Solomon Hsiang’s research while affiliated with Stanford University and other places

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Publications (50)


A robot-assisted pipeline to rapidly scan 1.7 million historical aerial photographs
  • Preprint

March 2025

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1 Read

Sheila Masson

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Alan Potts

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Allan Williams

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[...]

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Anna Tompsett

During the 20th Century, aerial surveys captured hundreds of millions of high-resolution photographs of the earth's surface. These images, the precursors to modern satellite imagery, represent an extraordinary visual record of the environmental and social upheavals of the 20th Century. However, most of these images currently languish in physical archives where retrieval is difficult and costly. Digitization could revolutionize access, but manual scanning is slow and expensive. Here, we describe and validate a novel robot-assisted pipeline that increases worker productivity in scanning 30-fold, applied at scale to digitize an archive of 1.7 million historical aerial photographs from 65 countries.



Destructive Behaviour, Judgement, and Economic Decision-making under Thermal Stress

January 2025

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6 Reads

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7 Citations

The Economic Journal

Accumulating evidence indicates that environmental temperature substantially affects economic outcomes and violence, but the reasons for this linkage are only partially understood. We study whether temperature directly influences behaviour by evaluating the effect of thermal stress on multiple dimensions of economic decision-making, judgement, and destructive behaviour with 2,000 participants in Kenya and the US who were randomly assigned to different temperatures in a laboratory. The main finding is that most major dimensions of economic decision-making are unaffected by temperature. We also find that heat significantly increases willingness to voluntarily destroy other participants’ assets in the Kenyan sample.



State monthly maximum wind speed from tropical cyclones
LICRICE modeled monthly maximum wind speed from tropical cyclones between 1930 and 2015. State tropical cyclone wind speeds are averages across pixels.
Breaking down the effect of tropical cyclones on mortality into analytical components
(a) mapping a sequence of tropical cyclone wind speed incidences (an “impulse” modeled as Dirac delta functions). (b) Each impulse has an underlying, unobserved, response function (“impulse response”). (c) Superposition of overlapping impulse responses over time. (d) Observed envelope of the overlapping impulse responses, used to estimate the average impulse response function (see Methods).
State monthly all-cause mortality rate
Monthly state all-cause mortality rate (per 100,000) between 1950–2015 (orange line) and predicted mortality rate from Eq. 7 (red dots).
Examining model fit with fixed-effects, time trends, tropical cyclones, and temperature
All cause monthly mortality observations, per 100,000, (grey line) and predicted excess all cause monthly mortality (black dots), in Florida and New Jersey. (a) predictions estimated from a model with eighth-order polynomial state- specific trend, linear month-by-state trend, and state-specific seasonality. (b) Predictions including elements in (a) plus quadratic temperature and linear wind speed effects. (c) predictions including elements in (b) and month of sample fixed-effects, equivalent to Eq. 7 (see Methods).
Randomization-based placebo tests and permutation tests
In left panels are true estimates for Ωℓ (black line), plus quartiles and 1st, 2nd, 5th, 10th, 90th, 95th, 98th, 99th percentile of randomized estimates, Ωrandomized, (grey shaded plumes) for each of the four randomizations described in the main text and illustrated in Fig. SI7. P-values (pℓ) for individual lag terms in right panels are for a two-sided joint permutation tests of the cumulative effect accounting for estimated parameter covariances (see Methods).

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Mortality caused by tropical cyclones in the United States
  • Article
  • Full-text available

October 2024

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71 Reads

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13 Citations

Nature

Natural disasters trigger complex chains of events within human societies¹. Immediate deaths and damage are directly observed after a disaster and are widely studied, but delayed downstream outcomes, indirectly caused by the disaster, are difficult to trace back to the initial event1,2. Tropical cyclones (TCs)—that is, hurricanes and tropical storms—are widespread globally and have lasting economic impacts3–5, but their full health impact remains unknown. Here we conduct a large-scale evaluation of long-term effects of TCs on human mortality in the contiguous United States (CONUS) for all TCs between 1930 and 2015. We observe a robust increase in excess mortality that persists for 15 years after each geophysical event. We estimate that the average TC generates 7,000–11,000 excess deaths, exceeding the average of 24 immediate deaths reported in government statistics6,7. Tracking the effects of 501 historical storms, we compute that the TC climate of CONUS imposes an undocumented mortality burden that explains a substantial fraction of the higher mortality rates along the Atlantic coast and is equal to roughly 3.2–5.1% of all deaths. These findings suggest that the TC climate, previously thought to be unimportant for broader public health outcomes, is a meaningful underlying driver for the distribution of mortality risk in CONUS, especially among infants (less than 1 year of age), people 1–44 years of age, and the Black population. Understanding why TCs induce this excess mortality is likely to yield substantial health benefits.

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Will Wealth Weaken Weather Wars?

May 2024

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12 Reads

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2 Citations

AEA Papers and Proceedings

This study estimates the moderating impact of economic development on climate-conflict linkages during 1989-2019 in Africa, the world region that in recent decades has experienced the most armed conflict. We build a spatially disaggregated dataset that merges multiple decades of georeferenced data on climate shocks and conflict events with both local- and national-level measures of economic development to help shed light on the relative importance of local opportunity costs versus state capacity. We find that higher national GDP per capita greatly dampens the conflict risk associated with higher temperatures, suggesting that enhanced state capacity is a key factor.






Citations (39)


... Additionally, evidence suggests that economic shocks can increase the probability of multiple sexual partnerships among young women, further compounding the risk (Dinkelman et al., 2007). Beyond economic factors, environmental shocks can significantly impair cognitive and decision-making abilities (Whitmarsh et al., 2022;Hrabok et al., 2020;Palinkas and Wong, 2020;Doherty and Clayton, 2011;Almås et al., 2019). The psychological distress caused by income insecurity and livelihood losses during droughts can disrupt family planning decisions and reduce the consistent use of contraception. ...

Reference:

What Matters Most? Farmer Preferences for Agroecology Policies in Zimbabwe: A Best-Worst Scaling Experiment
Destructive Behaviour, Judgement, and Economic Decision-making under Thermal Stress
  • Citing Article
  • January 2025

The Economic Journal

... Such documentation may have been lost. New techniques are also being developed to automate georeferencing and reduce dependency on historical documentation (18), creating footprints for each image that greatly increase the efficiency of searching within an archive for coverage of a given location. ...

A machine-learning pipeline for merging and georeferencing very large archives of historical aerial photographs
  • Citing Conference Paper
  • December 2024

... Previous research on climate change and violence has primarily examined violence as an outcome of climate hazards (Burke et al. 2024;von Uexkull and Buhaug 2021;Stechemesser et al. 2021). 1 Within this approach, scholars investigated if, when, and how climate-related hazards shape conflict patterns (Suleymanov 2024;Michelini et al. 2023;Maconga 2023;Hastings and Ubilava 2023;Ide 2023;Cappelli et al. 2023;Mack et al. 2022;Schleussner et al. 2016). Based on this research, there is now scholarly agreement-supported by expert elicitation (Mach et al. 2019), IPCC assessments (IPCC 2023), and broader research syntheses (Beaumont and Coning 2022)-that the climateconflict relationship is highly contextual, socially mediated, and complex. ...

New evidence on the economics of climate and conflict
  • Citing Chapter
  • January 2024

... Examples include georeferenced data on political violence (Sundberg and Melander, 2013;Davies et al., 2024;Raleigh, Kishi and Linke, 2023), aid and development projects (Sexton and Zürcher, 2024;Harris and Posner, 2019), natural disasters (Young and Hsiang, 2024), air pollution (Monogan, Konisky and Woods, 2017), and human mobility (Aiken et al., 2022). ...

Mortality caused by tropical cyclones in the United States

Nature

... First, researchers can subset their data by time period or region to test whether the climate sensitivity varies through time or across space (Hsiang 2016;Kalkuhl & Wenz 2020;Schlenker & Roberts 2009). If sensitivity does not vary, researchers can cautiously conclude that acclimation or adaptation may not be playing a strong role (Burke et al. 2024;Hsiang 2016;Schlenker & Roberts 2009), at least within the observed data and scale. Second, researchers can include a time-period-by-climate interaction in their model to test if climate sensitivity changes over time (Dudney et al. 2021). ...

Are We Adapting to Climate Change?
  • Citing Article
  • January 2024

SSRN Electronic Journal

... In the case of manufacturing, extreme heat hurts value added growth in summers. This is consistent with recent literature showing that extremely hot temperature leads to more worker absenteeism 23 and lower worker productivity in the manufacturing sector (see Rode et al. 2023). Conversely, extremely hot summer helps value-added growth in services, probably in activities that alleviate heat stress (such as indoor services or beach going). ...

Is Workplace Temperature a Valuable Job Amenity? Implications for Climate Change
  • Citing Article
  • January 2024

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Related to these points, the service sector contributes to a large proportion of total employment in advanced countries, thus it is crucial to assess the impact of heat stress on work-related injuries in this sector (Burke et al., 2023b). In general, workers in Services are less likely to experience heat stress due to the lower physical effort required. ...

Quantifying Climate Change Loss and Damage Consistent with a Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases
  • Citing Article
  • January 2023

SSRN Electronic Journal

... We consider a stylized, medium-sized coastal town inspired by many similar examples in coastal Europe. Similar to Depsky et al. (2023), we create standardized functions for the cost of protection against varying storm surge levels and flood risk associated with new urban developments in low-lying areas, but we do so based on topography data from the Danish city Vejle. This is a step towards translating global sea level rise and population development scenarios into local flood protection scenarios and spatially explicit urban development scenarios. ...

DSCIM-Coastal v1.1: an open-source modeling platform for global impacts of sea level rise

... Substantial variation in HDI is observed across districts within Madagascar (Box 2). Applying machine learning methods to satellite data, Sherman et al. (2023) estimate HDI at the district level for all countries including Madagascar. While wealthier districts around the capital and the northeast such as Toamasina I on the east coast had levels of HDI at just under 0.66 in 2019, close to the average among emerging economies (0.75), other districts in the central south, such as the district of Benenintra, face much lower levels of development of around 0.37. ...

Global High-Resolution Estimates of the United Nations Human Development Index Using Satellite Imagery and Machine-Learning

SSRN Electronic Journal

... This approach is thus able to capture often hard-to-model emergent climate risks and inform more tailored approaches to building resilience. robust causal identification based on isolation of system response to the unpredictable component of weather versus more predictable components like cross-sectional averages (23) and longrun trends (8,24). An overarching methodological thrust has thus been toward highly localized estimates based on shocks that are statistically well identified in terms of past exposure but may only capture a small component of projected changes in future climate. ...

Estimating Global Impacts to Agriculture from Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation
  • Citing Article
  • January 2022

SSRN Electronic Journal