Stefano Potter's research while affiliated with Woodwell Climate Research Center and other places
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Publications (20)
The northern permafrost region has been projected to shift from a net sink to a net source of carbon under global warming. However, estimates of the contemporary net greenhouse gas (GHG) balance and budgets of the permafrost region remain highly uncertain. Here we construct the first comprehensive bottom-up budgets of CO2, CH4, and N2O across the t...
The northern permafrost region has been projected to shift from a net sink to a net source of carbon under global warming. However, estimates of the contemporary net greenhouse gas (GHG) balance and budgets of the permafrost region remain highly uncertain. Here we construct the first comprehensive bottom-up budgets of CO, CH, and NO across the terr...
The long-term net sink of carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the northern permafrost region is projected to weaken or shift under climate change. But large uncertainties remain, even on present-day GHG budgets. We compare bottom-up (data-driven upscaling, process-based models) and top-down budgets (atmospheric inversion models)...
The snow cover extent across the Northern Hemisphere has diminished while fire extent and severity has increased over the last five decades with accelerated warming. However, the effects of earlier snowmelt on fire is largely unknown. Here, we assessed the influence of snowmelt timing on fire ignitions across 16 ecoregions of boreal North America....
Fire is the dominant disturbance agent in Alaskan and Canadian boreal ecosystems and releases large amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. Burned area and carbon emissions have been increasing with climate change, which have the potential to alter the carbon balance and shift the region from a historic sink to a source. It is therefore critically i...
Tundra environments are experiencing elevated levels of wildfire, and the frequency is expected to keep increasing due to rapid climate change in the Arctic. Tundra wildfires can release globally significant amounts of greenhouse gasses that influence the Earth's radiative balance. Here we develop a novel method for estimating carbon loss and the r...
Small water bodies (i.e., ponds; <0.01 km²) play an important role in Earth System processes, including carbon cycling and emissions of methane. Detection and monitoring of ponds using satellite imagery has been extremely difficult and many water maps are biased toward lakes (>0.01 km²). We leverage high‐resolution (3 m) optical satellite imagery f...
Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS) are thermokarst features in ice-rich hillslope permafrost terrain, and their occurrence in the warming Arctic is increasingly frequent and has caused dynamic changes to the landscape. RTS can significantly impact permafrost stability and generate substantial carbon emissions. Understanding the spatial and temporal di...
Fire is the dominant disturbance agent in Alaskan and Canadian boreal ecosystems and releases large amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. Burned area and carbon emissions have been increasing with climate change, which have the potential to alter the carbon balance and shift the region from a historic sink to a source. It is therefore critically i...
Climate change is intensifying fire regimes across boreal regions, and thus both burned area and carbon emissions from combustion are expected to increase significantly over the next several decades. Fire management through initial suppression of fires is effective at reducing burned area, but limited work has addressed the role that fire managemen...
Tundra environments are experiencing elevated levels of wildfire, and the frequency is expected to keep increasing due to accelerating climate change in the Arctic. Tundra wildfires can release globally significant amounts of greenhouse gasses that influence the Earth’s radiative balance. Here we develop a novel method for estimating carbon loss an...
Spectroscopy is a powerful means of increasing the availability of soil data necessary for understanding carbon cycling in a changing world. Here, we develop a calibration transfer methodology to appropriately apply an existing mid infrared (MIR) spectral library with analyte data on the distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) into particulate (P...
Soil respiration (i.e. from soils and roots) provides one of the largest global fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere and is likely to increase with warming, yet the magnitude of soil respiration from rapidly thawing Arctic-boreal regions is not well understood. To address this knowledge gap, we first compiled a new CO2 flux database for...
The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink‐source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different...
Carbon (C) emissions from wildfires are a key terrestrial–atmosphere interaction that influences global atmospheric composition and climate. Positive feedbacks between climate warming and boreal wildfires are predicted based on top-down controls of fire weather and climate, but C emissions from boreal fires may also depend on bottom-up controls of...
Boreal wildfires are increasing in intensity, extent, and frequency, potentially intensifying carbon emissions and transitioning the region from a globally significant carbon sink to a source. The productive southern boreal forests of central Canada already experience relatively high frequencies of fire, and as such may serve as an analog of future...
An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.
Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter1,2,3, greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO2)⁴. However, the amount of CO2 released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates5,6. Here we sy...
Fire is a primary disturbance in boreal forests and generates both positive and negative climate forcings. The influence of fire on surface albedo is a predominantly negative forcing in boreal forests, and one of the strongest overall, due to increased snow exposure in the winter and spring months. Albedo forcings are spatially and temporally heter...
Boreal forest fires emit large amounts of carbon into the atmosphere primarily through the combustion of soil organic matter1–3. During each fire, a portion of this soil beneath the burned layer can escape combustion, leading to a net accumulation of carbon in forests over multiple fire events⁴. Climate warming and drying has led to more severe and...
Citations
... For example, icedammed lakes can be short-lived and may experience spontaneous drainage (Hewitt and Liu, 2010;Carrivick et al., 2017;Jacquet et al., 2017), therefore they require continuous monitoring to allow advance warning. PlanetScope satellite imagery provides daily coverage at 3 m resolution (Qayyum et al., 2020;Mullen et al., 2023), but the data is not publicly available. Recent studies have utilized UAS data to supplement satellite data to combine the benefits of both platforms and obtain information quickly and inexpensively with greater temporal and spatial resolution (Wigmore and Mark, 2017;Gaffey and Bhardwaj, 2020). ...
... However, new developments in automated mapping may constitute the solution. Very recently, deep-learning routines have been develop to map RTS (see, Nitze et al., 2021;Yang et al., 2023), although most of the applications have been placed in Tibet (Huang et al., 2020(Huang et al., , 2021 and only a few are available in high-arctic regions (Witharana et al., 2022). In the case of ALD, their occurrence has been mapped through change-detection (Rudy et al., 2013). ...
... Our fire carbon emission estimate for boreal ecosystems (CO 2 and CH 4 , 113.2 TgC yr -1 ) is slightly lower than the one of 142 Tg CO 2 -C yr -1 previously reported by Veraverbeke et al. (2021). Using GFED4s data, our budget might underestimate fire CO 2 emissions as shown in Potter et al. (2022), where GFED4s emissions were 36% lower than the ones obtained using the ABoVE-FED data-driven product. ...
... The average CO 2 emission obtained in our study for the northern taiga ecosystems and palsas are consistent with the data presented in literature. The values obtained for bogs are higher than those reported for analogous ecosystems [21,27,35,51]. In fact, data on the CO 2 emission for tundra ecosystems, especially for ecotone landscapes, are limited. ...
... Canada's boreal zone accounts for 28%, or 552 Mha, of the global boreal ecosystem, and is characterized by a variety of forest stand ages, complex disturbance histories, a small number of dominant species, and high-latitude continental climatic conditions (Brandt et al. 2013;Kurz et al. 2013;Price et al. 2013). With regional variation in species distribution, their productivity, and underlying soils, the total boreal ecosystem is estimated to sequester an average of 8850 TgC yr À 1 (1E þ 9 Kg of Carbon per year) , 62% of which is during the growing season (Virkkala et al. 2021). Due to these complex heterogenous patterns and drivers of land cover and land cover change, quantifying the rate of carbon sequestration in these boreal environments is challenging. ...
... Another possible option could be to combine recent advancements in spectroscopic techniques (e.g. diffuse reflectance mid-infrared spectroscopy-based models) with C fraction measured data based on Rock-Eval® analysis (Sanderman et al., 2021) in order to derive Rock-Eval® parameters not from thermal analyses but from spectroscopic measures, which are even faster and easier to conduct on large spatial scale. However, relating the Rock-Eval® parameters to spectral variables remains entirely to be built and tested and was clearly out of the scope of the present study. ...
... In addition, former studies did not differentiate between different fire intensities. Yet it is well known that fire intensities strongly vary according to below-and aboveground biomass fuel availability, plant composition and soil drainage (Walker et al., 2020). While it has been reported that permafrost GHG emissions can differ substantially depending on fire intensity (Sawamoto et al., 2000, Boby et al., 2010, Morishita et al., 2015, the role of different fire intensities for the abundance of microbes catalyzing major processes of nutrient cycling is still unclear. ...
... North American boreal forests play a vital role in the global carbon cycle (Dieleman et al. 2020). Yet, the carbon balance of these forests is threatened by increasingly frequent stand-replacing disturbances, including forest fires (Mack et al. 2021), insect outbreaks (Bright et al. 2020), and timber harvests (Masek et al. 2011). ...
... Changes in the depth and distribution of snow cover can lead to both increased insulation and exposure of terrestrial plants to freezing and temperature extremes (e.g., Ávila-Jiménez & Coulson 2011;Semenchuk et al. 2013;Cooper 2014;Convey et al. 2015;Foster et al. 2016;Convey et al. 2018). For instance, temperatures close to and even above 0 °C under deep snow cover lead to a continuation of biological activity and depletion of energy reserves (Convey et al. 2015;Semenchuk, Christiansen et al. 2016;Natali et al. 2019). In severe winters, vegetation experiences frost damage, caused by either lack of insulation from snow, ambient temperature fluctuations, or ROS events leading to basal ice accumulation (Bjerke et al. 2017). ...
... Forest ecosystems, occupying approximately 30% of the terrestrial surface and constituting 60% of terrestrial biodiversity 4 , have a three-dimensional canopy structure and can create shading, affect air mixing, exert evapotranspirative cooling and thus form a phenomenon known as "forest microclimate". This microclimate in forests is different from the openground environment and often shows a stable low temperature, thus creating microrefugia with a comfortable habitat for species to mitigate extreme heat under global warming [5][6][7][8][9][10] . ...