Scott Stern’s research while affiliated with The National Bureau of Economic Research and other places

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Publications (150)


The Startup Cartography Project: Measuring and mapping entrepreneurial ecosystems
  • Article

March 2022

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38 Reads

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35 Citations

Research Policy

RJ Andrews

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Catherine Fazio

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Jorge Guzman

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[...]

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Scott Stern

This paper presents the Startup Cartography Project (SCP), which offers a new set of entrepreneurial ecosystem statistics for the United States from 1988 to 2016. The SCP combines state-level business registration records with a predictive analytics approach to estimate the probability of “extreme” growth (IPO or high-value acquisition) at or near the time of founding for the population of newly-registered firms. The results highlight the ability of predictive analytics to identify high-potential start-ups at founding (using a variety of different approaches and measures). The SCP then leverages estimates of entrepreneurial quality to develop four entrepreneurial ecosystem statistics, including the rate of start-up formation, average entrepreneurial quality, the quality-adjusted quantity of entrepreneurship, and the entrepreneurial ecosystem performance associated with a given start-up “cohort.” These statistics offer sharp insight into patterns of regional entrepreneurship, the correlation of quality (but not quantity) with subsequent regional economic growth and the evolution of entrepreneurial ecosystems over time. The SCP includes both a public-access dataset at the state, MSA, county, and zip code level, as well as an interactive map, the U.S. Startup Map, that allows academic and policy users to assess entrepreneurial ecosystems at an arbitrary level of granularity (from the level of states down to individual street addresses). The SCP and accompanying datasets may be found at: https://www.startupcartography.com/.




Enabling Entrepreneurial Choice

February 2021

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61 Reads

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56 Citations

Management Science

Entrepreneurs must choose between alternative strategies for bringing their idea to market. They face uncertainty regarding both the quality of their idea as well as the efficacy of each strategy. Although entrepreneurs can reduce this uncertainty by conducting tests, any single test conflates the signal of the efficacy of the particular strategy and the quality of the idea. Resolving this conflation requires exploring multiple strategies. Consequently, entrepreneurial choice is enhanced by finding ways to lower the cost of testing multiple strategies, receiving guidance as to the types of tests likely to reduce signal conflation, and optimally sequencing tests based on previous beliefs. This creates a role for judgment that may be provided by trusted third parties such as mentors and investors. We hypothesize that institutions that lower the cost of transmitting and aggregating judgment spur entrepreneurial performance. This paper was accepted by David Simchi-Levi, Special Issue of Management Science: 65th Anniversary.



Choosing Technology: An Entrepreneurial Strategy Approach

November 2020

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152 Reads

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26 Citations

Strategy Science

A central premise of research in the strategic management of innovation is that start-ups are able to leverage emerging technological trajectories as a source of competitive advantage. But, if the potential for a technology is given by the fundamental character of a given technological trajectory, then why does entrepreneurial strategy matter? Or, put another way, if the evolution of technology is largely shaped by the strategic choices entrepreneurs make, then why do technological trajectories exhibit systematic patterns such as the technology S-curve? Taking a choice-based perspective, this paper illuminates the choices confronting a start-up choosing their technology by resolving the paradox of the technology S-curve through a reformulation of the foundations of the technology S-curve. Specifically, we reconceptualize the technology S-curve not as a technological given but as an envelope of potential outcomes reflecting differing strategic choices by the entrepreneur in exploration versus exploitation. Taking this lens, we are able to clarify the role of technological uncertainty on start-up strategy, the impact of constraints on technological evolution, and how technology choice is shaped by the possibility of imitation. Our findings suggest that staged exploration may stall innovation as a result of the replacement effect, increasing the strategic importance of commitment.


The State of American Entrepreneurship: New Estimates of the Quantity and Quality of Entrepreneurship for 32 US States, 1988–2014

November 2020

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108 Reads

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138 Citations

American Economic Journal Economic Policy

Assessing the state of American entrepreneurship requires not simply counting the quantity but also the initial quality of new ventures. Combining comprehensive business registries and predictive analytics, we present estimates of entrepreneurial quantity and quality from 1988 to 2014. Rather than a secular pattern of declining business dynamism, our quality-adjusted measures follow a cyclical pattern sensitive to economic and capital market conditions. Consistent with the role of investment cycles as a driver of high-growth entrepreneurship, our results highlight the role of economic and institutional conditions as a driver of both initial entrepreneurial quality and the scaling of new ventures over time. (JEL G24, G32, L25, L26, M13)


The Impact of State-Level Research and Development Tax Credits on the Quantity and Quality of Entrepreneurship

April 2020

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52 Reads

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24 Citations

Economic Development Quarterly

U.S. states often cite the acceleration of start-up activity as a rationale for the research and development (R&D) tax credit. While a strong empirical base links the R&D tax credit to increased innovation, prior work provides no causal evidence that the credit effects the rate of formation and growth potential of new businesses. This article combines data from the Startup Cartography Project with the Panel Database on Incentives and Taxes to implement a difference-in-differences estimate of the impact of state R&D tax credits on the quantity and quality-adjusted quantity of entrepreneurship. The authors find that the R&D tax credit is associated with a significant long-term impact on both. In contrast, the authors observe that state investment tax credits have no impact on the quantity of entrepreneurship and lead to a marked decline in the rate of formation of growth-oriented start-ups over time. The results indicate the potential of state R&D tax credits to stimulate entrepreneurship.




Citations (79)


... Many of the papers in the special issue directly connect to learning, highlighting ways in which a theorybased, scientific approach shapes and often accelerates the process of learning (Adner and Levinthal 2024, Camuffo et al. 2024a, Chavda et al. 2024, Hannah and Ott 2024, Sorenson 2024, Valentine et al. 2024. We see vast opportunities for continued theoretical and empirical progress, as future work either integrates theory-based learning with traditional approaches to learning or provides important contrasts. ...

Reference:

Theory-Based Decisions: Foundations and Introduction
Theory-Based Entrepreneurial Search
  • Citing Article
  • October 2024

Strategy Science

... 2.5 | Formal institutional affordance: regional innovation readiness Regional innovation readiness pertains to a region's capacity to leverage resources such as talents, information, and knowledge to develop new products, processes, and technologies, particularly in CGI Regions with vital innovation ecosystems provide the necessary infrastructure, networks, and policies that promote DT (Guzman et al., 2024), thus supporting innovation readiness by providing robust talent aggregation capabilities that lead to significant spillover effects (Beynon et al., 2023). Particularly noteworthy is the ability of highly skilled technology professionals within these regions to assimilate and adapt existing technologies and foster the creation of new technological solutions that drive CGI (Sun & Li, 2022). ...

Accelerating Innovation Ecosystems: The Promise and Challenges of Regional Innovation Engines
  • Citing Article
  • January 2024

Entrepreneurship and Innovation Policy and the Economy

... Furthermore, the concept of embedded innovation ecosystems introduces the idea of innovation deeply ingrained within specific industries or regions (Daraojimba et al., 2023). This typology recognizes the unique characteristics and challenges inherent in different sectors, emphasizing the importance of tailoring innovation approaches to the specific needs of these contexts (Guzman et al., 2023). ...

Accelerating Innovation Ecosystems: The Promise and Challenges of Regional Innovation Engines
  • Citing Article
  • January 2023

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Second, regulatory restrictions on banks can create opportunities for fintech-based firms as they make banking services more costly (Buchak et al 2018), or less appealing (Buchak et al 2021) for consumers, Finally, several authors have argued that banks, stuck with legacy technology and data infrastructure, are bound to lag new entrants in the introduction of innovation. The broader literature provides some support for this argument; startups may be more creative in their approach to innovation (Kolev, Haughey, Murray and Stern 2022), incumbents may have disincentives to innovate for fear of cannibalizing existing revenue streams (Christensen 1997, Igami 2017). In addition, it is difficult to adapt business processes to exploiting innovations (Brynjolfsson and Hitt 2000). ...

Of Academics and Creative Destruction: Startup Advantage in the Process of Innovation
  • Citing Article
  • August 2023

Academy of Management Proceedings

... Others have noted that the core business lines and ideas typically remain stable as start-ups grow (S. N. Kaplan, Sensoy, and Strömberg 2009) despite frameworks that encourage them to actively experiment and shift on a tactical level (Ries 2011;Gans, Scott, and Stern 2022). Our robustness check on the Crunchbase descriptions based on Wayback machine data suggests the same pattern. ...

Entrepreneurial strategy: a choice-based approach to entrepreneurship education
  • Citing Chapter
  • December 2022

... These results align with previous studies on technological shocks in science, showing that when barriers to entry are lowered, whether through reduced experimental costs [18] or enhanced access to computational tools [19], the institutional distribution of research can change. However, while previous disruptions were often gradual and temporary, AlphaFold's impact has been rapid and persistent, highlighting the unique role of AI in accelerating changes in research. ...

Of Mice and Academics: Examining the Effect of Openness on Innovation
  • Citing Article
  • February 2016

American Economic Journal Economic Policy

... Artificial intelligence facilitates information and knowledge exchange by accelerating the flow of innovative resources between areas by leveraging spatial spillover effects and overcoming geographical obstacles. Furthermore, green technology innovation can effectively leverage its economic connections and demonstrable impacts, according to Cockburn et al. (2018). This culminates in the establishment of interregional green technology innovation systems, thereby advancing overall green technology innovation. ...

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Innovation: An Exploratory Analysis
  • Citing Chapter
  • January 2019

... The second sub-question to answer is the following: How does the EE affect entrepreneurs? The concept of the EE aims to nurture and expand new companies at relatively low costs to benefit from their long-term growth compared to traditional economic development incentives (Andrews et al., 2022). However, a problem remains: Does the presence of high-level entrepreneurship support in an EE truly reflect the level of support received by entrepreneurs? ...

Reprint of “The Startup Cartography Project: Measuring and mapping entrepreneurial ecosystems”
  • Citing Article
  • June 2022

Research Policy

... Entrepreneurship involves innovation and opportunity identification to create new and unique values in the form of products or services that meet human needs and generate profits (Alam, 2021). According to a study by the National Bureau of Economic Research, innovation and entrepreneurship significantly contribute to economic growth by introducing new technologies, increasing competition, and improving productivity across various sectors (Andrews, et al., 2022). This impact is particularly pronounced in emerging economies, where small-and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) contribute up to 40% of the national income and create seven out of ten jobs globally (World Bank, 2019). ...

The Role of Innovation and Entrepreneurship in Economic Growth
  • Citing Book
  • January 2022

... For a long time, the regional innovation ecosystem has been regarded as a crucial driving force for supporting the sustainable development of the national innovation system and the construction of an innovative country [5], and the development level, dynamic evolution, and connectivity density of its basic constituent elements (including the regional innovation subjects, innovation resources, and innovation environment) are closely linked to the region's achievement of innovative development and high-level technological selfreliance [6][7][8]. From the perspective of the regional innovation niche, the evaluation of and empirical research on the suitability, resilience, symbiosis, health, and operational efficiency of regional innovation ecosystem niches have become a hot research topic in academic circles at home and abroad [9][10][11], and these research perspectives have provided solid theoretical support and specific quantitative standards for exploring the overall development process of regional innovation ecosystems. ...

The Startup Cartography Project: Measuring and mapping entrepreneurial ecosystems
  • Citing Article
  • March 2022

Research Policy