Scott Stern’s research while affiliated with The National Bureau of Economic Research and other places

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Publications (150)


Theory-Based Entrepreneurial Search
  • Article

October 2024

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30 Reads

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1 Citation

Strategy Science

Ankur Chavda

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Scott Stern

How should Theory-based entrepreneurs search for strategies to implement their ideas? The theory-based view of strategy posits that decision makers hold key conjectures about their path to success and use theory to understand and test beliefs underlying those conjectures. This causal framework also has implications for entrepreneurial search: the process by which entrepreneurs uncover strategies to implement their ideas. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian model where entrepreneurs update their beliefs as they conduct entrepreneurial search. We find several optimal behaviors for Theory-based entrepreneurs such as reverting to a previous strategy after finding a relatively poor strategy and continuing to search after finding a relatively good strategy, which are missing when entrepreneurs lack such a theory-based approach. As our theoretical predictions align with examples of successful entrepreneurs, our findings both provide a method to empirically identify Theory-based entrepreneurs and demonstrate the usefulness of applying the theory-based view to entrepreneurial behavior more generally.










Reprint of “The Startup Cartography Project: Measuring and mapping entrepreneurial ecosystems”

June 2022

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15 Reads

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9 Citations

Research Policy

RJ Andrews

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Catherine Fazio

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Jorge Guzman

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[...]

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Scott Stern

This paper presents the Startup Cartography Project (SCP), which offers a new set of entrepreneurial ecosystem statistics for the United States from 1988 to 2016. The SCP combines state-level business registration records with a predictive analytics approach to estimate the probability of “extreme” growth (IPO or high-value acquisition) at or near the time of founding for the population of newly-registered firms. The results highlight the ability of predictive analytics to identify high-potential start-ups at founding (using a variety of different approaches and measures). The SCP then leverages estimates of entrepreneurial quality to develop four entrepreneurial ecosystem statistics, including the rate of start-up formation, average entrepreneurial quality, the quality-adjusted quantity of entrepreneurship, and the entrepreneurial ecosystem performance associated with a given start-up “cohort.” These statistics offer sharp insight into patterns of regional entrepreneurship, the correlation of quality (but not quantity) with subsequent regional economic growth and the evolution of entrepreneurial ecosystems over time. The SCP includes both a public-access dataset at the state, MSA, county, and zip code level, as well as an interactive map, the U.S. Startup Map, that allows academic and policy users to assess entrepreneurial ecosystems at an arbitrary level of granularity (from the level of states down to individual street addresses). The SCP and accompanying datasets may be found at: https://www.startupcartography.com/.


Citations (79)


... Many of the papers in the special issue directly connect to learning, highlighting ways in which a theorybased, scientific approach shapes and often accelerates the process of learning (Adner and Levinthal 2024, Camuffo et al. 2024a, Chavda et al. 2024, Hannah and Ott 2024, Sorenson 2024, Valentine et al. 2024. We see vast opportunities for continued theoretical and empirical progress, as future work either integrates theory-based learning with traditional approaches to learning or provides important contrasts. ...

Reference:

Theory-Based Decisions: Foundations and Introduction
Theory-Based Entrepreneurial Search
  • Citing Article
  • October 2024

Strategy Science

... 2.5 | Formal institutional affordance: regional innovation readiness Regional innovation readiness pertains to a region's capacity to leverage resources such as talents, information, and knowledge to develop new products, processes, and technologies, particularly in CGI Regions with vital innovation ecosystems provide the necessary infrastructure, networks, and policies that promote DT (Guzman et al., 2024), thus supporting innovation readiness by providing robust talent aggregation capabilities that lead to significant spillover effects (Beynon et al., 2023). Particularly noteworthy is the ability of highly skilled technology professionals within these regions to assimilate and adapt existing technologies and foster the creation of new technological solutions that drive CGI (Sun & Li, 2022). ...

Accelerating Innovation Ecosystems: The Promise and Challenges of Regional Innovation Engines
  • Citing Article
  • January 2024

Entrepreneurship and Innovation Policy and the Economy

... Furthermore, the concept of embedded innovation ecosystems introduces the idea of innovation deeply ingrained within specific industries or regions (Daraojimba et al., 2023). This typology recognizes the unique characteristics and challenges inherent in different sectors, emphasizing the importance of tailoring innovation approaches to the specific needs of these contexts (Guzman et al., 2023). ...

Accelerating Innovation Ecosystems: The Promise and Challenges of Regional Innovation Engines
  • Citing Article
  • January 2023

SSRN Electronic Journal

... Second, regulatory restrictions on banks can create opportunities for fintech-based firms as they make banking services more costly (Buchak et al 2018), or less appealing (Buchak et al 2021) for consumers, Finally, several authors have argued that banks, stuck with legacy technology and data infrastructure, are bound to lag new entrants in the introduction of innovation. The broader literature provides some support for this argument; startups may be more creative in their approach to innovation (Kolev, Haughey, Murray and Stern 2022), incumbents may have disincentives to innovate for fear of cannibalizing existing revenue streams (Christensen 1997, Igami 2017). In addition, it is difficult to adapt business processes to exploiting innovations (Brynjolfsson and Hitt 2000). ...

Of Academics and Creative Destruction: Startup Advantage in the Process of Innovation
  • Citing Article
  • August 2023

Academy of Management Proceedings

... Others have noted that the core business lines and ideas typically remain stable as start-ups grow (S. N. Kaplan, Sensoy, and Strömberg 2009) despite frameworks that encourage them to actively experiment and shift on a tactical level (Ries 2011;Gans, Scott, and Stern 2022). Our robustness check on the Crunchbase descriptions based on Wayback machine data suggests the same pattern. ...

Entrepreneurial strategy: a choice-based approach to entrepreneurship education
  • Citing Chapter
  • December 2022

... These actions led to the proliferation of start-ups, which today account for about 20% of employment across OECD countries (OECD, 2020c) and for almost onehalf of productivity growth in the United States (Klenow and Li, 2020). As small firms might be more susceptible to the costs arising from uneven information flows, which have been shown to affect innovation (Murray et al., 2016), understanding which factors, including language assignment and its mediators, contribute to policy take-up can help enhance the delivery of public policies directed towards young innovative enterprises. ...

Of Mice and Academics: Examining the Effect of Openness on Innovation
  • Citing Article
  • February 2016

American Economic Journal Economic Policy

... However, with the development of AI technology, high-skilled labor may also be replaced, which could, to some extent, reduce income inequality [16]. Iain et al. contended that AI contributes to the economy by restructuring the innovation process [17], and Kromann et al. also asserted that AI could profoundly influence the process of technical innovation and economic development by enhancing the efficiency of technological innovation [18]. ...

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Innovation: An Exploratory Analysis
  • Citing Chapter
  • January 2019

... The second sub-question to answer is the following: How does the EE affect entrepreneurs? The concept of the EE aims to nurture and expand new companies at relatively low costs to benefit from their long-term growth compared to traditional economic development incentives (Andrews et al., 2022). However, a problem remains: Does the presence of high-level entrepreneurship support in an EE truly reflect the level of support received by entrepreneurs? ...

Reprint of “The Startup Cartography Project: Measuring and mapping entrepreneurial ecosystems”
  • Citing Article
  • June 2022

Research Policy

... Entrepreneurship involves innovation and opportunity identification to create new and unique values in the form of products or services that meet human needs and generate profits (Alam, 2021). According to a study by the National Bureau of Economic Research, innovation and entrepreneurship significantly contribute to economic growth by introducing new technologies, increasing competition, and improving productivity across various sectors (Andrews, et al., 2022). This impact is particularly pronounced in emerging economies, where small-and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) contribute up to 40% of the national income and create seven out of ten jobs globally (World Bank, 2019). ...

The Role of Innovation and Entrepreneurship in Economic Growth
  • Citing Book
  • January 2022

... For a long time, the regional innovation ecosystem has been regarded as a crucial driving force for supporting the sustainable development of the national innovation system and the construction of an innovative country [5], and the development level, dynamic evolution, and connectivity density of its basic constituent elements (including the regional innovation subjects, innovation resources, and innovation environment) are closely linked to the region's achievement of innovative development and high-level technological selfreliance [6][7][8]. From the perspective of the regional innovation niche, the evaluation of and empirical research on the suitability, resilience, symbiosis, health, and operational efficiency of regional innovation ecosystem niches have become a hot research topic in academic circles at home and abroad [9][10][11], and these research perspectives have provided solid theoretical support and specific quantitative standards for exploring the overall development process of regional innovation ecosystems. ...

The Startup Cartography Project: Measuring and mapping entrepreneurial ecosystems
  • Citing Article
  • March 2022

Research Policy