January 2024
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1 Read
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January 2024
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1 Read
November 2023
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11 Reads
We propose that the natural rate of unemployment has an active role in the business cycle, in contrast to the prevailing view that the rate is essentially constant. We demonstrate that this tendency to treat the natural rate as near-constant would explain the surprisingly low slope of the Phillips curve. We show that the natural rate closely tracked the actual rate during the long recovery that began in 2009 and ended in 2020. We explain how the common finding of research in the Phillips-curve framework of low-often extremely low-response of inflation to unemployment could be the result of fairly close tracking of the natural rate and the actual rate in recoveries. Our interpretation of the data contrasts to that of most Phillips-curve studies, that conclude that inflation has little relation to unemployment. We suggest that the at Phillips curve is an illusion caused by assuming that the natural rate of unemployment has little or no movement during recoveries.
January 2023
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2 Reads
SSRN Electronic Journal
January 2023
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1 Read
SSRN Electronic Journal
August 2022
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27 Reads
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24 Citations
Labour Economics
Potential workers are classified as unemployed if they seek work but are not working. The unemployed population contains two groups—those with jobs and those without jobs. Those with jobs are on furlough or temporary layoff. This group expanded tremendously in April 2020, at the trough of the pandemic recession. They wait out periods of non-work with the understanding that their jobs still exist and that they will be recalled. We show that the resulting temporary-layoff unemployment mostly dissipated by the end of 2020. Potential workers without jobs constitute what we call jobless unemployment. Shocks that elevate jobless unemployment have much more persistent effects. Historical major adverse shocks, such as the financial crisis in 2008, created mostly jobless unemployment and consequently caused extended periods of elevated unemployment. Jobless unemployment reached its pandemic peak in November 2020, at 4.9%, modest by historical standards, and has declined at a faster-than-historical pace since.
July 2022
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10 Reads
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2 Citations
Journal of Monetary Economics
Unemployment recoveries in the US have been inexorable. In the aftermath of a recession, unless another crisis intervenes, unemployment continues to glide down. Between 1948 and 2019, the annual reduction in the unemployment rate during cyclical recoveries was distributed around 0.1 log points per year. The economy seems to have an irresistible force toward restoring full employment. Occasionally, unemployment rises rapidly during an economic crisis, while most of the time, unemployment declines slowly and smoothly at a near-constant proportional rate. Similar properties hold for other measures of the US unemployment rate and for unemployment in emerging and advanced countries.
May 2022
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4 Reads
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5 Citations
NBER Macroeconomics Annual
January 2022
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6 Reads
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9 Citations
SSRN Electronic Journal
January 2022
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4 Reads
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1 Citation
SSRN Electronic Journal
September 2021
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10 Reads
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22 Citations
Review of Economic Studies
We develop a simple flexible-price model of business cycles driven by spikes in risk premiums. Aggregate shocks increase firms’ uninsurable idiosyncratic risk and raise risk premiums. We show that risk shocks can create quantitatively plausible recessions, with contractions in employment, consumption, and investment. Business cycles are inefficient—output, employment, and consumption fall too much during recessions, compared to the constrained-efficient allocation. Optimal policy involves stimulating employment and consumption during recessions.
... In either case, our DiD estimates indicate that social distancing policies contributed substantially to recent job losses in addition to the economic slowdown caused by the threat of the virus itself, and it is now clear that state reopenings have not fully reversed economic losses associated with the Spring 2020 shutdowns. Studies find that official state reopenings at the end of April-early May 2020 have contributed a modest 0%-4% increase in employment and slowed down further job losses among those employed (Cheng et al., 2020;Chetty et al., 2020;Hall & Kudlyak, 2020). Moreover, many of those who were reemployed appear to have returned to their previous employment, with the rate of reemployment decreasing with time since job loss. ...
July 2021
... Our paper also speaks to the literature on the aggregate and cyclical effects of temporary layoffs, like Gertler et al. (2022) or Hall and Kudlyak (2022). 7 As these authors suggest, temporary 4 For example, Arranz et al. (2018) find that short-time work measures during the Great Recession saved some jobs in Spain, though the effect was small given that very few firms adopted this job retention program. ...
August 2022
Labour Economics
... Personal financial pressures reduce consumer expenditure, which may cause recessions. Long-term unemployment can damage mental and physical health, skills, and the economy Hall & Kudlyak (2020). ...
July 2022
Journal of Monetary Economics
... Personal financial pressures reduce consumer expenditure, which may cause recessions. Long-term unemployment can damage mental and physical health, skills, and the economy Hall & Kudlyak (2020). ...
January 2022
SSRN Electronic Journal
... In Europe, these appeared for the second and third quarter of 2020 almost stable with respect to the pre-pandemic period, 8 while undergoing wild up and downs in the USA. In the latter country, the fact that the rate of unemployment exploded to 14.8 percent in April 2020 while steadily decreasing in the following months (for example it was 6.9 in October and 6.7 in November, according to BLS data), has soon induced some authors (Hall and Kudlyak, 2020;Gallant et al, 2020) to maintain that the dramatic increase in unemployment consisted mainly of temporary lay-offs and was to be soon re-absorbed almost entirely. 9 However, the second quarter of 2020 has been also characterized by sharp falls in participation rates and generalized reductions in working hours. ...
January 2022
SSRN Electronic Journal
... Duration. Hall and Kudlyak (2021) find that recoveries from unemployment shocks regularly occur following a proportional factor ρ ∈ (0, 1) -that is, given an initial employment shock x 0 , thereafter x t+1 = x t × ρ. Based on employment data from across the OECD, 27 we calculate a proportional factor of ρ = 0.7143 (see Web Appx. ...
January 2020
SSRN Electronic Journal
... Amid prevailing circumstances and crises, the number of unemployed engineers is on the rise globally (Hall and Kudlyak, 2020). However, until 2017, universities worldwide continued to graduate from a significant number of engineers (Y. ...
January 2020
SSRN Electronic Journal
... It is always better to be contented with the speed the business take. This finding is in line with the previous studies in the literature that impatience of the entrepreneur results in an incorrect assessment of investment and they tend to make short-run trade-offs rather than long-term (Tella and Hall, 2020). Impatience can lead to hasty conclusions and eventually result in the self-sabotage of the start-up (Wood and Bakker, 2018). ...
January 2020
SSRN Electronic Journal
... These issues include the large volatility of unemployment relative to wages (Adjemian et al., 2021); the pattern of recovery from deep and shallow recessions (Hall and Kudlyak, 2021); the negative relationship between the duration of unemployment and the job finding rate of unemployed workers, and the impact of job loss of subsequent earnings (Gregory et al., 2021); and the slope of the Phillips Curve and the equilibrium rate of unemployment (Abriti and Consolo, 2022). These models all assume there are differences in productivity between otherwise identical workers 1 . ...
August 2021
... The persistent influence of early infection rates outweighed contemporaneous effects and contributed to larger year-overyear employment reductions in very large MSAs through September and October 2020. The persistent effects may reflect some combination of reduced labor demand, reduced labor supply, and labor market frictions that prevent quick employer-employee re-matching during the economic recovery (Hall & Kudlyak, 2021). ...
May 2020