Robert J. Nicholls’s research while affiliated with University of East Anglia and other places

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Publications (667)


Perspective on Regional Sea-level Change and Coastal Impacts
  • Article
  • Full-text available

November 2024

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95 Reads

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Robert J. Nicholls

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[...]

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Abby Sullivan
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Fig. 2. Guidelines for minimum finished floor levels for structural accommodation in (a) France, (b) England, (c) Scotland, (d) Ireland. A minimum floor level is defined as the combination of an extreme sea level, a climate change allowance and a freeboard, or margin of error. Climate change allowances differ between countries and are detailed in Table 3. Northern Ireland lacks a national standard to accommodate for future coastal flooding by raising floor levels. Wales's planning policy only recommends that residential developments be designed to remain flood free during a 200-year tidal flood.
Fig. 3. Local planning documents containing structural accommodation measures across France, the UK and Ireland (as of March 2024). Each country or region is annotated with the percentage of the extended coastal floodplain with a document containing structural accommodation measures and the estimated population concerned (in parentheses). Only 8 % of the extended floodplain is covered in Northern Ireland, representing less than 10 k people. France.
Fig. 4. Building-level flood hazard mitigation strategies in France in order of preference (adapted from MEDDE and METL, 2012).
Fig. 5. Flood risk prevention plans along the French coast. Plans that did not refer specifically to coastal flooding are shown in dashed red. PPRLs are regionalised into (a) the North, (b) the Atlantic, and (c) the Mediterranean coasts. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
Fig. 6. Examples of structural accommodation measures in France. (a) Refuge added to a coastal single-storey house in Vendée, an area that was affected by Xynthia on the Atlantic coast. (b) The seaside neighbourhood of the "Plage des Chalets" on the Mediterranean coast comprises over 1,000 holiday houses elevated on stilts. Although the first elevated houses date back to the 19th century, most were destroyed during World War II and rebuilt in the 1950 s. A small dike between the houses and the sea also protects the neighbourhood. This is an example of informal accommodation developed to avoid coastal flood hazards before national guidelines existed.

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A comparative assessment of accommodation strategies based on elevated buildings for coastal adaptation

September 2024

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212 Reads

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1 Citation

Climate Risk Management


Vulnerable and vital: Intermittent estuaries deserve global attention

August 2024

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65 Reads

Intermittently open/closed estuaries provide important ecosystem services but are often overlooked in coastal–catchment research and management. These estuaries are highly vulnerable to human/climate disturbances due to their tendency to close off from the ocean, yet their processes/dynamics remain under-researched. This study maps the global distribution of at least 2,245 intermittent estuaries, whose catchments currently support 55 million people, with projections rising to 101 million by 2100. Assessing three decades of scholarly articles indicated that only 7% of these sites have been studied. Academic literature on intermittent estuaries accounted for 0.5% of the total literature on all estuaries, despite these systems representing 4–5% of the estimated total number of global estuaries. Significant research gaps exist in Asia, South America, and Africa, where the largest, most susceptible populations reside. 90% of the existing research on intermittent estuaries is conducted in (southern) Africa (42%), Oceania (35%), and North America (14%), predominantly through domestic efforts. From 1992 to 2023, 60% of the research focused on physio-chemical and eco-hydro-geomorphological topics, with minimal attention to ecosystem services, climatic/human disturbances, and management. Our assessment underscores the need for increased focus on intermittent estuaries and suggests strategies to promote international collaborations, including leadership from intergovernmental organisations.


Assessing Current Coastal Subsidence at Continental Scale: Insights From Europe Using the European Ground Motion Service

August 2024

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212 Reads

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3 Citations

Beside climate‐change‐induced sea‐level rise (SLR), land subsidence can strongly amplify coastal risk in flood‐prone areas. Mapping and quantifying contemporary vertical land motion (VLM) at continental scales has long been a challenge due to the absence of gridded observational products covering these large domains. Here, we fill this gap by using the new European Ground Motion Service (EGMS) to assess the current state of coastal VLM in Europe. First, we compare the InSAR‐based EGMS Ortho (Level 3) with nearby global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) vertical velocity estimates and show that the geodetic reference frame used to calibrate EGMS strongly influences coastal vertical land velocity estimates at the millimeter per year level and this needs to be considered with caution. After adjusting the EGMS vertical velocity estimates to a more updated and accurate International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF2014), we performed an assessment of VLM in European low elevation coastal flood plains (CFPs). We find that nearly half of the European CFP area is, on average, subsiding at a rate faster than 1 mm/yr. More importantly, we find that urban areas and populations located in the CFP experience a near −1 mm/yr VLM on average (excluding the uplifting Fennoscandia region). For harbors, the average VLM is even larger and increases to −1.5 mm/yr on average. This demonstrates the widespread importance of continental‐scale assessments based on InSAR and GNSS to better identify areas at higher risk from relative SLR due to coastal subsidence.






(a) Four major research clusters (divisions) of climate change research including climate variability, ocean/air/land temperature, and climatic and hydrological cycles and models (blue division), paleoclimatology, geology, habitat distribution, and biodiversity (red division), greenhouse gases, environmental impacts, and supply/demand of food, water, and energy (dark gray division), and climate policy, adaptation, mitigation, public perception/engagement, and sustainability (light gray division). (b) Top 30 keywords in climate change articles during 1990–2009 (bottom left panel), 2010–2015 (bottom canter panel), and 2016–2021 (bottom right panel). In (b), Green, blue, and red arrows and numbers in brackets indicate positive, zero, and negative displacement of keywords between two consecutive time periods highlighting potential shifts in climate change research topics.
(a) A network‐view of the 21 sub‐clusters of thematically connected research streams in climate change literature identified through patterns of document co‐citation (i.e., documents that are frequently co‐cited). In (a), larger sub‐clusters contain higher numbers of cited references and influential articles and are presented with smaller cluster IDs. The extent of activities across diverse climate science disciplines in (b) 1990, (c) 2000, (d) 2010, and (e) 2020 highlights research sub‐clusters that were most active during each cross‐section of time. In (a–e), each node depicts an individual reference, node size is proportional to the number of local citations (i.e., exclusive citations within the field of climate science) to the cited references, and links (i.e., connecting lines) indicate instances of co‐citation. In (a), each sub‐cluster is represented with a unique color theme whereas in (b–e), sub‐clusters are only visualized as a background map to better highlight when and how each sub‐cluster was active/inactive and/or had interactions with neighboring sub‐clusters over time. In (a–e), nodes which are overlaid by a red ring (circle) mark those cited references that their local citation burst (i.e., duration and strength) is recorded. In (a–e), additional sub‐clusters with less than 100 cited references within them were eliminated from visualizations (see Section 2).
(a) A temporal map of co‐cited references of the 21 research sub‐clusters of climate change science indicating times and rates at which individual references have received citations as well as the duration and age of knowledge foundation for each sub‐cluster. In (a), each reference is indicated by a node and connecting lines represent instances of co‐citation. The size of each node shows the number of local citations to a cited reference and red rings marked references that a burst in their local citations was recorded. (b) Citing articles and their corresponding citation counts in climate change research sub‐clusters highlighting their extent of temporal evolutions as well as younger/older and most/least active topics during 1990–2021. In (b), research activity of each sub‐cluster can be quantified over time according to its number of citing articles during each year as well as the total number of citation counts recorded from citing articles to the cited references of each sub‐cluster.
(a) Temporal patterns of international, domestic, and all (domestic plus international) climate change publications for the top 32 countries with cumulative documents (articles) during 1990–2021. (b) Continental contribution to climate change science during 1990–2009, 2010–2015, 2016–2021, and 1990–2021. Percentage and number of documents (articles) and citation counts within the top 20 countries, with most climate change related publications during (c) 1990–2009, (d) 2010–2015, and (e) 2016–2021 periods. In (c‐e), pie charts indicate the proportion of the top 20 countries producing global articles (blue pies) and receiving citations (red pies). In (d‐e), green, gray, and red arrows and numbers in brackets indicate positive, zero, and negative displacement of countries between two consecutive time periods. In (a–e), all documents (articles) from all contributing nations are considered, and some documents maybe counted multiple times.
Climate change science is evolving toward adaptation and mitigation solutions

March 2024

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241 Reads

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6 Citations

Wiley interdisciplinary reviews: Climate Change

Synthesizing the extensive and ever‐growing climate change literature is becoming increasingly challenging using conventional review processes, yet is crucial to understand key trends, including knowledge and policy related gaps, managing widespread impacts, and prioritizing future efforts. Here, we employ a systematic approach to interrogate ~130,000 international peer‐reviewed climate change articles published between 1990 and 2021. We examine the time–space evolution of research topics and international collaborations, providing insights into broad scale climate change research themes, how they are developed and/or are interconnected. Our analyses indicate that significant thematic adjustments have occurred over the past three decades. Whilst all major areas of climate research have grown in output metrics, there has been a relative shift from understanding the physical science basis toward evaluating climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. There has also been a significant internationalization of climate research with the ratio of international over domestic research increasing from 0.05 in 1990 to nearly 0.60 in 2021. These findings reveal a growing need for collective and coupled adaptation‐mitigation actions to address climate change. The repeatable method and overall results presented herein can help to complement existing large‐scale literature assessments, such as future IPCC reports. This article is categorized under: Climate, History, Society, Culture > Disciplinary Perspectives Integrated Assessment of Climate Change > Methods of Integrated Assessment of Climate Change


Citations (69)


... To describe those who use scientific information to inform decisions, we use the term practitioner to include the many different professions (e.g., coastal managers, planners, emergency managers, and other decision-makers, etc.) and levels of decisionmaking (e.g., cities, regions, states, etc.) Van De Wal et al., 2022). This research domain also highlights the importance of understanding the decisions the users are facing and the context they are situated in as starting points because decisions and context differ from case to case and hence require different decision-making frameworks, which in turn require different kinds of SLR information (Hinkel et al., 2019;Hirschfeld, Boyle, et al., 2024;Jones et al., 2014;Kleindorfer et al., 1993;Simpson et al., 2016). This work also includes an understanding of the decision-making process that accommodate the uncertain and dynamic nature of climate risk (Lempert & Collins, 2007;Marchau et al., 2019;National Research Council (NRC), 2009). ...

Reference:

Practitioners’ Needs for Addressing the Challenges of Sea‐Level Rise—A Qualitative Assessment
Practitioner needs to adapt to Sea-Level Rise: Distilling information from global workshops
  • Citing Article
  • April 2024

Climate Services

... Several previous bibliometric studies have conducted comprehensive analyses on climate-related research, including studies on climate change [33][34][35][36][37][38], climate engineering [39], climate change impacts [40][41][42][43], and climate change adaptation [44][45][46][47]. While systematic literature reviews have been conducted on CPMs [12,14,26,[48][49], to our knowledge, bibliometric analysis has not yet been applied to analyze research on CPMs. ...

Climate change science is evolving toward adaptation and mitigation solutions

Wiley interdisciplinary reviews: Climate Change

... Low-lying coastal regions will face higher risks than other geographic areas. For instance, a 250 mm-300 mm rise in sea level along low-lying coastlines by 2050 will significantly increase the risk of severe flooding, especially in major coastal urban centres (Ohenhen et al., 2024). According to the same study, the rise in relative sea-levels in the US is projected to weaken the effectiveness of current coastal defences by 2050 and flood an extra 1300 sq. ...

Disappearing cities on US coasts

Nature

... During the summer months, beach tourism, the main tourist product of the Greek tourism industry, faces numerous challenges [4]. Increasing temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns impact the overall experience of tourists [4,5], whereas sea level rise may affect coastal erosion and beach quality [6][7][8]. In addition, extreme heat waves, droughts, and heavy rainfall events can reduce the attractiveness of beach destinations, affecting tourist arrivals and revenues [9]. ...

Sea-level rise induced change in exposure of low-lying coastal land: implications for coastal conservation strategies

Anthropocene Coasts

... Building on the work reported in IPCC AR6, Turner et al. (2023) address this need in their pioneering study on sea level rise projections that extend to 2500. Turner et al. (2023) provide new probabilistic, model-based, timecontinuous projections of GMSL rise across centuries for emissions scenarios, which align with the Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement (i.e., RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6 ...

Illustrative Multi‐Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea‐Level Rise and Their Application

... Against this background, the case of rain-induced nuisance flooding in HCMC is an informative example of the changing adaptation requirements arising from local governance, urbanization and climate change, and of the need to combine measures of large-scale centralized adaptation (like the ring dike protecting the center of HCMC) with small-scale decentralized approaches (like private precautionary measures or rainwater retention). Urbanization trends (i.e., concentration of exposed values and vulnerable population groups) and resulting challenges for flood adaptation (e.g., governance in informal settlements, uncontrolled land subsidence etc.) are very similar across many coastal megacities, particularly in the global south (Barragán & Andrés, 2015;Magnan et al., 2023;Wannewitz et al., 2024). Moreover, HCMC's location in the low-elevation coastal zone between the Mekong delta and the Dong Nai and Saigon estuaries make the physical setting comparable to many other coastal cities, particularly in Southeast Asia, for example, Jakarta or Bangkok (Kulp & Strauss, 2019). ...

Status of global coastal adaptation

Nature Climate Change

... In this context, politics and policy have run ahead and adopted the term ''resilience'' to the extent that it currently enjoys widespread, albeit vague, use in many policy documents. 11,79 For operational use in policy sectors, resilience needs to be quantified so that, as a minimum, changes in system state can be tracked. 4 One further important requirement is that any metric must be able to capture the cultural traditions that influence perceptions and the value placed on the constituent components of the system, such as landscape, ecology, safety, prosperity, etc. 80 The multiple dimensions of the systems that we seek to manage mean that there is no single resilience measure. ...

Transitions in modes of coastal adaptation: addressing blight, engagement and sustainability

... They provide vital services, including carbon storage, coastal protection, and food and livelihood support for millions of coastal residents (Brander et al., 2012;Vo et al., 2012;Mohamed et al., 2024). However, these ecosystems face severe threats from deforestation, climate change, and land conversion-particularly in Southeast Asian hotspots like Myanmar, the Philippines, Malaysia, Cambodia, and Indonesia (Primavera, 2008;Gandhi and Jones, 2019;Samanta et al., 2023;Parkinson and Wdowinski, 2022). Encouragingly, recent conservation efforts have slowed the rate of mangrove loss. ...

Exploratory modelling of the impacts of sea-level rise on the Sundarbans mangrove forest, West Bengal, India
  • Citing Article
  • August 2023

The Science of The Total Environment

... Information about the selected hurricanes from the tropical cyclone reports of the National Hurricane Center (Pasch et al., 2006, for Wilma;Stewart, 2017, for Matthew;Cangialosi et al., 2021, for Irma;Pasch et al., 2023, for Maria Marsooli and Lin, 2018;Muis et al., 2019;Toomey et al., 2022;Gori et al., 2023;Parker et al., 2023;Martín et al., 2023) and global hindcasts (Muis et al., 2016;Dullaart et al., 2021). More recently, hydrodynamic models have also been employed to derive projections of storm surges at both regional (Camelo et al., 2020;Makris et al., 2023;Wood et al., 2023) and global (Vousdoukas et al., 2018;Muis et al., 2020Muis et al., , 2023 scales, driven by climate model data. The primary drivers for hydrodynamic models are atmospheric forcings such as winds and atmospheric surface pressure. ...

Climate-induced storminess forces major increases in future storm surge hazard in the South China Sea region

... Although the differences between low-emission and high-emission scenarios in terms of exposure are relatively modest in the short term, these variations are not inconsequential, given the inevitable continued rise in sea level beyond 2050 and its likely acceleration with further warming 9 . Therefore, a long-term proactive and continuous adaptation beyond simple coastal protection would be needed 50 . For the sustainability and resilience of US coastal cities, it is critical to adopt a built-upon multifaceted strategy involving the implementation of adaptive measures, the regulation of subsidence and the implementation of stringent climate-change policies that keep carbon emissions low. ...

Adaptation to multi-meter sea-level rise should start now