Silvia Peruccacci's research while affiliated with Italian National Research Council and other places

Publications (37)

Chapter
Rainfall causes changes in surface and groundwater dynamics that reduce the slope stability conditions and cause landslides. Such phenomena pose serious threats to population and infrastructures. Hence, the prediction of the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides is a key issue. Evaluation of the relationships between rainfall and landslides can...
Article
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Rockfalls pose a substantial threat to ground transportation, due to their rapidity, destructive potential and high probability of occurrence on steep topographies, often found along roads and railway routes. Approaches for the assessment of rockfall susceptibility range from purely phenomenological methods and statistical methods, suitable for mod...
Preprint
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Rockfalls pose a substantial threat to ground transportation, due to their rapidity, destructive potential and high probability of occurrence on steep topographies, often found along roads and railway routes. Various factors trigger rockfalls, including rainfall and seismic activity, and diverse phenomena affect their probability of occurrence. App...
Preprint
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Landslides are among the most dangerous natural hazards, particularly in developing countries where ground observations for operative early warning systems are lacking. In these areas, remote sensing can represent an important tool to forecast landslide occurrence in space and time, particularly satellite rainfall products that have improved in ter...
Chapter
Hydrogeological hazards now exacerbated by the ongoing climate change pose serious challenges for the safety of the population worldwide. Among the others, the landslide risk can be mitigated by setting up efficient and reliable early warning systems. To date, rainfall thresholds are one of the most used tools to forecast the possible occurrence of...
Article
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Rainfall-triggered shallow landslides represent a major threat to people and infrastructure worldwide. Predicting the possibility of a landslide occurrence accurately means understanding the trigger mechanisms adequately. Rainfall is the main cause of slope failures in Slovenia, and rainfall thresholds are among the most-used tools to predict the p...
Preprint
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Abstract. Rockfalls are frequent and harmful phenomena occurring in mountain ranges, coastal cliffs and slope cuts. Albeit several natural processes concur in their formation and triggering, rainfall is one of the most common causes. The prediction of rock failures is of social significance for civil protection purposes and can rely on the statisti...
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In recent years, Cinque Terre National Park, one of the most famous UNESCO sites in Italy, experienced a significant increase in tourist visits. This unique landscape is the result of the rough morphology of a small coastal basin with a very steep slope and a long-term human impact, mainly represented by anthropic terraces. This setting promotes th...
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In many areas of the world, the prediction of rainfall-induced landslides is usually carried out by means of empirical rainfall thresholds. Their definition is complicated by several issues, among which are the evaluation and quantification of diverse uncertainties resulting from data and methods. Threshold effectiveness and reliability strongly de...
Article
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The design, implementation, management, and verification of landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) are gaining increasing attention in the literature and among government officials, decision makers, and the public. Based on a critical analysis of nine main assumptions that form the rationale for landslide forecasting and early warning, we examine...
Conference Paper
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The definition of empirical rainfall thresholds for the prediction of landslide occurrence is conditioned by several issues. The most debated ones are: the definition of objective and automatic procedures for threshold calculation; the evaluation and quantification of diverse uncertainties resulting from data and methods; the definition of validati...
Article
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The relation between climate change and its potential effects on the stability of slopes remains an open issue. For rainfall induced landslides, the point consists in determining the effects of the projected changes in the duration and amounts of rainfall that can initiate slope failures. We investigated the relationship between fine-scale climate...
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Empirical rainfall thresholds are commonly used to forecast landslide occurrence in wide areas. Thresholds are affected by several uncertainties related to the rainfall and the landslide information accuracy, the reconstruction of the rainfall responsible for the failure, and the method to calculate the thresholds. This limits the use of the thresh...
Article
Satellite rainfall products have been available for many years (since '90) with an increasing spatial/temporal resolution and accuracy. Their global scale coverage and near real-time products perfectly fit the need of an early warning landslide system. Notwithstanding these characteristics, the number of studies employing satellite rainfall estimat...
Chapter
In Italy, landslides are frequent and widespread phenomena triggered chiefly by intense or prolonged rainfall. Individual rainfall events can result in single or multiple slope failures in small areas or in very large regions, causing fatalities and large economic damage. Thus, assessing the rainfall conditions responsible for landslides is importa...
Chapter
In Italy rainfall-induced slope failures occur every year, claiming lives and causing severe economic disruptions. We have designed and implemented a warning system, named SANF (an acronym for national early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides), to forecast the possible occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides. The system is based on: (...
Chapter
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Rainfall-induced landslides are frequent in the Italian Alps, where they cause severe economic damages and loss of life. The prediction of rainfall-induced slope failures is of utmost importance for civil protection purposes and relies upon the definition of physically based or empirical rainfall thresholds. Reliable empirical rainfall thresholds r...
Chapter
The primary trigger of damaging landslides in Italy is intense or prolonged rainfall. Definition of the rainfall conditions responsible for landslides is a crucial issue and may contribute to reducing landslide risk. Criteria for identifying the rainfall conditions that could initiate slope failures are still lacking or uncertain. Expert investigat...
Chapter
In Italy, rainfall-induced shallow landslides are frequent phenomena that cause casualties, damages and economic losses every year. At the national and regional scales, empirical rainfall thresholds can predict the occurrence of multiple rainfall-induced shallow landslides. In this work, we updated an historical catalogue listing 553 rainfall event...
Article
The aim of the present work is to investigate the role exerted by selected environmental factors in the activation of rainfall-triggered shallow landslides and to identify site-specific rainfall thresholds. The study concerns the Italian Alps. The region is exposed to widespread slope instability phenomena due to its geological, morphological and c...
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A process chain for the definition and the performance assessment of an operational regional warning model for rainfallinduced landslides, based on rainfall thresholds, is proposed and tested in a landslide-prone area in the Campania region, southern Italy. A database of 96 shallow landslides triggered by rainfall in the period 2003–2010 and rainfa...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Landslide early warning systems at regional scale are used to warn authorities, civil protection personnel and the population about the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides over wide areas, typically through the prediction and measurement of meteorological variables. A warning model for these systems must include a regional correlation law and...
Article
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The large physiographic variability and the abundance of landslide and rainfall data make Italy an ideal site to investigate variations in the rainfall conditions that can result in rainfall-induced landslides. We used landslide information obtained from multiple sources and rainfall data captured by 2228 rain gauges to build a catalogue of 2309 ra...
Article
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In karst environments, heavy rainfall is known to cause multiple geohydrological hazards, including inundations, flash floods, landslides and sinkholes. We studied a period of intense rainfall from 1 to 6 September 2014 in the Gargano Promontory, a karst area in Puglia, southern Italy. In the period, a sequence of torrential rainfall events caused...
Article
Full-text available
In karst environments, heavy rainfall is known to cause multiple geo-hydrological hazards, including inundations, flash floods, landslides, and sinkholes. We studied a period of intense rainfall from 1 to 6 September 2014 in the Gargano Promontory, a karst landscape in Puglia, southern Italy. In the period, a sequence of torrential rainfall events...
Article
Review of the literature on the reconstruction of the rainfall responsible for slope failures reveals that criteria for the identification of rainfall events are lacking or somewhat subjective. To overcome this problem, we developed an algorithm for the objective and reproducible reconstruction of rainfall events and of rainfall conditions responsi...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Prediction of rainfall-induced landslides can rely on empirical rainfall thresholds. These are obtained from the analysis of past rainfall events that have (or have not) resulted in slope failures. Accurate prediction requires reliable thresholds, which need to be validated before their use in operational landslide warning systems. Despite the clea...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
In the first week of September 2014, the Gargano Promontory (Apulia, SE Italy) was hit by an extreme rainfall event that caused several landslides, floods and sinkholes. As a consequence of the floods, two people lost their lives and severe socioeconomic damages were reported. The highest peaks of rainfall were recorded between September 3rd and 6t...
Article
In Italy, rainfall-induced landslides are recurrent phenomena that cause societal and economic damage. Thus, assessing the rainfall conditions responsible for landslides is important and may contribute to reducing risk. The prediction of rainfall-induced landslides relies primarily on empirical rainfall thresholds. However, the thresholds are affec...
Article
Empirical rainfall thresholds are tools to forecast the possible occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. Accurate prediction of landslide occurrence requires reliable thresholds, which need to be properly validated before their use in operational warning systems. We exploited a catalogue of 200 rainfall conditions that have resulted in a...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
In Italy, the prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides is a fundamental aim for civil protection purposes. In fact, severe events in the past caused economic damage and loss of human lives. For the purpose, we have investigated the rainfall conditions responsible for the occurrence of shallow landslides in Italy. Our work focused on the de...
Conference Paper
Landslides are recurrent geomorphic processes in Italy and represent a serious economic and societal problem. Historical catalogues report thousands of landslide casualties since the 9th Century. The importance to predict landslide occurrence is particularly evident to prevent the effects of rapid mass movements. The mitigation of landslide-related...
Conference Paper
In Italy, rainfall induced shallow landslides are frequent phenomena that cause casualties every year. At the national and regional scales, empirical rainfall thresholds can predict the occurrence of single or multiple rainfall-induced shallow landslides. In this work, we updated a historical catalogue listing 553 rainfall events that triggered 723...

Citations

... The researchers used analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and GIS to obtain the susceptibility maps under various triggering factors. Alvioli et al. (2021) used pixel-by-pixel trajectory network to estimate the rockfall hazard susceptibility in a 17,000 km length corridor of Italian railway network. The authors utilized GIS to demonstrate the susceptibility maps which covered 24,500 km 2 . ...
... Results show that SM2RAIN-ASCAT performs better than the Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG (Early Run version)) (Hou et al., 2014) and the gauge-based Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC (Full Data Reanalysis Version 1)) (Schamm et al., 2015) products in data-scarce mountainous regions (Brocca et al., 2019). Furthermore, the data based on SM2RAIN could have potential applications for early landslide warning systems (Brunetti et al., 2021) and drought monitoring (Koohi et al., 2021) in the data-scarce regions. ...
... These works have considered several variables to identify rainfall characteristics responsible for slope failures, such as cumulative event rainfall, intensity, duration, antecedent rainfall, and various combinations of these. Intensity-duration (ID) thresholds are the most widely used empirical thresholds for studying shallow or rapid landslides, which are usually triggered by short-duration, high-intensity precipitation [17,42,[46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53]. Adopting statistical or probabilistic techniques, empirical rainfall thresholds have been generally defined for different physiographic settings, types of mass movement, and spatial scales (global, regional, local, or single catchment) [13,26,44,48,49,[53][54][55][56][57][58]. ...
... The maximum precipitation takes place during the autumn and winter months, being December the rainiest month. Heavy storms are frequent, associated with intense rainfall and strong winds, with events measuring of up to 75 mm in 24 h (Melillo et al., 2020). Regarding vegetation, the island is the most deforested of the Archipelago with a predominance of scrubs well adapted to arid conditions. ...
... As regards the area of the Cinque Terre National Park, a lot of studies were conducted to produce: (i) a comprehensive landslide inventory map (Raso et al. 2019a) and its interaction with the trail network (Raso et al. 2019a); (ii) a new procedure for effective management of geohydrological risks across the "Sentiero Verde-Azzurro" (Giordan et al. 2020); (iii) a comprehensive geomorphological map (Raso et al. 2020b). Furthermore, this dissertation discusses the different advanced statistical techniques for landslide susceptibilities, such as Machine Learning and Bayesian models. ...
... The efficiency of an empirical rainfall threshold depends on the accuracy of the past rainfall and debris flow data (Guzzetti et al. 2007;Peruccacci et al. 2017;Melillo et al. 2018;Marra 2019;Gariano et al. 2020). Even a small uncertainty (1%) can significantly decrease the performance of threshold-based predictive models (Gariano et al. 2015). ...
... Therefore, early and accurate forecasting of debris flows is of special significance for geohazard prevention and mitigation in Beijing. An intensive storm is well known to be the trigger of debris flows, though numerous factors, such as geological and geomorphological characteristics, compositions of sediments, and vegetation coverage rates, potentially impact debris flows (Iverson 1997b;David-Novak et al. 2004;Guzzetti et al. 2007;Kean et al. 2011;Guzzetti et al. 2020). Thus, capturing the rainfall pattern for debris flow initiation is of special significance in debris flow forecasting (Guzzetti et al. 2008;Baum and Godt 2010). ...
... The efficiency of an empirical rainfall threshold depends on the accuracy of the past rainfall and debris flow data (Guzzetti et al. 2007;Peruccacci et al. 2017;Melillo et al. 2018;Marra 2019;Gariano et al. 2020). Even a small uncertainty (1%) can significantly decrease the performance of threshold-based predictive models (Gariano et al. 2015). ...
... On the other hand, from the curves of recall and precision [71], the increase of precision may lead to the decrease of recall. Finally, we consider that the increased TP with the cost of slightly higher FP is acceptable for emergency rescue [37,72]. For example, we prefer the pro-posed model to detect more landslide pixels without significantly increasing the number of FN pixels (prefer higher recall rather than higher precision) when generating the distribution map of earthquake-triggered landslides. ...
... Several studies incorporated Global Climate Models (GCM) or Regional Climate Models (RCM) into physically-based slope stability models to investigate the effects of climate change on landslides (Ciabatta et al., 2016;Alvioli et al., 2018;Peres and Cancelliere, 2018;Hürlimann et al., 2022). The typical meteorological variables considered in such studies relate to temperature, precipitation or soil moisture estimates based thereon. ...