S. S. Biryukova’s scientific contributions

The article presents scenario modeling of the effects of an increase in the minimum wage on the population income and the poverty rate and gap in Russia. The authors use data from the Rosstat Survey of Population Income and Participation in Social Programs and consider three scenarios for increasing the minimum wage ranging from 6.3% (actual increase in 2023) to a radical increase to a value corresponding to 1.5 subsistence levels of a working-age citizen. The estimates accounting for a number of assumptions about the reaction of the labor market show that an increase in the minimum wage in a given range leads to a weak or moderate increase in per capita income, poverty gap, and poverty rate. Even within the radical scenario, the reduction in poverty rate ranges from –16% to –19% of the initial percentage, and the reduction in the total income deficit ranges from –12% to –17%. The main factors limiting the impact of increasing the minimum wage on the monetary poverty rate are related to the structure of Russian households. On the one hand, two thirds of Russian workers with the lowest wages live in households that are not poor by formal criteria. On the other hand, individual earnings above the poverty line may not be sufficient to overcome the poverty of the entire household if it includes minor children.

The role of social protection in supporting people’s well‑being, reducing poverty and inequality is difficult to overestimate in stable times, but its importance increases especially in times of crisis, as confirmed by the global shock of the COVID‑19 pandemic. Under the conditions of increasing uncertainty, a social protection system turns into a “safety cushion” — a macroeconomic and sociopolitical stabilizer. The purpose of the article is to show, based on the analysis of the main trends in the development of the Russian social protection system and considering the challenges of the current moment, possible alternative choices in its development in the mid‑term period. Authors use a broad definition of the social protection system, which includes non‑contributory measures of social protection (social assistance), contributory and non‑contributory pensions, minimum wages, and social services (long‑term care). The article contributes to the literature on economics and public administration, which focuses on social policy in times of economic crises. The article discusses the turn in social protection associated with the adoption of the national development goals in 2018. The authors analyze to what extent has the coronavirus pandemic affected the main challenges and problems facing Russian social protection; what were the key decisions in the field of anticrisis support for the population, and how they affected indicators of poverty and inequality. The article also presents recent research results on changes in public attitudes toward social protection as well as issues of using the time‑budget as a component of a comprehensive assessment of the population ’ s quality of life. In conclusion, the article discusses lessons which can be learned from the experience of the pandemic‑related crisis for the future development of the Russian social protection system, including in the conditions of turbulence that have arisen in 2022.