Sebastian Daza’s research while affiliated with University of Wisconsin–Madison and other places

Finding and retaining a job is one of the most challenging problems women confront after being released from prison. Given the dynamic and fluid interactions between legal and illegal work, we argue that to better identify and describe job trajectories after release, we must simultaneously consider disparities in work types and offending behavior. We leverage a unique dataset - the Reintegration, Desistance and Recidivism Among Female Inmates in Chile study- to describe patterns of employment within a cohort of 207 women during the first year after being released from prison. By considering different types of work (i.e., self-employed/employed, legitimate/under-the- table) and including offending as another type of income-generating activity, we adequately account for the intersection between work and crime in a particularly understudied population and context. Our results reveal stable heterogeneity in employment trajectories by job type across respondents but limited overlap between crime and work despite the high levels of marginalization in the job market. We discuss the role of barriers to and preferences for certain types of jobs as possible explanations for our findings.

Although genetic heritability, the environment shared by family members (sociocultural heritability), assortative mating, and fertility differentials by body mass index (BMI) have been proposed as relevant factors that could sustain the obesity pandemic, their theoretical and empirical impact remain unclear. This paper proposes a formal model to assess the robustness and significance of the influences of these factors at the population level. We explore under which conditions assortative mating and fertility differentials can significantly influence obesity prevalence. Examining theoretical scenarios (random mating, entirely endogenous mating), we provide a range of estimates of the potential effect of heritability, mating, and fertility on time trends of adult obesity prevalence at the population level.

The study of GxE is messy. Multiple and challenging obstacles must be overcome to reach a clean estimate, including confounding, selection, insufficient statistical power, model misspecification, measurement error, and difficulties in discriminating between quantitative and qualitative changes when using polygenic scores. In this paper, we focus on one specific challenge: the importance of distinguishing between interaction and dispersion effects in any analysis of gene-environment interactions. We first argue that a critical decision that researchers must make is choosing between indicators of genetic penetrance, slopes of G, or variance decomposition, h2 or correlation. Sec- ond, we use simulation to assess alternative methods to identify discrepancies between slopes and dispersion effects when studying GxE. Based on our results, we suggest a strategy that requires a precise definition of the research question regarding GxE, a strong theoretical justification of the model that specifies GxE, and the full use of simple visualizations and Bayesian distributional models to evaluate variations patterns in slopes and phenotypical variance.

Despite substantial research, the drivers of the widening gap in life expectancy between the rich and poor in the US remain poorly understood. Well-known disparities between life expectancy in the US and peer countries continue to stand out and are only partially accounted for. Recent research in the US suggests that contextual income mobility may play a role in explaining the longevity gap. If this is confirmed, it would indicate the possibility that just as within-country disparities in life expectancy may be partially due to differentials in mobility regimes to which individuals are exposed, so could inter-country contrasts in mobility regimes partially account for the gap between the US and peer countries life expectancy. We argue that this is a promising line of investigation that still requires the identification of precise mechanisms and expected effects. Studies based on aggregate and cross-sectional individual data show an association between US county income mobility and mortality and individual health. However, inferring individual effects from aggregate data can be problematic. Furthermore, assessing exposure to income mobility using the county where respondents currently live or die might overlook selection processes associated with residential mobility. This paper aims to extend previous research by estimating the consequences of average individual exposure to mobility regimes during childhood and adolescence on adult health. Our contribution is a more precise test of the hypothesis that childhood exposure to income mobility regimes may influence health status through behavior later in life and contribute to longevity gaps.

Background: There is mounting evidence for a recent increase of social disparities in chronicdisease prevalence and mortality. However, little is known about how these trends are reflected incombined measures of morbidity, disability and mortality.Method: We use two nationally representative surveys of the Spanish population for the years2008 to 2017 and standard measures of expected duration of disability and illness to assess timetrends and social disparities in mortality, morbidity and expected years lived in disability (DFLE)and with chronic illness (chrDFLE). We provide empirical evidence of shifting trends for thesemeasures. We then decompose these changes into contributions associated with disability, chronicillness and mortality. Finally, we estimate the size of education differentials in DFLE and chrDFLEand evaluate the magnitude and direction of changes of these differentials over time.Results: While the disability based indicator suggests a decrease of expected years withoutdisability for both men and women (expansion of morbidity), the morbidity based indicator showsan increase in time spend free of chronic disease for women but a slight decrease for men. Thedecrease in time spent without disability was observed for all education groups but is particularlymarked for those with low education.Conclusion: We find evidence of an expansion of morbidity in Spain between 2008 and 2017.The bulk of this development is related to increases in time spent with functional limitations overthis period. These patterns occur in conjuncture with growing social disparities in time spend withchronic illness or disability.

Despite substantial research, drivers of the widening gap in life expectancy between rich and poor in the U.S. -- the so-called longevity gap -- remain unknown. Recent research has suggested that contextual income mobility (e.g., county-level socioeconomic mobility) may play an essential role in explaining the longevity gap. Previous studies -- based mostly on aggregate and cross-sectional individual data -- show an association between county income mobility and county mortality and individual's health. However, inferring individual effects from aggregate (county-level) data can be problematic (i.e., ecological fallacy), and measuring exposure to income mobility using the county where respondents currently live or die, might overlook the selection process associated with residential mobility. This paper aims to extend previous research by estimating the effect of average exposure to mobility regimes during childhood and adolescence on adult health using longitudinal data and accounting for selection into counties over time (i.e., residential mobility). We use both the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97) and the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) with geocoded data to assess the link between county-level income mobility (Chetty's estimates), behaviors (smoking) and health conditions and status (self-reported health, BMI, depressive symptoms). Furthermore, we use cohorts optimally match Chetty's estimates of income mobility in the U.S. (1980-1982) and account for selection and time-varying confounders using marginal structural models (MSM). Overall, we provide a more precise test of the hypothesis that childhood exposure to income mobility regimes may determine health status through behavior (i.e., smoking) later in life and contribute to longevity gaps.

Previous research has suggested that incarceration has negative implications for individuals’ well-being, health, and mortality. Most of these studies, however, have not followed former prisoners over an extended period and into older adult ages, when the risk of health deterioration and mortality is the greatest. Contributing to this literature, this study is the first to employ the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to estimate the long-run association between individual incarceration and mortality over nearly 40 years. We also supplement those analyses with data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79). We then use these estimates to investigate the implications of the U.S. incarceration regime and the post-1980 incarceration boom for the U.S. health and mortality disadvantage relative to industrialized peer countries (the United Kingdom).

The last decades’ increase in female incarceration has translated into an increasing number of women being released from prison. Understanding their characteristics and criminal trajectories can enlighten us regarding the different needs of women upon re-entering society after incarceration. Drawing on data from the Reinserción, Desistimiento y Reincidencia en Mujeres Privadas de Libertad en Chile study, this article identifies different profiles among a cohort of 225 women who were released from prison in Santiago, Chile, and demonstrates that significant heterogeneity exists among them in terms of their criminal trajectories and the intervention needs to support their transition out of prison.

Life course criminology has long argued that having a job may act as a turning point in trajectories of offending, moving individuals toward conventional activities. However, while finding and keeping a job are considered one of the key challenges inmates face as they move back into society, there is limited research on the dynamics and trajectories of post-prison employment. Little is also know about whether work characteristics and its relation to crime affect employment trajectories following release. Using data from the study ``Reintegration, desistance and recidivism among female inmates in Chile'' (RDFC), our paper describes trajectories of employment among a cohort of 225 women released from prison in Santiago, Chile and followed during the first year after release. We use sequence analysis to explore monthly patterns of employment considering different types of work (i.e., self-employed / employed, legitimate / under-the-table). To better account for the complex relationship between work and crime, we include offending as another type of income-generating activity. Finally, we use cluster analysis and regression models to explore which individual characteristics are associated with employment and offending trajectories. Our results show a significant level of heterogeneity in employment trajectories by job type, and the importance of considering work and offending to obtain a more complete picture of the dynamics of employment during reentry.