Ronen Mansuri’s research while affiliated with Tel Aviv University and other places

Current COVID-19 screening efforts mainly rely on reported symptoms and the potential exposure to infected individuals. Here, we developed a machine-learning model for COVID-19 detection that uses four layers of information: (i) sociodemographic characteristics of the individual, (ii) spatio-temporal patterns of the disease, (iii) medical condition and general health consumption of the individual and (iv) information reported by the individual during the testing episode. We evaluated our model on 140 682 members of Maccabi Health Services who were tested for COVID-19 at least once between February and October 2020. These individuals underwent, in total, 264 516 COVID-19 PCR tests, out of which 16 512 were positive. Our multi-layer model obtained an area under the curve (AUC) of 81.6% when evaluated over all the individuals in the dataset, and an AUC of 72.8% when only individuals who did not report any symptom were included. Furthermore, considering only information collected before the testing episode—i.e. before the individual had the chance to report on any symptom—our model could reach a considerably high AUC of 79.5%. Our ability to predict early on the outcomes of COVID-19 tests is pivotal for breaking transmission chains, and can be used for a more efficient testing policy.

Current efforts for COVID-19 screening mainly rely on reported symptoms and potential exposure to infected individuals. Here, we developed a machine-learning model for COVID-19 detection that utilizes four layers of information: 1) sociodemographic characteristics of the tested individual, 2) spatiotemporal patterns of the disease observed near the testing episode, 3) medical condition and general health consumption of the tested individual over the past five years, and 4) information reported by the tested individual during the testing episode. We evaluated our model on 140,682 members of Maccabi Health Services, tested for COVID-19 at least once between February and October 2020. These individuals had 264,516 COVID-19 PCR-tests, out of which 16,512 were found positive. Our multilayer model obtained an area under the curve (AUC) of 81.6% when tested over all individuals, and of 72.8% when tested over individuals who did not report any symptom. Furthermore, considering only information collected before the testing episode – that is, before the individual may had the chance to report on any symptom – our model could reach a considerably high AUC of 79.5%. Namely, most of the value contributed by the testing episode can be gained by earlier information. Our ability to predict early the outcomes of COVID-19 tests is pivotal for breaking transmission chains, and can be utilized for a more efficient testing policy.