Rui Marinheiro’s research while affiliated with Instituto Superior Técnico and other places

This study explores the application of Temporal Fusion Transformers (TFTs) to improve the predictability of hourly potential hydropower production for a small run–of–the–river hydropower plant in Portugal. Accurate hourly power forecasts are essential for optimizing participation in the spot electricity market, where deviations incur penalties. This research introduces the novel application of the TFT, a deep–learning model tailored for time series forecasting and uncovering complex patterns, to predict hydropower production based on meteorological data, historical production records, and plant capacity. Key challenges such as filtering observed hydropower outputs (to remove strong, and unpredictable human influence) and adapting the historical series to installed capacity increases are discussed. An analysis of meteorological information from several sources, including ground information, reanalysis, and forecasting models, was also undertaken. Regarding the latter, precipitation forecasts from the European Centre for Medium–Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) proved to be more accurate than those of the Global Forecast System (GFS). When combined with ECMWF data, the TFT model achieved significantly higher accuracy in potential hydropower production predictions. This work provides a framework for integrating advanced machine learning models into operational hydropower scheduling, aiming to reduce classical modeling efforts while maximizing energy production efficiency, reliability, and market performance.