Sally Brailsford's research while affiliated with University of Southampton and other places

Publications (143)

Article
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The global burden of cervical cancer remains a concern and higher early mortality rates are associated with poverty and limited health education. However, screening programs continue to face implementation challenges, especially in developing country contexts. In this study, we use a mixed-methods approach to understand the reasons for no-show beha...
Article
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Background: Despite being a preventable disease, cervical cancer continues to be a public health concern, affecting mainly lower and middle-income countries. Therefore, in Bogotá a home-visit based program was instituted to increase screening uptake. However, around 40% of the visited women fail to attend their Pap smear test appointments. Using t...
Article
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Discrete-event simulation (DES) has been recognised for many years as a powerful tool to support the commissioning and resourcing of health and social care services, due to its ability to capture real-world variability. However, the complex interactions between two distinct but clearly related processes, disease progression and care provision, can...
Article
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Background Frailty is a common condition in older adults and has a major impact on patient outcomes and service use. Information on the prevalence in middle-aged adults and the patterns of progression of frailty at an individual and population level is scarce. To address this, a cohort was defined from a large primary care database in England to de...
Article
Literature reviews over five decades have reported the paucity of examples of OR methods being routinely used to support decision-making in health and social care. This paper presents insights from an independent evaluation of a project intended to overcome some of the barriers to implementation by establishing a “community of practice” in Kent (En...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background: Frailty is a common condition in older adults and has a major impact on patient outcomes and service use. Information on the prevalence in middle-aged adults and the patterns of progression of frailty at an individual and population level is scarce. To address this, a cohort was defined from a large primary care database in England to d...
Article
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Simulation models, in particular System Dynamics (SD) models, can be used in a group modelling setting to communicate, integrate, learn, collaborate, organize knowledge and derive new insights. Such models can play the roles of conceptual integrators, representations, learning or predictive tools. In this ethnographic study of two in-depth SD group...
Article
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Background With the challenges that dengue fever (DF) presents to healthcare systems and societies, public health officials must determine where best to allocate scarce resources and restricted budgets. Constrained optimization (CO) helps to address some of the acknowledged limitations of conventional health economic analyses and has typically been...
Conference Paper
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p>This paper examines the role of a simulation model being developed within a group model building process. The paper argues that the model can be conceptualized as a being an agent in a model building group which influences, shapes and challenges the thinking of the group members. The paper presents two case studies of group model building project...
Preprint
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Low attendance levels in medical appointments have been associated with poor health outcomes and efficiency problems for service providers. To address this problem, healthcare managers could aim at improving attendance levels or minimizing the operational impact of no-shows by adapting resource allocation policies. However, given the uncertainty of...
Article
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Background and aims Dengue fever is a major public health problem in tropical/subtropical regions. Prior economic analyses have predominantly evaluated either vaccination or vector-control programmes in isolation and do not really consider the incremental benefits and cost-effectiveness of mixed strategies and combination control. We estimated the...
Article
Low attendance levels in medical appointments have been associated with poor health outcomes and efficiency problems for service providers. To address this problem, healthcare managers could aim at improving attendance levels or minimizing the operational impact of no-shows by adapting resource allocation policies. However, given the uncertainty of...
Article
Objectives The aim of the study was to model dementia prevalence and outcomes within an ageing population using a novel hybrid simulation model that simultaneously takes population-level and patient-level perspectives to better inform dementia care service planning, taking into account severity progression variability. Study design This is a simul...
Chapter
Hybrid simulation is particularly useful in population health, since healthcare systems are characterized by both dynamic and stochastic complexity and the use of one single simulation approach may result in an oversimplified model that fails to address the real problem. This chapter presents the foundational concepts of hybrid simulation modeling...
Article
Dementia is an increasing problem in today’s ageing society, and meeting future demand for care is a major concern for policy-makers and planners. This paper presents a novel hybrid simulation model that simultaneously takes population-level and patient-level perspectives to calculate the numbers of patients at different stages of disease severity...
Article
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This paper presents a framework for understanding and improving the process of simulation model building involving a group of domain experts, classifying the different roles the model may play at various stages of its development. The framework consists of four different “object roles”, defined along two dimensions: a functional dimension (boundary...
Conference Paper
Aim To improve planning for the growing older population and the complex care needs of people with dementia, it is important to recognise the variability of individual cognitive and functional decline and associated care costs. However, many studies exploring care demand simplify varied patient trajectories by partitioning dementia patients into se...
Conference Paper
p>The last 10 years have witnessed a marked upsurge of attention on Hybrid Simulation (HS). The majority of authors define HS as a joint modelling approach which includes two or more simulation approaches (mainly Discrete Event Simulation, System Dynamics and Agent Based Simulation). Whilst some may argue that HS has been in existence for more than...
Article
Hybrid simulation (defined as a modelling approach that combines two or more of the following methods: discrete-event simulation, system dynamics, and agent-based simulation) has experienced near-exponential growth in popularity in the past two decades. However, a large proportion of the academic literature on hybrid simulation is found in computer...
Article
Full-text available
Hybrid simulation (defined as a modelling approach that combines two or more of the following methods: discrete-event simulation, system dynamics, and agent-based simulation) has experienced near-exponential growth in popularity in the past two decades. However, a large proportion of the academic literature on hybrid simulation is found in computer...
Article
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Background The topology of the blood supply chain network can take different forms in different settings, depending on geography, politics, costs, etc. Many developed countries are moving towards centralized networks. The goal for all blood distribution networks, regardless of topology, remains the same: to satisfy demand at minimal cost and minima...
Article
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate inter-organizational designs for care–cure conditions in which low-risk patients are cared for in specialized care organizations and high-risk patients are cared for in specialized cure organizations. Performance impacts of increasing levels of integration between these organizations are analyzed....
Chapter
Chlamydia is the most common sexually transmitted infection in the UK and constitutes a major public health problem. The UK Department of Health is phasing in a National Chlamydia Screening Programme (NCSP) but there is concern that blanket screening of the entire at risk population will simply add extra burden to the already overstretched health e...
Article
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Production planning in the blood supply chain is a challenging task. Many complex factors such as uncertain supply and demand, blood group proportions, shelf life constraints and different collection and production methods have to be taken into account, and thus advanced methodologies are required for decision making. This paper presents an integra...
Article
In the blood supply chain, several alternative technologies are available for collection and processing. These technologies differ in cost and efficiency: for example, collection by apheresis requires very expensive machines but the yield of blood products is considerably greater than whole blood collection. Blood centre managers are faced with the...
Chapter
This case study is concerned with analysing policies for managing the blood inventory system in a typical UK hospital supplied by a regional blood centre. The objective of the project is to improve procedures and outcomes by modelling the entire supply chain for that hospital, from donor to recipient. The supply chain of blood products is broken do...
Chapter
Healthcare systems have been a popular application area for simulation modeling for more than sixty years. This chapter focuses on discrete-event simulation (DES) models in which the simulated objects in such models are human beings (usually patients), and argue that this is an area where it is very important to capture behavior. Two widely used ps...
Conference Paper
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Hybrid Simulation (HS) is not new. However there is contention in academic discourse as to what qualifies as HS? Is there a distinction between multi-method, multi-paradigm and HS? How do we integrate methods from disciplines like OR and computer science that contribute to the success of a M&S study? How do we validate a hybrid model when the whole...
Conference Paper
Zambia has over 1.9 million HIV-infected people and is one of the countries hardest hit by the HIV pandemic. Limited information exists on the long-term survival and economic costs of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the country. The study we describe here has two aims: 1. Provide better estimates for the long-term survival of people on ART; 2. Fore...
Article
Ordinal variables are very often objects of study in health sciences. However, due to the lack of dissemination of models suited for ordinal variables, users often adopt other practices that result in the loss of statistical power. In this tutorial, different models from the family of logistic regression models are introduced as alternatives to han...
Article
This paper presents a structured review of the literature on quantitative modelling for the blood product supply chain. This is a widely researched topic, dating back to the 1960s, and several other reviews have been published over the years. However, this paper presents new relevant information for researchers, not only by including more recent mo...
Article
This paper describes a model that has been used to inform government policy in Sri Lanka. The model has two components, representing supply and demand for dental-care services. The supply-side component (the dental workforce model) uses system dynamics to represent the career progression of dentists from recruitment and training at the University D...
Conference Paper
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Modeling is a creative activity known and practiced by most in industry, government, and academia. A model is a construct of language coded using different technologies - from print and physical media to computer-generated synthetic environments. The activity of modeling is so central to human cognition, that we must ask ourselves whether modeling...
Article
Agent-based modeling (ABM) has gained great popularity in recent years, especially in application areas where human behavior is important, because it opens up the possibility of capturing such behavior in great detail. Hybrid models which combine ABM with discrete-event simulation (DES) are particularly appealing in service industry applications. H...
Conference Paper
The provision of state funded social care for older adults in the UK is driven by the concept of need. Individuals who have care requirements that surpass a threshold are eligible to receive care. A wide range of methods are used to ascertain need, but the ability to conduct simple activities of daily living (ADL), such as bathing and dressing, is...
Article
Decision-making processes often contain more than one objective. In technology selection in the blood collection processes, the cost related to the collection technology and the amount of donors required to meet the demand are in conflict. In the same way, in the blood supply chains decisions become more complex when features of the system such as...
Article
Social networks characterise the set of relationships amongst a population of social agents. As such, their structure both constrains and is constrained by social processes such as partnership formation and the spread of information, opinions and behaviour. Models of these coevolutionary network dynamics exist, but they are generally limited to spe...
Article
Background: There is debate worldwide about the best way to manage increased healthcare demand within ageing populations, particularly rising rates of unplanned and avoidable hospital admissions. Objectives: To understand health and social care professionals' perspectives on barriers to admission avoidance throughout the admissions journey, in p...
Article
The aim of this chapter is to discuss whether the choice of simulation methodology - discrete-event simulation or system dynamics - is purely the personal preference of the modeller, or whether there are identifiable features of certain problems that make one approach intrinsically superior to the other. Although from a methodological standpoint th...
Article
Simulation models and simulation modelling are used in many different ways. This chapter pays particular attention to the use of models in group model building projects where a group of domain experts or other stakeholders come together to build a model together with a modelling expert. It draws attention to how models can function as an 'interface...
Chapter
Discrete-event simulation (DES) has been a core subject on MSc programmes in operational research (OR) or management science (MS) from the 1970s onwards, and is a standard technique in the ‘OR/MS toolkit’. This is the introductory chapter of Discrete-Event Simulation and System Dynamics for Management Decision Making, which provides an integrated o...
Article
a b s t r a c t This paper presents a composite model in which two simulation approaches, discrete-event simulation (DES) and system dynamics (SD), are used together to address a major healthcare problem, the sexually transmitted infection Chlamydia. The paper continues an on-going discussion in the literature about the potential benefits of linkin...
Article
At the 2010 OR Society Simulation Workshop, there was a lively panel discussion entitled ‘Discrete-event simulation is dead, long live agent-based simulation!’, which was subsequently written up as a position paper for the Journal of Simulation (Siebers et al, 2010). This paper continues that discussion and, to quote Mark Twain, argues that rumours...
Chapter
At the 2010 OR Society Simulation Workshop, there was a lively panel discussion entitled ‘Discrete-event simulation is dead, long live agent-based simulation!’, which was subsequently written up as a position paper for the Journal of Simulation (Siebers et al, 2010). This paper continues that discussion and, to quote Mark Twain, argues that rumours...
Article
This paper describes a system dynamics model of the dental workforce in Sri Lanka. The model represents the career progression of dentists, from recruitment and training at the university dental school, through different types of employment through to retirement. The aim of this model, after it was augmented with a separate model depicting future d...
Article
Dengue fever is a vector-borne disease prevalent in tropical and subtropical regions. It is an important public health problem with a considerable and often under-valued disease burden in terms of frequency, cost and quality-of-life. Recent literature reviews have documented the development of mathematical models of dengue fever both to identify im...
Conference Paper
Social networks characterise the set of relationships amongst a population of social agents. As such, their structure both constrains and is constrained by social processes such as partnership formation and the spread of information, opinions and behaviour. Models of these coevolutionary network dynamics exist, but they are generally limited to spe...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Grand challenges are significant themes that can bring together researchers to bring significant change to a field. In 2012 a new initiative to restart the debate on major grand challenges for modeling and simulation (M&S) began. Leading researchers have presented M&S Grand Challenges in areas such as ubiquitous simulation, high performance computi...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This paper describes the process of developing a hybrid simulation model for a disease called age-related macular degeneration (AMD), a common cause of sight loss in people aged over 65. The model is implemented in the software AnyLogic, and combines discrete-event and agent-based simulation. Embedded in each agent there is also an individual compa...
Article
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One root cause for problems in healthcare is that the design of the services provided is in urgent need of improvement. This paper investigates organizational designs for care-cure conditions, i.e. conditions where patients have a need for care (general and preventive monitoring and basic medical support) and episodically have a need for cure (medi...
Article
The aim of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies for diseases transmitted by the Aedes albopictus mosquito (the “Asian tiger”) and spread by human travel. This mosquito, which has become established in southern Europe in recent years, is a vector for many diseases. For example, an outbreak of chikungunya, hitherto regard...
Article
Full-text available
This paper describes the role of mathematical modelling in the design and evaluation of an automated system of wearable and environmental sensors called PAM (Personalised Ambient Monitoring) to monitor the activity patterns of patients with bipolar disorder (BD). The modelling work was part of an EPSRC-funded project, also involving biomedical engi...
Article
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This paper addresses a key issue in the health OR literature, namely the apparent failure of OR modelling to become embedded and widely implemented within healthcare organisations. The research presented here is a case study to evaluate the adoption of one particular simulation modelling tool, Scenario Generator (S:G), which was developed by the SI...
Conference Paper
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This paper describes a system dynamics model for social care, developed in collaboration with a local authority in England, as part of the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council Care Life Cycle project based at the University of Southampton. The model was populated with data from a wide range of sources, local and national. We presen...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This paper presents a hybrid simulation model for the management of an eye condition called age-related macular degeneration, which particularly affects the elderly. The model represents not only the detailed clinical progression of disease in an individual, but also the organization of the hospital clinic in which patients with this condition are...
Article
Simulation modelling is widely used in many industries in order to assess and evaluate alternative options and to test strategies or operating rules which are too complex to be modelled analytically. Simulation software has developed its capability in parallel with the growth in computing power since the 1980’s. However in practice, the results fro...
Article
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This paper compares the results of broad-range literature reviews over the period 1997–2006 on the application of simulation in three sectors: commerce, defence, and health-care. The main purpose of these reviews is to see whether there are lessons to learn from the first two sectors to be applied in the health-care sector. Results of our reviews s...
Article
The aim of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies for diseases transmitted by the Aedes albopictus mosquito (the “Asian tiger”) and spread by human travel. This mosquito, which has become established in southern Europe in recent years, is a vector for many diseases. For example, an outbreak of chikungunya, hitherto regard...
Article
This paper addresses a key issue in the health OR literature, namely the apparent failure of OR modelling to become embedded and widely implemented within healthcare organizations. The research presented here is a case study to evaluate the adoption of one particular simulation modelling tool, Scenario Generator, which was developed by the SIMUL8 C...
Article
Full-text available
This paper introduces a major new cross-disciplinary research project that looks at the UK health and social care system, as part of an ambitious, broader initiative to apply methods from complexity science to a range of key global challenges. This particular project aims to develop new, integrated models for the supply and demand of both health an...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This paper addresses the broad topic area of cross-paradigm simulation modeling with a focus on the discrete-event, system dynamics and agent-based paradigms. It incorporates contributions from four panel members with diverse perspectives and areas of expertise. First, each paradigm is described and definitions are presented. The difference between...
Article
The European Working Group “Operational Research Applied to Health Services” (ORAHS) is one of the domain specific EURO Working Groups organized by EURO – the European Association of Operational Research Societies. In this paper we report on the development of ORAHS as a platform for OR in health, and analyse the papers presented at meetings over t...