Sebastian Heiden’s research while affiliated with University of Augsburg and other places

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Publications (12)


Beyond Fundamentals: Investor Sentiment and Exchange Rate Forecasting
  • Article

March 2011

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354 Reads

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17 Citations

European Financial Management

Sebastian Heiden

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This paper examines the relation between investor sentiment and exchange rate movements. We use a unique dataset of private and institutional investors’ sentiment and discover that institutional sentiment significantly predicts returns over medium-term horizons in the EUR/USD market. While institutional investors seem to correctly identify the medium-run direction of this market, private investors’ sentiment emerges as a contrarian indicator at first sight, however, its predictive power fluctuates heavily and is sample dependent. Our results point towards local investors having an informational advantage in exchange rate forecasting. We test for economic relevance with a simple but realistic out-of-sample trading strategy which yields significant results.


On the existence of sports sentiment: The relation between football match results and stock index returns in Europe

November 2009

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429 Reads

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29 Citations

Review of Managerial Science

We test for a relation between football match results and the specific national stock index returns during the period 1990–2006 by means of an event study approach. We employ two different econometric frameworks to cross-check our results and prevent them from being solely model driven: the constant mean model and a two-state Markov-switching market model. Both approaches find no significant results. Consequently, in a modified setup, we control for expectations about probable game results by applying a “surprise” variable, which is computed from betting odds and is integrated into a regression analysis. Again, there does not seem to be a connection between a specific national soccer team’s win or loss and stock index prices. In addition, through a few modifications in our empirical setup, we show how easy it would be to “produce” significant results. Our results are contrary to those of Ashton et al. (Appl Econ Lett 10:783–785, 2003) and Edmans et al. (J Finance 62(4):1967–1998, 2007) and support market efficiency.


Citations (8)


... Pan (2018), utilizing Sentix data across multiple asset classes, concludes that sentiment impacts equity markets but not other markets. The emotion of institutional investors predicts returns in the EUR-USD market over several medium-term timeframes but not in the USD/JPY market, according to Heiden et al. (2013). They achieved this by examining changes in exchange prices for two currency pairs, EUR-USD and USD-JPY, using weekly Sentix indexes. ...

Reference:

An application of a R2 dcomposed linkage method to explore a comtemporal and lead connectedness between investor sentiment and exchange rate dynamics in vietnam
Beyond fundamentals: investor sentiment and exchange rate forecasting
  • Citing Article
  • January 2013

... weather effects on stock returns. Subsequent studies have supported the notion that weather, disasters, lunar phases, cloudiness, temperature, wind, etc. affect stock returns (see, for example, Hirshleifer, 2001;Hirshleifer, and Shumway, 2003;Cao and Wei, 2005;Yuan, Zheng, and Zhu, 2006;Kaplanski, and Levy, 2010;Dehaan, Madsen, and Piotroski, 2017;You, Guo, and Peng, 2017;Xu, and Zhou, 2018;Glogger et al., 2019;Erdemlioglu, and Joliet, 2019;Gao et al., in press). ...

Bearing the Bear: Sentiment-based Disagreement in Multi-criteria Portfolio Optimization
  • Citing Article
  • April 2019

Finance Research Letters

... We identified several approaches to understanding whether sentiment is a significant characteristic: 1) applying econometric cross-sectional and time series models to explain stock returns [19,23], 2) constructing portfolios [22,31,43,44], 3) forecasting stock returns [13], and 4) measuring comovement between investor sentiment and stock returns [2]. ...

Exploiting investor sentiment for portfolio optimization
  • Citing Article
  • Full-text available
  • May 2018

BuR - Business Research

... Second, we propose cryptocurrency market decomposition into various sectors for the purpose of more efficient performance benchmarking. Finally, our work extends the literature on football and finance (Ashton et al. 2011;Bartling et al. 2015;Ehrmann and Jansen 2016;Bauckloh et al. 2019). ...

New evidence on the impact of the English national soccer team on the FTSE 100
  • Citing Article
  • April 2018

Finance Research Letters

... They achieved this by examining changes in exchange prices for two currency pairs, EUR-USD and USD-JPY, using weekly Sentix indexes. According to Schneller et al.'s (2018) analysis of the connection between investor emotion and stock return volatility, investor mood can be used to forecast stock return volatility. ...

Home is Where You Know Your Volatility - Local Investor Sentiment and Stock Market Volatility
  • Citing Article
  • February 2017

German Economic Review

... Biswas and Rajib (2011) considered gold, silver and crude the oil futures of the MCX of India and their study supports the SIH for all three commodity futures. Zwergel and Heiden (2012) studied the German stock market and supported the existence of contemporaneous relation between the return and volume. Srinivasan et al. (2016) studied the Indian stock futures market by taking 25 stock futures contracts and found a positive relationship between return and volume of stock futures. ...

Intraday futures patterns and volume-volatility relationships: The German evidence
  • Citing Article
  • January 2013

Review of Managerial Science

... In order to test this sentiment based explanation, we include various Sentix indices as proxies for variation in investor sentiment in our time-series regressions. 12 Sentix Indices are used to measure investor sentiment in equity (Schmeling 2007), foreign exchange (Heiden, Klein, and Zwergel 2013), and fixed income markets (Afonso et al. 2018). In our analysis we use the Sentix Euro Area Aggregate Index, Sentix Euro Area Breakup Index, Sentix Contagion Index as well as regional (e.g. ...

Beyond Fundamentals: Investor Sentiment and Exchange Rate Forecasting
  • Citing Article
  • March 2011

European Financial Management

... Their research spanned matches from 39 national teams from 1973 to 2004 and found that defeats significantly depressed the respective country's market index. Klein et al. (2009) researched the relation between national team match outcomes and the respective country's market index for World and European Championship matches, including qualifiers, from 1990 to 2006, involving 14 European teams. Contrary to Edmans et al., they found no significant impact of match results on market indexes. ...

On the existence of sports sentiment: The relation between football match results and stock index returns in Europe
  • Citing Article
  • November 2009

Review of Managerial Science