Sandra Contreras’s research while affiliated with Pontifical Xavierian University and other places

During the 2012–2016 drought in La Guajira, Colombia, child mortality rates rose to 23.4 out of 1000. Most of these children belonged to the Wayuu indigenous community, the largest and one of the most vulnerable in Colombia. At the municipal level, this study found a significant positive correlation between the average child mortality rate and households with a monthly income of less than USD 100, the number of people without access to health insurance, being part of the indigenous population, being illiterate, lacking sewage systems, living in rural areas, and large households with members younger than 5 years old and older than 65 years old. No correlation was found with households without access to a water source. The stepwise regression analysis showed that households with a monthly income of less than USD 100, no members older than 65 years old, but several children younger than 5 years old, account for 90.4% of the child mortality rate. This study concludes that, if inhabitants had had better incomes or assets, as well as an adequate infrastructure, they could have faced the drought without the observed increase in child mortality.

Wayuu community in Colombia constitutes about half of the population of department of La Guajira, located in the northeast of the country. According to the National Department of Statistics in Colombia (DANE), between 2008 and 2013, about 4,151 children have died in La Guajira. Among these, 278 deaths were due to undernourishment. The shortage of food is a consequence of bad water management policies and loss of crops due to the prolonged drought that started in 2012. In year 2006, the upper course of river Rancheria was altered while building the El Cercado dam. This further reduced the access to water for these communities located in the middle and lower course of the river. The effects of climate change had deteriorated their conditions. The severity of the current situation and the corruption involved in handling this issue has attracted unparalleled criticism from within the country and internationally. Some institutions even equate it to genocide and demanding more immediate action from the government to protect this community. Our investigation has shown that there is no awareness in the scientific community about this situation. This has motivated us to investigate further and present the basic status quo that will be helpful to build the capacity in addressing this problem methodologically. To build such a capacity, we use spatial analysis to develop spatial indices for each settlement like the proportion of population that benefits from the current water sources and to identify the populations that lack access to water. We expect to determine, with participation from the Wayuu community, adaptation measures for both short and long-term access to water.

The internal armed conflict in Colombia reduces the resilience of the community to face the consequences of climate phenomena such as La Niña, which occurred in Colombia, between 2010 and 2011. I selected a case study area in Colombia based on previous studies in the topic of deforestation due to illegal crops. Correlation and regression analysis are employed to demonstrate the relationship between the rates of deforestation, the number of affected households and the events of violence. The statistical analysis explores the rate of deforestation between 2002 and 2007, the number of affected households due to La Niña phenomenon in 2010-2011, and the number of events related with armed violence occurred between 2012 and 2013. A significant correlation (+0.865) exists between the number of La Niña affected households, and the number of violent events two years later. No correlation exists between the rate of deforestation, neither with the number of affected households, nor with the events of violence. Moreover, we demonstrated that the number of households affected accounts for 74.8% in the number of events related with armed violence. In conclusion, the problem is not the hazard or the intensity of the phenomenon, the real problem is the low resilience of the communities affected by La Niña that are simultaneously involved in the internal conflict of Colombia. Communities involved in forced displacement are not able to construct social capital, in order to develop capacity to anticipate, respond to, and recover from hydro-meteorological events related to climate change, or any other natural phenomena.