Rodion Balakin’s research while affiliated with Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation and other places

Objective : to identify trends in the development of the Russian economy during the new anti-Russian sanctions. To this end, the paper analyzes the impact of the new sanctions on the budgetary sphere, the development of economic sectors and industries and the Russian regions. Methods : the work uses data from the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), the Federal Treasury, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation (Ministry of Economic Development), the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia), the Federal Tax Service (FTS), the Federal Customs Service (FCS), the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS). For their analysis, graphical, tabular, and analytical methods are used. Results : the new anti-Russian sanctions caused significant changes in the structure of the Russian exports and trade balance. The reduced inflow of foreign currency put significant pressure on the ruble exchange rate, which created inflation risks. The devaluation was restrained by the Bank of Russia new currency regime. The favorable situation in the energy market in 2022 led to an increase in budget revenues. In 2023, economic growth resulted from an active fiscal policy supported by moderate monetary expansion. However, it was achieved at the cost of an increase in the budget deficit and public debt. The response of different industries and regions to the sanctions shock was heterogeneous. The development of certain adaptive strategies by economic entities, as well as the response of the authorities played an important role. The new sanctions regime prompted a revision of the state economy regulation paradigm. Dirigisme manifested itself in the increase of state orders, subsidies and other support for protected industries with one-time withdrawals of opportunistic revenues of big business. Monetary and fiscal policy gradually acquired a hybrid character. Direct and indirect price regulation became an important instrument of state regulation during the sanctions. Scientific novelty : it consists in a comprehensive analysis of development trends during the new anti-Russian sanctions, their impact on foreign economic parameters, budgetary sphere, financial system, development of Russian industries and regions. Practical significance : statistical information on various aspects of the Russian economy development during the new antiRussian sanctions was summarized and analyzed. The work can be useful to researchers studying the functioning of the Russian economy under sanctions, as well as to businesspersons for assessing the risks, opportunities and prospects of their businesses development, and to government agencies for forming an effective anti-crisis policy.

The article presents a review of publications devoted to the approaches to assessing the impact of external shocks on the economy in general and on certain aspects of taxation in particular. It considers both studies that assess this impact by analyzing macroeconomic indicators (less often — budget indicators) and building econometric models (mainly SVAR and VAR models are used in this case), and studies in which various authors propose their own indicators to assess this impact (most often they are either sustainability indicators or stress indicators). Special attention is paid to publications the subject of which is the impact of new challenges on the tax system. A separate block includes publications in which the above issues are considered in relation to the Russian tax system. These are not only scientific articles on the topic, but also documents of international organizations, such as the International Monetary Fund, OECD, World Bank, etc. In addition, the article provides an overview of publications of foreign scientific institutes and research centers. Sanctions imposed on the economy of the Russian Federation are a particular case of an external shock. Thus, a review of publications assessing the impact of new challenges (by the example of sanctions) on the tax system of the Russian Federation is presented. The authors conclude that to assess the impact of new challenges on the tax system it is more advisable to use indicators based on statistical tax reporting.

The subject of the study is the revenues from the corporate property tax in the context of types of economic activity and regions. The purpose of the study is to determine the role of corporate property tax in the structure of tax revenues in terms of economic activity to identify areas for potential growth of revenues from this tax and determine the fiscal and economic consequences of the transition to the cadastral valuation of real estate with the appropriate development of proposals to improve the taxation of real estate. The relevance of the research is due to the fact that the article is devoted to a little researched topic — analysis of property taxation in the Russian Federation in the economic activity context. The main method of research is the calculation of indicators characterizing the structure and dynamics of the corporate property tax and other property taxes, analysis and synthesis of the obtained results and their inter-sectoral comparison. As a result , a comprehensive view of the situation with the tax on the property of organizations in the context of economic activity is presented, which serves as a basis for finding bottlenecks in this part, identifying the factors that hinder the expansion of property taxation and other promising areas for research in this area. The interpretation of the obtained results in terms of the role of corporate property tax and other property taxes at different levels of the budget system should be attributed to the main conclusions . The cross-section allowed us to identify points for the potential growth of tax revenues from the corporate property tax in terms of objects, for which the tax base is the cadastral value.

Objective : to identify the presence/absence of transmission of financial contagion between sectors of the Russian economy during the 2020-2021 pandemic. Methods : the study is based on data on the inter-sessional average daily profitability of six industry indices of the Russian trading system for the period from 01.01.2019 to 23.02.2022. Using the calculation of the sliding coefficient of variation for the average industry index of the Russian trading system and the sliding growth rate of coronavirus infection, three periods of pandemic shock were identified: short-term (acute phase of the pandemic), medium-term (covering the first and second waves of infection), and long-term (up to the announcement of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine). Intersectoral contamination was identified on the basis of strengthening the relationships between the profitability of industry assets by analyzing three distribution points: the correlation coefficient adjusted for heteroscedasticity (Forbes–Rigobon test), tests for co-asymmetry and co-kurtosis of the distribution. Results : estimates of the scale and direction of financial contagion between the Russian economic sectors during the pandemic were obtained. Firstly, they indicate an increase in confirmed cases of intersectoral contagion in the medium and long term, which indicates a “long-term trace” of the pandemic. Secondly, the number of contagions increases closer to higher distribution points. Thirdly, the main branches of the Russian economy (metallurgy and oil industry), contrary to expectations, turned out to be the least connected with other branches of the Russian economy during the pandemic. The telecommunications sector demonstrated the greatest propensity to transmit contagion. The conclusion about the consumer sphere and trade being the most exposed to contagion is rather expected. Scientific novelty : for the first time, estimates of intersectoral financial contagion for the Russian economy during the pandemic have been obtained, which indicate the presence of both short-term and long-term effects of the pandemic, as well as the strengthened role of certain industries (in particular, the telecommunications industry) in the transmission of contagion under the economy digitalization. Practical significance : the data obtained can be useful in managing the financial stability of individual industries during pandemic-type crises.

The paper examines the relationship between financial and industrial stresses in the Russian economy in 2006–2019, mediated by the monetary policy of the state. Stress indices are constructed on the basi of a number of financial market and industrial sector indicators of the Russian economy. These variables are aggregated using the principal component analysis. Stress indices are calculated as the moving difference between the standard deviation and the mean value of the first principal component. The graphical and correlation analysis confirms that industrial stress in the Russian economy grows during financial crises, accompanied by an increase in credit interest rates (including the key rate) and the scale of refinancing of credit institutions by the Bank of Russia. Based on the construction of ARDL models, we obtained convincing evidence of the positive impact of both a short-term increase in the key interest rate and a longer increase in the scale of refinancing of credit institutions by the Bank of Russia on the reduction of financial and industrial stresses in the Russian economy, which, however, appears in different time intervals. We concluded that the combined management of industrial and financial stresses, taking into account their interaction and sensitivity to different instruments, requires the search for the optimal combination of monetary regulation methods. The results obtained may be useful in conducting a prudent monetary policy in periods of financial instability.

The monograph is devoted to a comprehensive study of modern economic crises. The theories of cycles and crises are considered, the methodology and applied methods of crisis research are revealed. Special attention is paid to the analysis of the impact of crises on the development of the Russian economy. For researchers and teachers, students and postgraduates of higher educational institutions, employees of public authorities, managers and specialists of enterprises, for everyone interested in the current state and prospects of development of the Russian economy.

Relevance. In recent years, the Russian economy has faced the global challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and unprecedented sanctions. Understanding how the tax systems of Russian regions respond to these external shocks is crucial for identifying critical stress sources affecting budgets at various levels. Research objective. This study aims to assess and compare tax revenue stress across the federal districts of the Russian Federation, considering different levels of the budget system, and to identify the underlying sources of this stress. Data and methods. The study relies on official data from the Federal Tax Service of the Russian Federation on tax revenues to federal and regional budgets in the federal districts. The analysis covers monthly data from January 2013 to December 2022. The stress index was calculated by measuring the difference between the moving standard deviation and the mean of the annual tax revenue growth rate, with a lag of 1 month. The methodology for decomposing the sources of tax revenue stress was also tested. Results. Over-time assessments of stress indices for tax revenues to federal and regional budgets were obtained for the Russian Federation and its federal districts. The varying levels, dynamics, and budgetary distribution of tax revenue stress across federal districts are explained by differences in the structure, growth rates, and volatility of various taxes, as well as their correlations in these districts. Decomposition of federal and regional tax stress showed the unique role of mineral extraction tax and profit tax as stress amplifiers during crises, while in stable periods, they contribute significantly to stress reduction. The study also establishes the distinct roles of federal districts in intensifying or alleviating overall tax revenue stress during pandemic and sanctions shocks, as well as periods of relative stability. Conclusions. This research demonstrates the importance of assessing and identifying sources of tax revenue stress in regions. Such insights help identify vulnerabilities and reserves for enhancing the resilience of regional and federal budgets through the diversification of regional economic systems and adjustments to tax system rules in response to changing external conditions.

The study is focused on estimating the fiscal implications of conversion to taxation of corporate property on the basis of cadastral value. The relevance of the work is determined by the importance of forming a stable tax base for property tax in the context of the conversion to taxation based on the cadastral value of the corporate property tax. The purpose of the study is to estimate the implications of a complete conversion to the use of cadastral value as the only source of formation of the tax base for corporate property tax. The study aggregates information from the state dataset «Data on cadastral value of real estate properties by territorial affiliation» of Rosreestr (The Federal Service for State Registration, Cadastre and Cartography). The research procedure consists in the fact that, based on the processing of this information, the total cadastral value and the number of capital construction properties in the regions of the Russian Federation are characterized. At the same time, the hypothesis of the research is that a complete conversion to taxation of corporate property on the basis of cadastral value results in the growth of tax revenue from corporate property tax. The characteristics of the monetary and numerical parameters of such a potential tax base are given and the implications of a complete conversion to the taxation of corporate property on the basis of cadastral value are estimated. The resulting estimate is compared with actual revenues, and a conclusion is made about the positive effect of a full conversion to the use of cadastral value as the tax base for corporate property tax. The theoretical relevance consists in the fact that the possibility of the direct use of data of the state dataset for formation of information on the tax base on corporate property tax is critically analyzed. The practical relevance is determined by the calculation of the potential growth of corporate property tax revenues in connection with the full conversion to the calculation of the tax base only on the basis of cadastral value as per the Rosreestr dataset.