amount, timing, and uncertainty of future cash flows”, an objective of accounting standard setters (with emphasis added). I outline accounting principles that convey uncertainty and discuss the implications for a financial statement analysis that extracts information about uncertainty. I also show how accounting-based valuation is modified to incorporate that information. Asset pricing in finance deals with risk and uses accounting numbers to do so. I explain how that endeavor might be improved by recognizing the accounting for uncertainty. That puts accounting and finance on the same platform. Finally, I address normative issues of accounting policy for conveying information about the uncertainty of future cash flows.


The Accruals–Cash Flow Relation and the Evaluation of Accrual Accounting

December 2023

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86 Reads

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1 Citation

Abacus

Considerable research has evaluated the role of accruals in determining informative earnings, with an accrual–cash flow relation at the centre of the investigation. However, much of the research is based on a misunderstanding. First, accruals are identified as the numbers that reconcile earnings to cash flows in the cash flow statement. But these are not the non‐cash accruals applied in determining earnings in the accrual accounting system; rather, they are changes in balance sheet items, most of which are the relevant accruals reduced by cash flow. Thus, they are in part determined by cash flows. Second, accruals are characterized as an adjustment to cash flows, to reduce volatility of cash flows. Consequently, a negative correlation between accruals and cash flow—the accruals–cash flow relation—has been taken as the criterion for quality accruals. However, the correlation with cash flows is spurious, for the so‐called accruals are determined in part by cash flows. This paper presents a corrective analysis under which non‐cash accruals are identified as the components of earnings that do not involve cash flows. With this correction, the paper then conducts empirical tests that re‐examine hypotheses about accruals tested in previous research, reporting contrasting results.


Income statement mismatching has not reduced the informativeness of earnings over time

October 2023

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20 Reads

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3 Citations

Journal of Business Finance & Accounting

Research has concluded that there has been a decline in the informativeness of earnings over recent years. The reported decline has been attributed to an increasing mismatch of expenses to revenues due to the increasing expensing of investments in so‐called intangible assets to the income statement. That suggests a remedy is required and, with accounting standards boards now considering intangible asset accounting, the issue is particularly pertinent. However, his paper challenges the conclusions from the research by documenting that the mismatching adds information for pricing. It does so by distinguishing higher risk investment from that booked to the balance sheet, and the market prices it as such. Further, in a seeming contradiction, the mismatching enhances matching, and empirical tests confirm. Once mismatched expenses and matched earnings are separated, there is little indication of a decline in the information content of accounting over time.


The implied cost of capital: accounting for growth
  • Article
  • Publisher preview available

July 2023

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119 Reads

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3 Citations

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting

This paper involves a critique of the Implied Cost of Capital (ICC) that leads to an alternative measure which, like the ICC, is extracted from accounting data. The critique deals with how the ICC handles the accounting involved. First, the ICC fails an accounting consistency condition. Second, expected earnings growth conveys risk and return, but this is not recognized when a growth rate is inserted in the reverse engineering exercise. Empirical tests so confirm. An alternative accounting-based measure accommodates these points and validates on criteria indicating risk and return. The resulting measure is a yield to maturity for equities, much like that for a bond.

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Citations (79)


... On the profit/loss -basis, the profit rate includes value growth, operative expenses, interests, and amortizations, but neglects investments and withdrawals. It is worth noting that the profit rates in Eq. (1) are additive, instead of compounding [26,50]. On the other hand, the expected value of the capitalization is ...

Reference:

Complex economics of simple periodic systems
Accounting for Uncertainty
  • Citing Article
  • December 2023

Accounting, Economics, and Law

... H 2 : Combining operating cash flow with aggregate accruals can effectively predict future operating cash flow Barth et al. (2001) highlight that the predictive power of different accrual components varies, challenging the effectiveness of relying solely on aggregated accruals (Ali et al., 2022;Efayena, 2015;Nallareddy et al., 2020;Nguyen & Nguyen, 2020;Oh & Penman, 2024) for accurate cash flow predictions. Disaggregating accrual components, such as changes in accounts receivable (AR), accounts payable (AP), inventory (INV), and depreciation and amortization expenses (DAE), can further enhance the accuracy of OCF predictions. ...

The Accruals–Cash Flow Relation and the Evaluation of Accrual Accounting
  • Citing Article
  • December 2023

Abacus

... Several scientists also present conclusions on the recognition of IA in the financial reports. According to authors, at present, one of the most topical studies have been performed by Penman (2023) who analyzed specialists' views and discussed on the most appropriate accounting for IA, including internally generated IA. This scientist concludes that investments (tangible and intangibleauth.) ...

Accounting for Intangible Assets: Thinking It Through
  • Citing Article
  • January 2023

Australian Accounting Review

... Analysing the SMB factor, Asness et al. (2018) tried to dig behind the mere notion of size, correcting it for the 'quality' risk implicit in the firm. Penman and Reggiani (2022) emphasize the role the earning growth risk of small firms related to the outcome of R&D expenses in determining expected return 1 . They argue that the potential growth of a firm, associated with R&D, advertising, and other expenses that may generate goodwill, is at risk of not being realized, and the risk associated with this possibility needs to be compensated by extra return. ...

A Fundamental Explanation for the Size Premium in Returns and its Variation Over Time
  • Citing Article
  • January 2022

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Return on Assets (ROA) is a financial ratio that measures a company's profitability relative to its total assets. According to Penman and Zhu (2022), ROA indicates how efficiently a company is using its assets to generate earnings, calculated as net income divided by total assets. Kubick et al. (2020) describe ROA as a crucial metric for assessing managerial effectiveness in utilizing assets to produce profit. ...

An Accounting-based Asset Pricing Model and a Fundamental Factor
  • Citing Article
  • January 2022

Journal of Accounting and Economics

... Accounting increasingly addresses temporal and probabilistic factors in value creation, seeks to identify the value characteristics of assets, and considers those aspects of enterprise functioning that cannot be quantified in monetary terms-such as anthropogenic impacts, social responsibility and fairness, contributions to sustainable societal development, and more (Barker et al, 2022). ...

Accounting for intangible assets: suggested solutions

Accounting and Business Research

... However, in the condition of growing sales, it can have an impact on the opportunity cost because investment in long-term assets is financed by debt. There is an argument that investment decisions in working capital have a relationship with funding decisions that can have an impact on liquidity risk in the short term and financial risk in the long term because of funding sources mismatch and operating risk due to sales uncertainty (Imbierowicz and Rauch, 2014;Li, Nissim and Penman, 2014;Sajjad, 2018). Therefore, it is necessary to manage working capital that is able to bridge the liquidity risk and operating risk, namely through optimization of free cashflow as the impact of both risks as a trade-off. ...

Profitability Decomposition and Operating Risk
  • Citing Article
  • January 2014

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Complementarily, the balance sheet reports less risky assets, fulfilling a role for the balance sheet in reporting assets that back up debt. Oh and Penman (2020) report that the market discounts investment expensed to the income statement as more risky than that booked to the balance sheet. Oswald et al. (2020) report that R&D deemed successful is priced with a 2% premium to that not so, indicating that the market reprices the investment when uncertainty is reduced. ...

Income Statement Mismatching Has Not Reduced the Information Conveyed by Accounting Over Time
  • Citing Article
  • January 2020

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Identifiable intangible assets as a whole support debt financing in companies that lack tangible assets. Although such data sets provide estimates of the fair value of intangible assets for only a small percentage of companies Intangible assets has gained fundamental economic benefits in the company, where causing businesses to rely more Intangible assets (Zambon et al., 2020 andBarker et al., 2020). Today's economy is mainly driven by development and management Intangible assets, which is a key factor in the company's competitiveness and main driver of growth (Córcoles, 2010 andZambon et al., 2020). ...

Accounting for Intangible Assets: Suggested Solutions
  • Citing Article
  • January 2020

SSRN Electronic Journal