Rustem V. Shaikhutdinov's research while affiliated with California Institute of Technology and other places

Publications (11)

Article
Full-text available
The focus of this paper is to demonstrate the application of a recently developed Bayesian state estimation method to the recorded seismic response of a building and to discuss the issue of model selection. The method, known as the particle filter, is based on stochastic simulation. Unlike the well-known extended Kalman filter, it is applicable to...
Technical Report
Full-text available
From 2002 to 2004 (years five and six of a ten-year funding cycle), the PEER Center organized the majority of its research around six testbeds. Two buildings and two bridges, a campus, and a transportation network were selected as case studies to “exercise” the PEER performance-based earthquake engineering methodology. All projects involved inte...
Article
A seismic risk assessment is often performed on behalf of a buyer of commercial buildings in seismically active regions. One outcome of the as- sessment is that a probable maximum loss (PML) is computed. PML is of limited use to real-estate investors as it has no place in a standard financial analysis and reflects too long a planning period. We int...
Article
We examine seismic risk from the commercial real estate investor's viewpoint. We present a methodology to estimate the uncertain net asset value (NAV) of an investment opportunity considering market risk and seismic risk. For seismic risk, we employ a performance-based earthquake engineering methodology called assembly-based vulnerability (ABV). Fo...
Article
In a modern performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) design framework, component fragility functions are used to relate parameters of structural response to damage. Since common structural response parameters are coupled to structural member properties, the usage of fragility functions in damage analysis after performing the structural analy...
Article
Full-text available
The focus of this report is real-time Bayesian state estimation using nonlinear models. A recently developed method, the particle filter, is studied that is based on Monte Carlo simulation. Unlike the well-known extended Kalman filter, it is applicable to highly nonlinear systems with non-Gaussian uncertainties. Recently developed techniques that i...
Conference Paper
Most seismic risk assessments for economic decision-making of commercial buildings are based on a risk metric called probable maximum loss (PML) that is associated with losses from an earthquake shaking severity with a 500-year return period. For various reasons, PML is a poor metric for economic performance assessment. This paper introduces an ana...
Article
This paper examines the question of which sources of uncertainty most strongly affect the repair cost of a building in a future earthquake. Uncertainties examined here include spectral acceleration, ground-motion details, mass, damping, structural force-deformation behavior, building-component fragility, contractor costs, and the contractor's overh...
Article
Abstract A major component,of a building-specific seismic loss analysis is the estimation of repair costs in future earthquakes. A number of uncertain variables contribute to the uncertainty in these cost estimates. Among these are ground-shaking intensity, details of the ground motion, mass, damping, and force-deformation behavior, component fragi...
Article
A methodology is presented for making property investment decisions using loss analysis and the principles of decision analysis. It proposes that the investor choose among competing investment alternatives on the basis of the certainty equivalent of their net asset value which depends on the uncertain discounted future net income, uncertain disc...
Article
This report presents a methodology for establishing the uncertain net asset value, NAV, of a real-estate investment opportunity considering both market risk and seismic risk for the property. It also presents a decision-making procedure to assist in making real-estate investment choices under conditions of uncertainty and risk-aversion. It is shown...

Citations

... For example, the threshold displacement for benchmounted equipment is defined as the displacement where the equipment slide, fall off, and get damaged. Different studies performed experimental and analytical studies on bench-mounted laboratory equipment [6,8,15,17,34,35]. And it was found that the displacement threshold for bench-mounted laboratory equipment in the range of [5][6][7][8][9][10] cm at μ being between [0.2-0.45]. ...
... Wen & Kang (2001) used a minimum LCC based approach for design decision making under single and multiple hazards. Beck et al. (2003) provided a simplified approach for the estimation of S-LCC based on approximate expected annualized loss. Ellingwood & Wen (2005) proposed a risk-benefit based decision making approach for mid-America using example of steel moment frame. ...
... To further modify the results of Cases 1 and 3, a detailed literature review was conducted to identify more representative damage fragility models and loss distributions from resources other than FEMA P-58. Journal papers and technical reports (Black et al., 2010;Bradley, 2009;Filiatrault et al., 2010;Fiorino et al., 2019;Khakurel et al., 2019;Muto et al., 2008;Petrone et al., 2015;Porter et al., 2002a;Porter et al., 2002b) were considered for possible fragility and loss models, however, no possible fragilities matching the details of the diagonal let-in wood bracings were found in any resource. As a consequence, the same bracing used in Case 1 was used in the next steps as well, and this indicates a shortcoming of the literature on damage fragilities for wood bracings. ...
... Uno de los parámetros de mayor importancia para los tomadores de decisiones (propietarios de las edificaciones, inversionistas, entes gubernamentales) son las llamadas pérdidas anuales esperadas (EAL), las cuales representan una estimación del promedio de las pérdidas económicas esperadas debido a eventos sísmicos durante un año (Porter, Beck andShaikhutdinov, 2004)(Bullock et al., 2019). Las pérdidas anuales esperadas se obtienen de la combinación de las pérdidas esperadas de un modelo tomando en cuenta diferentes niveles de intensidad sísmica asociadas a sus respectivas tasas medias anuales de excedencia y se expresan regularmente como un porcentaje del costo total de reemplazo de la edificación. ...
... stiffness, damping or hysteretic properties) of a dynamic system, but also the unknown inputs [14,15,16]. Alternatively, particle-based methods [17,18], with the Unscented Kalman filter (UKF) constituting an efficient and widely used option [19,20] among them, can operate directly on the nonlinear equations of motion and propose a sample-or particle-based representation of the sequence of probability densities [21,22]. These approaches are also known as sequential Monte Carlo samplers [23,24], such as the standard Particle Filter (PF), which have been successfully applied to both structural and complex mechanical systems [25,26]. ...
... The damage probability matrix method (Onur et al., 2006;Yepes-Estrada et al., 2016) is one of them. In addition, the capacity spectrum method, applying the pushover analysis approach, was presented by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (2013), while many other researchers worked with the dynamic time history analysis method for the life-cycle cost assessment of buildings such as the ones performed by Porter et al. (2004), Lagaros (2007), Mitropoulou et al. (2011), Gencturk et al. (2016) Loli et al. (2017), Sharmin et al. (2018), Rabonza and Lallemant (2019), and Noureldin and Kim (2021). Besides, in another field, several other research works have been published with the focus on the application of vibration control systems in the reduction of buildings' life-cycle cost (Park et al., 2004;Taflandis, 2012, 2015;Mitropoulou and Lagaros, 2016). ...
... The different levels of damage states, like intact, light, moderate, and extensive, are classified as learned damage patterns in this research. Uncertainty of different modeling parameters such as mass, damping, and material strength has been evaluated in seismic performance predictions [62,63]. This study utilizes CCD as a sampling method within the criteria of the DOEs methodologies for evaluating the effects of modeling uncertainty. ...
... The particle filter can be used in the temperature -emissivity estimation by modifying the Eq. (6.5) and including the emissivity in the state vector [31]. Letx k be this new state vector at time k: ...
... This possibility might be particularly useful for the integration of more sophisticated numerical models to simulate structural response, a feature that is often necessary for the assessment of damage in non-structural components or for vulnerability in terms of fatality rates (e.g. Beck et al. 2002;Formisano and Marzo 2017;Zhang 2019). ...