Ryan Hisner’s research while affiliated with University of Cape Town and other places

Since SARS-CoV-2 BA.5 (Omicron) emerged and spread in 2022, Omicron lineages have markedly diversified. Here we review the evolutionary trajectories and processes that underpin the emergence of these lineages, and identify the most prevalent sublineages. We discuss the potential origins of second-generation BA.2 lineages. Simple and complex recombination, antigenic drift and convergent evolution have enabled SARS-CoV-2 to accumulate mutations that alter its antigenicity. We also discuss the potential evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 in the future.

Molnupiravir, an antiviral medication widely used against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), acts by inducing mutations in the virus genome during replication. Most random mutations are likely to be deleterious to the virus and many will be lethal; thus, molnupiravir-induced elevated mutation rates reduce viral load 1,2 . However, if some patients treated with molnupiravir do not fully clear the SARS-CoV-2 infections, there could be the potential for onward transmission of molnupiravir-mutated viruses. Here we show that SARS-CoV-2 sequencing databases contain extensive evidence of molnupiravir mutagenesis. Using a systematic approach, we find that a specific class of long phylogenetic branches, distinguished by a high proportion of G-to-A and C-to-T mutations, are found almost exclusively in sequences from 2022, after the introduction of molnupiravir treatment, and in countries and age groups with widespread use of the drug. We identify a mutational spectrum, with preferred nucleotide contexts, from viruses in patients known to have been treated with molnupiravir and show that its signature matches that seen in these long branches, in some cases with onward transmission of molnupiravir-derived lineages. Finally, we analyse treatment records to confirm a direct association between these high G-to-A branches and the use of molnupiravir.

We report the genomic analysis of a highly divergent SARS-CoV-2 sample obtained in October 2022 from an HIV+ patient with presumably long-term COVID-19 infection. Phylogenetic analysis indicates that the sample is characterized by a gain of 89 mutations since divergence from its nearest sequenced neighbor, which had been collected in September 2020 and belongs to the B.1.1 lineage, largely extinct in 2022. 33 of these mutations were coding and occurred in the Spike protein. Of these, 17 are lineage-defining in some of the variants of concern (VOCs) or are in sites where another mutation is lineage-defining in a variant of concern, and/or shown to be involved in antibody evasion, and/or detected in other cases of persistent COVID-19; these include some “usual suspects,” such as Spike:L452R, E484Q, K417T, Y453F, and N460K. Molecular clock analysis indicates that mutations in this lineage accumulated at an increased rate compared to the ancestral B.1.1 strain. This increase is driven by the accumulation of nonsynonymous mutations, for an average dN/dS value of 2.2, indicating strong positive selection during within-patient evolution. Additionally, there is reason to believe that the virus had persisted for at least some time in the gastrointestinal tract, as evidenced by the presence of mutations that are rare in the general population samples but common in samples from wastewater. Our analysis adds to the growing body of research on evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in chronically infected patients and its relationship to the emergence of variants of concern.

We report the genomic analysis of a highly divergent SARS-CoV-2 sample obtained in October 2022 from an HIV+ patient with presumably long-term COVID-19 infection. Phylogenetic analysis indicates that the sample is characterized by a gain of 89 mutations since divergence from its nearest sequenced neighbor, which had been collected in September 2020 and belongs to the B.1.1 lineage, largely extinct in 2022. 33 of these mutations were coding and occurred in the Spike protein. Of these, 17 are lineage-defining in some of the variants of concern (VOCs) or are in sites where another mutation is lineage-defining in a variant of concern, and/or shown to be involved in antibody evasion, and/or detected in other cases of persistent COVID-19; these include some “usual suspects,” such as Spike:L452R, E484Q, K417T, Y453F, and N460K. Molecular clock analysis indicates that mutations in this lineage accumulated at an increased rate compared to the ancestral B.1.1 strain. This increase is driven by the accumulation of nonsynonymous mutations, for an average dN/dS value of 2.2, indicating strong positive selection during within-patient evolution. Additionally, there is reason to believe that the virus had persisted for at least some time in the gastrointestinal tract, as evidenced by the presence of mutations that are rare in the general population samples but common in samples from wastewater. Our analysis adds to the growing body of research on evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in chronically infected patients and its relationship to the emergence of variants of concern.

Molnupiravir, an antiviral medication that has been widely used against SARS-CoV-2, acts by inducing mutations in the virus genome during replication. Most random mutations are likely to be deleterious to the virus, and many will be lethal. Molnupiravir-induced elevated mutation rates have been shown to decrease viral load in animal models. However, it is possible that some patients treated with molnupiravir might not fully clear SARS-CoV-2 infections, with the potential for onward transmission of molnupiravir-mutated viruses. We set out to systematically investigate global sequencing databases for a signature of molnupiravir mutagenesis. We find that a specific class of long phylogenetic branches appear almost exclusively in sequences from 2022, after the introduction of molnupiravir treatment, and in countries and age-groups with widespread usage of the drug. We calculate a mutational spectrum from the AGILE placebo-controlled clinical trial of molnupiravir and show that its signature, with elevated G-to-A and C-to-T rates, largely corresponds to the mutational spectrum seen in these long branches. Our data suggest a signature of molnupiravir mutagenesis can be seen in global sequencing databases, in some cases with onwards transmission.