Robin Sayers’s scientific contributions

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Publications (1)


A case study of capture-recapture methodology using scrapie surveillance data in Great Britain
  • Article

April 2005

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27 Reads

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32 Citations

Preventive Veterinary Medicine

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Robin Sayers

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Kumar Sivam

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[...]

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John W Wilesmith

We applied capture-recapture methodology (CRC) to data from three surveillance sources (statutory notification, abattoir survey (AS) and fallen stock (FS) survey) to estimate the number of holdings infected with scrapie in Great Britain and to assess the sensitivity of the surveillance network. Between January 1, 2002 and March 31, 2003, 144 holdings were identified by the three sources. Using CRC modelling techniques, we estimated a minimum lower bound for the total number of holdings infected as 642. A biologically plausible positive dependence between the statutory reporting and the fallen stock survey was found statistically significant. The sensitivity of the three sources combined was very low. The integration of the three overlapping sources provided a better understanding of the interactions within the surveillance network. However, the scarcity of the data and reduced overlapping among sources only allowed for very cautious inferences to be drawn about the true proportion of scrapie affected holdings in the national population. Future surveys and surveillance activities should be planned such that the resulting data can be used more effectively as part of CRC modelling approaches.

Citations (1)


... The CR approach to quantitatively evaluate the reporting of diseases and sensitivity of surveillance systems has already been applied in the field of veterinary epidemiology (Böhning et al., 2011;Del Rio Vilas et al., 2005;Pekova et al., 2017;Vergne, Calavas, et al., 2012;. However, our study is the first to apply CR methods in the context of wildlife disease notification, and it is the first published study using data retrieved from the OIE-WAHIS system. ...

Reference:

Sensitivity of an international notification system for wildlife diseases: A case study using the OIE-WAHIS data on tularemia
A case study of capture-recapture methodology using scrapie surveillance data in Great Britain
  • Citing Article
  • April 2005

Preventive Veterinary Medicine