Simon Hayley’s research while affiliated with London Business School and other places

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Publications (3)


What Does Rebalancing Really Achieve?
  • Article

February 2016

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148 Reads

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12 Citations

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Simon Hayley

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Dirk Nitzsche

There is now a substantial literature on the effects of rebalancing on portfolio performance. However, this literature contains frequent misattribution between ‘rebalancing returns’, which are specific to the act of rebalancing, and ‘diversification returns’, which can be earned by both rebalanced and unrebalanced strategies. Confusion on this issue can encourage investors to follow strategies that involve insufficient diversification and excessive transactions costs. This paper identifies the misleading claims that are made for rebalanced strategies and demonstrates in theory and by simulation that the apparent advantages of rebalanced strategies over infinite horizons give an inaccurate impression of their performance over finite horizons. Copyright


Market and Style Timing: German Equity and Bond Funds

October 2015

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51 Reads

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8 Citations

European Financial Management

We apply parametric and non-parametric estimates to test market and style timing ability of individual German equity and bond mutual funds using a sample of over 500 equity and 350 bond funds, over the period 1990–2009. For equity funds, both approaches indicate no successful market timers in the 1990–1999 or 2000–2009 periods, but in 2000–2009 the non-parametric approach gives fewer unsuccessful market timers than the parametric approach. There is evidence of successful style timing using the parametric approach, and unsuccessful style timing, particularly in the 2000–2009 period. There is evidence of positive and negative bond timing in the 2000–2009 period.


Diversification Returns, Rebalancing Returns and Volatility Pumping

January 2013

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153 Reads

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5 Citations

SSRN Electronic Journal

It is widely claimed by both academics and practitioners that periodic rebalancing of portfolios to keep asset weights constant will directly boost geometric returns by buying on downticks and selling on upticks. This paper refutes this claim by showing that comparable improvements arise even without rebalancing. This misattribution of returns has important implications for investors since, far from being beneficial, rebalancing is likely to be costly. Specifically, volatility pumping is a strategy which appears to benefit from high asset volatility and large rebalancing trades. We show that the real source of return on such strategies is an implied risk premium on these assets, and that volatility unambiguously reduces the expected geometric return. More generally, we show that although improved diversification raises the expected geometric return of a portfolio, it does not increase the expected terminal wealth.

Citations (3)


... Since the long-term geometric growth rate on an asset is approximated by g =  − 0.5 2 , where  is the mean annual return and  is the annualized return volatility, the reduction in portfolio risk that accompanies diversification should result in improved long-term growth. Indeed, several studies have noted the existence of a "diversification return" (Cuthbertson et al., 2016;Booth and Fama, 1992;Willenbrock, 2011;Erb and Harvey, 2006;Bouchey et al., 2012), and because of this, Feld (1999) suggests that many investors might be better off selling appreciated 2 These market return assumptions are the same as those used in Whitworth (2018) and are generally consistent with the 2024 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions of J.P. Morgan, which are available at shares and taking the capital gains tax hit rather than dealing with the higher volatility inherent in an overly concentrated portfolio. In a simplified analysis of an investor who is fully concentrated in a single appreciated stock, Stein et al. (2000) find that "near-complete diversification" into a lower-volatility portfolio is preferable, "despite a high initial tax cost." ...

Reference:

Should Investors Defer Long-Term Gains in Taxable Stock Portfolios?
What Does Rebalancing Really Achieve?
  • Citing Article
  • February 2016

... During crisis periods, where fluctuations in the stock market dominate, it is imperative for a manager to be capable of altering the structure of his/her portfolio, making it more (less) aggressive prior to market upswings (downturns) in order to maximize (minimize) profits (losses). Considering the prementioned, studies (Treynor and Mazuy, 1966;Henriksson, 1984;Chang and Lewellen, 1984;Sinclair, 1990;Daniel et al., 1997;Jiang, 2003;Cuthbertson et al., 2010Cuthbertson et al., , 2016 concur to a great extent that managers exhibit some stock selection skills, but they fail in general to time the market adequately. The aforementioned studies use monthly or annual observations. ...

Market and Style Timing: German Equity and Bond Funds
  • Citing Article
  • October 2015

European Financial Management

... Recently, the DR was derived by Maseso and Martellini [21] from the stochastic portfolio theory under the name of excess growth rate. The concept of DR as well as its relationships to other diversification concepts have been extensively discussed in finance literature, see [10,17,27,4,7,23,20] and the references therein. In particular, the extensive empirical results reported in [21] shows that maximizing DR of a portfolio may lead to strong out-of-sample performance and hence results in competitive strategy in portfolio construction in certain market conditions. ...

Diversification Returns, Rebalancing Returns and Volatility Pumping
  • Citing Article
  • January 2013

SSRN Electronic Journal