Robert J. Barro's research while affiliated with Harvard University and other places

Publications (219)

Article
A key issue for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is whether non-pharmaceutical public-health interventions (NPIs) retard death rates. Good information about causal effects from NPIs comes from flu-related excess deaths in large U.S. cities during the second wave of the Great Influenza Pandemic, September 1918-February 1919. The measured NPIs are in th...
Article
This paper investigates the quantity of safe assets. First, we estimate that the average safe-asset ratio (ratio of safe to total assets) in 34 OECD countries was 37% in 2015. Further, we document that this ratio is relatively stable over time. Second, we build a heterogeneous-agent model with rare disasters and risk aversion coefficients that acco...
Article
Data for 48 countries during the Great Influenza Pandemic imply flu-related deaths in 1918-1920 of 40 million, 2.1 percent of world population, implying 160 million deaths when applied to current population. Regressions with annual information on flu deaths 1918-1920 and war deaths during WWI imply flu-generated economic declines for GDP and consum...
Chapter
Although economic growth has historically been an engine of prosperity in the United States, recent trends have generated uncertainty regarding the prospects for sustaining such growth. Economists disagree about the relative importance of many factors affecting future growth, including rapid technological advances, immigration, the growth of the fi...
Article
Full-text available
İslâm, inananların dünya ve ahiret hayatında felaha ermesini gaye edinir. Müslümanların dünya hayatında makul bir iktisadi refah içinde hayatlarını idame ettirmeleri, kişilerin kulluk bağlamında kendilerinden beklenen sorumlulukları yerine getirebilmeleri açısından gerekli bir şart olarak telakki edilir. Makul iktisadi refahtan kasıt ise servetin b...
Article
The national-income accounts double-count investment, which enters once when it occurs and again in present value as rental income on added capital. The double-counting implies that GDP and national income overstate sustainable consumption. An alternative measure, ‘permanent income,’ equals consumption in the steady state but deviates from consumpt...
Article
The national-income accounts double-count investment, which enters once when it occurs and again in present value as rental income on added capital. The double-counting implies that GDP and national income overstate sustainable consumption. An alternative measure, ‘permanent income,’ equals consumption in the steady state but deviates from consumpt...
Article
We derive an options-pricing formula from recursive preferences and estimate rare disaster probability. The new options-pricing formula applies to far out-of-the-money put options on the stock market when disaster risk dominates, the size distribution of disasters follows a power law, and the economy has a representative agent with a constant-relat...
Article
Rare events (RE) and long-run risks (LRR) are complementary approaches for characterizing macroeconomic variables and understanding asset pricing. We estimate a model with RE and LRR using long-term consumption data for 42 economies, identify these two types of risks simultaneously from the data, and reveal their distinctions. RE typically associat...
Article
Since Pope John Paul II ’s stock-taking of twentieth century martyrs, the Catholic Church has significantly increased the beatification and canonization of martyrs. Not only have the numbers of martyrs increased but the definition of martyrdom has expanded. Using a comprehensive new data set on Catholic martyrs (1588 to 2020), we argue that the Vat...
Article
A discretionary policymaker can create surprise inflation, which may reduce unemployment and raise government revenue. But when people understand the policymaker’s objectives, these surprises can- not occur systematically. In equilibrium people form expectations rationally and the policymaker optimizes in each period, subject to the way that people...
Article
We derive an option-pricing formula from recursive preferences and estimate rare disaster probability. The new options-pricing formula applies to far-out-of-the money put options on the stock market when disaster risk dominates, the size distribution of disasters follows a power law, and the economy has a representative agent with a constant-relati...
Chapter
Recent empirical research on the relation of religion to human capital has focused on the distinction between Mainline Protestantism and Catholicism. Our research emphasizes differential investment in education across types of Protestantism. We apply this framework to Guatemala, a country that was historically dominated by Catholicism but has moved...
Article
Stock-market crashes are informative about the prospects for macroeconomic depressions. Long-term data for 30 countries reveal that, conditional on a crash, the probability of a minor depression is 31 percent and of a major depression is 10 percent. The largest depressions are particularly likely to be accompanied by crashes. We allow for flexible...
Article
From the perspective of conditional convergence, China's GDP growth rate since 1990 has been surprisingly high. However, China cannot deviate forever from the global historical experience, and the per capita growth rate is likely to fall soon from around 8 percent per year to a range of 3–4 percent. China can be viewed as a middle-income convergenc...
Article
The Catholic Church has been making saints for centuries in the two-stage process of beatification and canonization. We analyse determinants of numbers beatified and canonized (non-martyrs) since 1590 across seven world regions. The number beatified is roughly proportional to a pope's tenure and a region's Catholic population, responds positively s...
Article
From 1836 to 2011, gold's average annual real rate of price change is 1.1%, with a standard deviation of 13.1% and a negligible covariance with consumption growth. Because gold does not serve as a hedge against macroeconomic declines, its expected real rate of return should be close to the risk-free rate of around 1%. These properties fit an asset-...
Article
1980’lerin sonundan beri makro-ekonomistler, dikkatlerinin büyük kısmını uzun vadeli ekonomik büyümenin belirleyicilerine odaklandırmış durumdadırlar. Bu makale eğitimin rolünü vurgulamaktadır. Çalışmada yapılan analiz ile eğitimin okula devam edilen yıllarla ölçülen niceliği ile uluslararası düzeyde birbirleri ile karşılaştırılabilecek sınavlarda...
Article
The Stern Review's evaluation of environmental protection stresses low discount rates and uncertainty about environmental effects. An appropriate model for analysing this uncertainty and the associated discount rates requires sufficient risk aversion and fat-tailed uncertainty to account for the observed equity premium. Calibrations based on Epstei...
Article
In recent decades, human capital has emerged as a key area of research for economic development and growth. The increase in economists' interest in human capital reflects theoretical and empirical advances. A theoretical breakthrough appeared in models where schooling and training involved a sacrifice of current time and resources to gain higher fu...
Article
In an 80-country panel since the 1960s, the convergence rate for per capita GDP is around 1.7% per year. This “beta convergence” is conditional on an array of explanatory variables that hold constant countries’ long-run characteristics. The introduction of country fixed effects generates a much higher—and, I argue, misleading—convergence rate. In a...
Article
Estimates of marginal tax rates (MTRs) faced by individual economic agents, and for various aggregates of taxpayers, are important for economists testing behavioural responses to changes in those tax rates. This paper reports estimates of a number of personal marginal income tax rate measures for New Zealand since 1907, focusing mainly on the aggre...
Article
Full-text available
Saint making has been a major activity of the Roman Catholic Church for centuries. The pace of sanctifications has picked up noticeably in the past several decades under the most recent two popes, John Paul II and Benedict XVI. This article explores the economics of sainthood, applying social science reasoning to understand the Church's choices on...
Article
In this short book, Robert Barro, one of the world’s leading economists, examines the causes and consequences of the financial crash. In particular, he looks at the effects of fiscal stimulus packages and suggests that, whilst they may lead to an immediate positive impact on growth, the effect will quickly wear off and the effect of the so-called s...
Article
The potential for rare macroeconomic disasters may explain an array of asset-pricing puzzles. Our empirical studies of these extreme events rely on long-term data now covering 28 countries for consumption and 40 for GDP. A baseline model calibrated with observed peak-to-trough disaster sizes accords with the average equity premium with a reasonable...
Article
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the Indicus team who assisted us in helping collect the data for the India religion survey. For excellent research assistance we thank Rachana Shanbhogue, Abdul Mumit, Paul Sweeny and Nitika Khaitan. For helpful discussions and comments we thank Abstract This paper examines innovations to religious and non-religious service provision by religious o...
Article
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This empirical paper is concerned with the determination of business cycle synchronization. I focus in particular on the role of monetary regimes. Inflation targeting seems to have a small but positive effect on the synchronization of business cycles; countries that target inflation seem to have cycles that move more closely with foreign cycles. Mo...
Article
This paper analyzes the feasibility of various types of currency unions, such as a dollar bloc, Euro bloc, Yen bloc, and basket currency bloc in East Asia, and empirically estimates welfare effects of a currency union for East Asian economies. Judging from optimum currency area (OCA) criteria, including the symmetry of output and price shocks acros...
Article
This chapter analyzes the effects of the formation of a regional trade agreement on the level and nature of multinational firm activity. This chapter examines aggregate data that capture the response of United States (US) multinational firms to the formation of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) free trade agreement. Observed patter...
Article
Full-text available
The Catholic Church has been making saints for centuries, typically in a two-stage process featuring beatification and canonization. We analyze determinants of rates of beatification and canonization (for non-martyrs) over time and across six world regions. The research uses a recently assembled data set on numbers and characteristics of beatifieds...
Article
For U.S. annual data that include World War II, the estimated multiplier for temporary defense spending is 0.4--0.5 contemporaneously and 0.6--0.7 over 2 years. If the change in defense spending is "permanent" (gauged by Ramey's defense news variable), the multipliers are higher by 0.1--0.2. Since all estimated multipliers are significantly less th...
Article
Europe experienced a "Commercial Revolution" in the late Middle Ages. We present new data that document this transformation using information on city incorporation and market establishment. We then test whether universities played a causal role in expanding economic activity, examining the consequences of their exogenous establishment in Germany fo...
Article
Ethnic and religious fractionalization have various causal effects on economic growth and development, but their role in internal violent conflicts has been found to be negli-gible and statistically insignificant. Mostly on this basis, differences of ethnic, religious and cultural identities as the ultimate determinants of violent conflict have oft...
Article
Our panel data set on educational attainment has been updated for 146 countries from 1950 to 2010. The data are disaggregated by sex and by 5-year age intervals. We have improved the accuracy of estimation by using information from consistent census data, disaggregated by age group, along with new estimates of mortality rates and completion rates b...
Article
We estimate an empirical model of consumption disasters using a new panel data set on personal consumer expenditure for 24 countries and more than 100 years, and study its implications for asset prices. The model allows for permanent and transitory effects of disasters that unfold over multiple years. It also allows the timing of disasters to be co...
Article
Using data from the International Social Survey Program and the World Values Survey about current and former religious adherence, we calculate country-level religious-conversion rates for 40 countries. Drawing upon a theoretical model based on rational individual choice, we posit that the frequency of religious conversion depends on the cost of swi...
Article
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Religious pluralism characterized Tibetan Buddhism by the eleventh-twelfth century, allowing for the development of many schools and sects with little differentiation in religious products. The Ming dynasty (1368-1424) represented a significant shift from the policy that was put in place by the Mongolian Yuan dynasty (1271-1368) vis-à-vis Tibetan a...
Article
Many theories, most famously Max Weber's essay on the "Protestant ethic," have hypothe-sized that Protestantism should have favored economic development. With their considerable religious heterogeneity and stability of denominational affiliations until the 19th century, the German Lands of the Holy Roman Empire present an ideal testing ground for t...
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We examine the relationship between the rapid pace of trade and financial globalization and the rise in income inequality observed in most countries over the past two decades. Us-ing a panel of 51 countries over a 23 year period from 1981-2003, we find that technological progress has had a greater impact than globalization on inequality. The limite...
Article
In the rare-disasters setting, a key determinant of the equity premium is the size distribution of macroeconomic disasters, gauged by proportionate declines in per capita consumption or GDP. The long-term national-accounts data for up to 36 countries provide a large sample of disaster events of magnitude 10% or more. For this sample, a power-law de...
Article
Long-term data for 25 countries up to 2006 reveal 195 stock-market crashes (multi-year real returns of -25% or less) and 84 depressions (multi-year macroeconomic declines of 10% or more), with 58 of the cases matched by timing. The United States has two of the matched events—the Great Depression 1929-33 and the post-WWI years 1917-21, likely driv...
Article
Recent evaluations of the fiscal stimulus packages enacted in 2009 in the United States and Europe such as Cogan et al. (2009) and Cwik and Wieland (2009) suggest that the GDP effects will be modest due to crowding out of private consumption and investment. Corsetti, Meier, and M�ller (2009, 2010) argue that spending shocks are typically followed b...
Article
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We build on Angus Maddison's data by assembling international time series from before 1914 on real per capita personal consumer expenditure, C, and by improving the GDP data. We have full annual data on C for twenty-four countries and GDP for thirty-six. For samples starting at 1870, we apply a peak-to-trough method to isolate economic crises, defi...
Article
A representative-consumer model with Epstein-Zin-Weil preferences and i.i.d. shocks, including rare disasters, accords with key asset-pricing observations. If the coefficient of relative risk aversion equals 3-4, the model accords with observed equity premia and risk-free real interest rates. If the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is great...
Article
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U.S.-based private and voluntary organizations (PVOs) play an important role in international assistance. To assess this role, the authors constructed a new data set that covers more than 1,600 secular and religious PVOs that registered with the U.S. federal government between 1939 and 2004. In the post—World War II period, major revenue patterns a...
Article
"We develop a new instrumental-variable (IV) approach to estimate the effects of different exchange rate regimes on bilateral outcomes. The basic idea is that the characteristics of the exchange rate between two countries are partially related to the independent decisions of these countries to peg-explicitly or de facto-to a third currency, notably...
Article
Satisfactory calculations of the welfare cost of aggregate consumption uncertainty require a framework that replicates major features of asset prices and returns, such as the high equity premium and low risk-free rate. A Lucas-tree model with rare but large disasters is such a framework. In a baseline simulation, the welfare cost of disaster risk i...
Article
The potential for rare economic disasters explains a lot of asset-pricing puzzles. I calibrate disaster probabilities from the twentieth century global history, especially the sharp contractions associated with World War I, the Great Depression, and World War II. The puzzles that can be explained include the high equity premium, low risk-free rate,...
Article
Two important theories of religiosity are the secularization hypothesis and the religion-market model. According to the former, sometimes called a demand-side theory, economic development reduces religious participation and beliefs. According to the latter, described as a supply-side theory, religiosity depends on the presence of a state religion,...
Article
Full-text available
We have constructed a new and substantial data set from 1939 to 2004 on U.S.-based private voluntary organizations (PVOs) engaged in international relief and development. The universe comprises PVOs registered with the federal government (U.S. Agency for International Development since the early 1960s). PVOs are classified by type among secular and...
Article
Shifts in the extent of competition, which affect markups, are possible sources of aggregate fluctuations. Markups are countercyclical; during booms the economy operates more efficiently. In our benchmark model, markups correspond to the prices of differentiated inputs relative to that of undifferentiated final product. If nominal prices of differe...
Article
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Religion has a two-way interaction with political economy. With religion viewed as a dependent variable, a central question is how economic development and political institutions affect religious participation and beliefs. With religion viewed as an independent variable, a key issue is how religiosity affects individual characteristics, such as wor...
Article
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Among 188 countries, 72 had no state religion in 2000,1970, and 1900; 58 had a state religion throughout; and 58 had 1 or 2 transitions. We use a Hotelling spatial competition model to analyze the likelihood that the religion market would be monopolized. Similar forces influence a government's decision to establish a state religion. Consistent with...
Article
A vast and often confusing economics literature relates competition to investment in innovation. Following Joseph Schumpeter, one view is that monopoly and large scale promote investment in research and development by allowing a firm to capture a larger fraction of its benefits and by providing a more stable platform for a firm to invest in R&D. Ot...
Article
Full-text available
Two important theories of religiosity are the secularization hypothesis and the religion-market model. According to the former theory, economic development reduces religious participation and beliefs. According to the latter theory, religiosity depends on the presence of a state religion, regulation of the religion market, suppression of organized...
Article
Full-text available
Empirical research on the determinants of economic growth typically neglects the influence of religion. To fill this gap, this study uses international survey data on religiosity for a broad panel of countries to investigate the effects of church attendance and religious beliefs on economic growth. To isolate the direction of causation from religio...
Article
Full-text available
Empirical research on the determinants of economic growth has typically neglected the influence of religion. To fill this gap, we use international survey data on religiosity for a broad panel of countries to investigate the effects of church attendance and religious beliefs on economic growth. To isolate the direction of causation from religiosity...
Article
Growth rates vary enormously across countries over long periods of time. The reason for these variations is a central issue for economic policy, and crosscountry empirical work on this topic has been popular since the early 1990s. The findings from cross-country panel regressions show that the differences in per capita growth rates relate systemati...
Conference Paper
As the number of independent countries increases and their economies become more integrated, we would expect to observe more multicountry currency unions. This paper explores the pros and cons for different countries to adopt as an anchor the dollar, the euro, or the yen. Although there appear to be reasonably well-defined euro and dollar areas, th...
Article
Economic and political developments affect religiosity, and the extent of religious participation and beliefs influence economic performance and political institutions. We study these two directions of causation in a broad cross-country panel that includes survey information over the last 20 years on church attendance and an array of religious beli...
Article
IMF loans react to economic conditions but are also sensitive to political-economy variables. Loans tend to be larger and more frequent when a country has a bigger quota and more professional staff at the IMF and when a country is more connected politically and economically to the United States and major European countries. These results are of con...
Article
As the number of independent countries increases and their economies become more integrated, we would expect to observe more multi-country currency unions. This paper explores the pros and cons for different countries to adopt as an anchor the dollar, the euro, or the yen. Although there appear to be reasonably well-defined euro and dollar areas, t...
Article
Common currencies affect trading costs and, thereby, the amounts of trade, output, and consumption. From the perspective of monetary policy, the adoption of another country's currency trades off the benefits of commitment to price stability (if a committed anchor is selected) against the loss of an independent stabilization policy. We show that the...
Article
Most cross-country studies of economic performance have focused on narrow economic variables. The present study emphasizes instead some quality dimensions of economic development, including health, fertility, income distribution, political institutions, crime, and religion. The data reveal a regular pattern in which economic development goes along...
Article
9 Since the late 1980s, much of the attention of macroeconomists has focused on long-term issues, notably the effects of govern-ment policies on the long-run rate of economic growth. This emphasis reflects the recognition that the difference between prosperity and poverty for a country depends on how fast it grows over the long term. Although stand...
Article
Why do countries participate in currency unions or unilaterally adopt a foreign currency? I investigate the roles of geography, synchronization of economic shocks, cultural similarity, size, political integration and colonial heritage as determinants of monetary unions. The results motivate a selection model for common currency areas, which I then...
Article
This paper presents a newly constructed panel data-set that includes output and input measures of schooling quality for a broad number of countries. Based on this data-set, we investigate the determinants of educational quality. The results show that family inputs and school resources are closely related to school outcomes, as measured by internati...
Article
In 1997-98, five east Asian countries -- Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand -- experienced sharp currency and banking crises. The contraction of real GDP was severe in relation to the previous history and in comparison with five east Asian countries that were less affected by the financial crisis. Recoveries in the five...
Article
This study analyzes the effects of right-wing extremism on the well-being of immigrants based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) for the years 1984 to 2006 merged with state-level information on election outcomes. The results show that the life satisfaction of immigrants is significantly reduced if right-wing extremism in the nativ...
Article
This paper presents a data set that improves the measurement of educational attainment for a broad group of countries. We extend our previous estimates to 1995 for educational attainment for the population over ages 15 and 25. We also provide projections for 2000. We discuss the estimation method for the measures of educational attainment and relat...
Article
This paper presents a newly constructed panel data-set that includes output and input measures of schooling quality for a broad number of countries. Based on this data-set, we investigate the determinants of educational quality. The results show that family inputs and school resources are closely related to school outcomes, as measured by internati...
Article
Evidence from a broad panel of countries shows little overall relation between income inequality and rates of growth and investment. For growth, higher inequality tends to retard growth in poor countries and encourage growth in richer places. The Kuznets curve--whereby inequality first increases and later decreases during the process of economic de...
Chapter
Since the late 1980s, much of the attention of macroeconomists has focused on long-term issues, specifically, on the effects of government policies on the long-term rate of economic growth. This emphasis reflects partly the recognition that the difference between prosperity and poverty for a country depends on how fast it grows over the long term....
Article
The fact that crossing a political border dramatically reduces trade flows has been widely documented in the literature. The increasing number of borders has surprisingly attracted much less attention. The number of independent countries has indeed risen from 72 in 1948 to 192 today. This paper estimates the effect of political disintegration since...
Article
Evidence from a broad panel of countries shows little overall relation between income inequality and rates of growth and investment. However, for growth, higher inequality tends to retard growth in poor countries and encourage growth in richer places. The Kuznets curve-whereby inequality first increases and later decreases during the process of eco...
Article
The neoclassical growth model is modified to include a variable rate of time preference. With no commitment ability and log utility, the equilibrium features a constant effective rate of time preference and is observationally equivalent to the standard model. The extended framework yields testable linkages between the extent of commitment ability a...
Article
Growth accounting breaks down economic growth into components associated with changes in factor inputs and the Solow residual, which reflects technological progress and other elements. After a presentation of the standard model, the analysis considers dual approaches to growth accounting (which considers changes in factor prices rather than quantit...
Article
A panel study of over 100 countries from 1960 to 1995 finds that improvements in the standard of living predict increase in democracy, as measured by a subjective indicator of electoral rights. The propensity for democracy rises with per capita GDP, primary schooling, and a smaller gap between male and female primary attainment. For a given standar...
Book
Research on economic growth has exploded in the past decade. Hundreds of empirical studies on economic growth across countries have highlighted the correlation between growth and a variety of variables. Determinants of Economic Growth, based on Robert Barro's Lionel Robbins Memorial Lectures, delivered at the London School of Economics in February...
Article
A tax-smoothing objective is used to assess the optimal composition of public debt with respect to maturity and contingencies. This objective motivates the government to make its debt payouts contingent on the levels of public outlay and the tax base. If these contingencies are present, but asset prices of non-contingent indexed debt are stochastic...

Citations

... Further, he mentions that this public health policy reduces the death rate over the short run, especially when the death rate is at its peak. Moreover, [21] analyzes the impact of three measures of public health interventions, including school closure, prohibitions on public gatherings, and isolation on the excess death rate of 1918 influenza across 45 large U.S. cities. His findings confirm the negative and significant association between non-pharmaceutical interventions and the peak of the extra death rate. ...
... The recent pandemic also had a negative effect on volatility in the market. Research papers around the world show an increase in volatility coinciding with the outbreak of the pandemic (Ali et al. 2020;Barro et al. 2022;Chowdhury et al. 2021;David et al. 2020;Mishra and Mishra 2021;Sheraz and Nasir 2021;Uddin et al. 2021). Gao et al. (2021) find that the impact of COVID-19 on the stock market showed a significant leverage effect in both the US and China, imposing a stronger effect on the stock market volatility when it was already high. ...
... Indeed, COVID19 is one of the remarkable pandemics in the last century (World Health Organization [3][4][5]. The mortality rate is one of the major complications of the pandemic. ...
... Their line of argument is that consumption of fixed capital, which is equal to the gap between gross and net value added, are resources that are not available for consumption or net investment in fixed capital. The measure of the share of employee compensation in the total payout to factors of production proposed in this paper is closer conceptually to the measurement of factor shares proposed in Barro (2019). See in particular, section II.A of that paper. ...
... Stock market performance reacts to major unexpected and expected events [4], including political events [5], environmental issues [6], disasters [7], news [8], and sports events [9]. Stock markets also respond to pandemic outbreaks [10,11], e.g., SARS [12][13][14], MERS, and a short-term perspective, but this relationship turned out to be negative when analysed in the long-term. ...
... Their results suggest that not only the sign but also the magnitude of the effect, is heavily dependent on the level of economic development a country has as well as on the severity of the disasters. Lastly our paper is closely related to the work of Wachter (2013) and Barro and Jin (2016), in the sense that we are also examining the possible economic implications of rare events. ...
... The modern literature on the problem of time-inconsistency started with the seminal contribution of Kydland and Prescott (1977). Barro and Gordon (1983) followed in their footsteps and provided a positive theory of inflation according to which policymakers' use of discretionary policies to attain short-term unemployment objectives could account for the experience of the 1970s. These works rely on rational expectations models of the Phillips curve that, given expectations, involve a short run trade-off between inflation and unemployment. ...
... This chapter seeks to give an overview of relevant research, and to give an answer as to whether there are links between Protestantism and economic growth. Barro (2019), McCleary (2006) and argue that there is clear evidence on the empirical relationship between Protestantism and economic growth, which could be observed through centuries. Becker, Pfaff, and Rubin (2016), Becker, Rubin, and Woessmann (2021), and Grytten (2020) through literature studies, conclude that a huge majority of published research find there is a relationship, but they disagree on the explanations. ...
... For both values of θ, we also report the proportion of time periods in the downside regime D, denoted as π D , and the corresponding number of time periods, denoted as T D . In Panel A we also report the correlation between the downside indicator functions implicitly defined by both θ and θ, and the following variables: REC is the NBER U.S. recession indicator; ∆IP is the log difference of industrial production; VIX is the CBOE volatility index based on S&P 500 index options; VXO is the CBOE volatility index based on S&P 100 index options; EPU is the economic policy uncertainty index of Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016); EMV is the Equity Market Volatility tracker of Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016); PREMV is the Policy-Related Equity Market Volatility tracker of Baker, Bloom, Davis, and Kost (2019); GPR is the Geopolitical Risk index of Caldara and Iacoviello (2018); TED is the TED spread; SPX is the disaster probability for the U.S. of Barro and Liao (2021); T10Y2Y is the spread for the T-bill between 10 and 2 year maturities. In Panel B we report p-values for tests based on Section A.2. ...
... Moreover, denominational differences confirm that economic considerations mattered for missionary expansion. Mainline Protestants depended more on local contributions and valued entrepreneurship and education (Barro and McCleary 2017). As such, their missionaries had to be better trained, which made the issue of their low tropical life expectancy particularly acute. ...